First impressions of every WNBA team
Matthew Coller dives into key Her Hoop Stats statistics for each team that tell an early story of their direction
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It’s still extremely early in the WNBA season but with a handful of games under its belt we are seeing the league begin to take shape. What are the first impressions of each team? Strengths? Weaknesses? What could give each team a chance or bring them down? What have been the biggest surprises? Let’s have a look, club by club…
Atlanta Dream (2-2)
Key stat: Ranks 2nd in points per 100 possessions (105.0), up from 9th in 2023
The biggest question about the Dream coming into the season was: How did they actually get better from last year? They didn’t make any major power moves in the offseason or change coaches. What was supposed to be different this time around from their 19-21 record and first-round exit from the playoffs?
The answer thus far has been two things: Tina Charles providing depth scoring and Rhyne Howard playing more efficient basketball. In 2023 the fourth- best scorer on the Dream averaged just 7.9 points per game (Aari McDonald). They relied heavily on Howard, Allisha Gray and Cheyenne Parker-Tyus to carry the offensive load. Charles’s 13.3 points per game as the fourth scorer this year has made them that extra shade deeper and a little more flexible lineup wise.
Howard’s efficiency to start the year is a dream scenario for Atlanta. Her 2-point percentage is up over 10% from last season, raising her overall field- goal percentage mark to a respectable 45.9%. That type of efficiency mixed with the volume of 15 shots per game from Howard would put her in rare air.
Does that mean they have been convincing as a top- tier contender? Not yet. Howard has had stretches of tremendous play before that have been followed by cold streaks. Consistency is the key to being a true star in the W.
Also, how long will Charles hold up? At 35 years old she’s playing 30 minutes per game. And at some point they need Haley Jones to prove she was worth a top draft pick. She has added just 4.5 points and 4.3 assists per game while only shooting 37.5%.
Overall, Atlanta looks pretty similar to previous iterations. What’s the path to breaking through? With Howard playing well and Charles in her twilight, it would make sense for the Dream to look at trade options to push them over the hump.
Chicago Sky
Key stat: Ranks 11th in 3-point rate (22.2%) and 8th in 3-point percentage (32.4%)
Are the Sky rebuilding? Not really. Are the Sky competing? Sorta. The roster is more of an odd collection of reclamation projects than young players on the rise or stars in their prime. They are hoping to find gems in the form of Diamond DeShields, Chennedy Carter, Michaela Onyenwere and Kysre Gondredick. Each fell out of favor for one reason or another, but there is an argument that there could be upside to giving them a chance.
That makes the Sky interesting from a storyline perspective, but it doesn’t appear likely that they will be truly competitive unless DeShields and Carter play like All-Stars.
The only young player in their lineup is Angel Reese, who is getting tons of opportunities with 29 minutes per game but is only shooting 35.7% from the floor so far. At some point, they will get Kamilla Cardoso back and work her into the lineup with veteran center Elizabeth Williams. Oftentimes, players her size have a steep development curve (see: McCowan, Teaira) so it would be best not to rush her.
What does that make the Sky? The harshest view would be that they are a middling team with no clear path to escape that standing. The sunniest perspective is that they could be the home of the redemption story in the W this year and establish major pieces going forward where there appeared to be none.
Connecticut Sun
Key stat: Ranks last in opponent effective field goal percentage (52.9%)
The Sun are off to a tremendous start, making a strong case to get coveted attention among the many WNBA power rankers. They are a deep scoring team with five players in double digits per game, and they are still scoring 86.6 points per game (fifth) despite playing at the slowest pace in the league.
There are a few things about the Sun on paper that raise an eyebrow. Offensively they are last in 3-point percentage and 10th in 3-point rate. Defensively the typically hard-nosed Sun have allowed opponents to make 53.1% of their 2-point shots, second worst in the league. Last year they were fourth best in opponent field- goal percentage, this year they are last.
Is this a matter of small sample size or a concerning signal?
So far DeWanna Bonner is only shooting 20.7% from 3-point range and DiJonai Carrington is 1-for-10. Last year Bonner made 32.9% and Carrington 37.1%. They will get going eventually. However, the Sun rank 10th in percentage of attempts coming from beyond the arc. It’s unlikely that they will be a dangerous 3-point team, which could limit their ceiling versus other top offenses.
Defensively things are more concerning. The Sun have played only one team with an impressive offense (Minnesota). The success by opponents against them hasn’t come just because of a hot 3-point shooting run (53.1% opponent 2-point percentage).
Make no mistake, criticisms of a 5-0 team are nitpicks. They are right in the mix with Las Vegas, Minnesota and New York as the league’s best team.
Dallas Wings
Key stat: Ranks 2nd in opponent effective field- goal percentage (45.1%)
An injury to Natasha Howard has exposed Dallas’s lack of scoring depth. They have relied heavily on Arike Ogunbowale, who is averaging 28.8 points per game, to carry them offensively with hopes that players like Monique Billings and Teaira McCowan can add something in the paint. Against Phoenix, second-year player Maddy Siegrist had a breakout performance with 22 points and followed that up with 15 more against Los Angeles, but it’s unclear whether she can do that on a nightly basis.
Their answer has been to play at a high tempo around Ogunbowale and protect the rim on defense. Even if they haven’t been the most efficient squad (9th in effective field- goal percentage) the Wings are getting a lot of shots up, ranking No. 1 in possessions per 40 minutes. On defense they are No. 1 in the WNBA in opposing 2-point field- goal percentage. The combination of McCowan, Billings, Kalani Brown and Stephanie Soares gives them more size than most under the basket.
The concern, always and forever with the Wings, is Ogunbowale’s volatility. Against Phoenix on Saturday she scored 40 points on 11-for-24 shooting and then followed that up with a 7-for-30 showing on Sunday. That has typically been who she is.
Howard’s eventual return will help, but she can’t solve all the scoring depth issues herself. Dallas either needs to see a major blow up from Siegrist and more contributions from recent draft picks Soares, Jacy Sheldon and Lou Lopez Sénéchal or they need to consider making a move for more scoring. Otherwise this team won’t have enough in the tank offensively to fight for the top spots in the W.
Indiana Fever
Key stat: Ranks last in opponent points per 100 possessions with 108.4, which is 3.4 points worse than the worst team in the league last year
Where do we even start with the Fever. Drafting Caitlin Clark may have created some unreasonable expectations for Indiana, but nobody would have expected them to get blasted in four of their six losses and rank last by a country mile in point differential per game.
Clark has very much looked like a rookie, shooting just 37.1% and turning the ball over 5.3 times per game while struggling mightily on defense. But the Fever’s troubles go well beyond one player. Everyone is underperforming their previous play, especially Alliyah Boston, who has just 10.1 points per game at 42.9% shooting.
Kelsey Mitchell hasn’t been her typical self when it comes to either scoring or efficiency. NaLyssa Smith is down five points per game from last year. Katie Lou Samuelson, a 3-point specialist, is just 8-for-29 (27.6%) from beyond the arc. Erica Wheeler is down six points per game and Grace Berger, who looked like she could be on the rise last year, can’t get on the floor.
This team is in complete disarray. Head coach Christie Sides is changing lineups every game, including surprisingly bringing Smith off the bench against the Aces. There have been only a few moments where the team has looked like it had any chemistry or comfort with its scheme.
That could be a product of an absolutely brutal schedule to start the season, but there are lots of questions here. At what point would Sides reduce the minutes of her uber-popular star in favor of more experienced players? How can they get Boston and Mitchell going like they were last year?
Yes, it’s extremely early in the season, but the first impression of the Fever is that they look like a lottery team… again… yet, on paper, they should have the talent to be competing for a playoff spot.
Las Vegas Aces
Key stat: Leads the league in points per 100 possessions (107.7) but last in opponent 3-point percentage (41.8%)
The star players who led the Aces to a championship last year have looked the part, but without Chelsea Gray in the lineup some of their depth issues have been more apparent. A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Kelsey Plum are each averaging more than 20 points per game and the next top scorer has 8.3 (Alysha Clark). Young and Plum are also averaging more than 35 minutes per game, which puts them in the top five in minutes per game.
The Aces’ offense has been just fine running through their superstars as Young has been an excellent facilitator. They rank No. 1 in points per 100 possessions, and Young has 7.8 assists per game with fewer than two turnovers per contest. But defensively they have not been the same. Last year the Aces were second best in the WNBA in opponent field- goal percentage and first in opponent points per play. This year they are ninth in both categories. Las Vegas is particularly getting beaten beyond the 3-point line with the opposition making 41.8% from deep.
As long as Wilson is playing like one of the best players in the history of the game and her All-Star cohorts keep up their end then the Aces will be able to weather the storm until Gray comes back. But they either need more offense from Clark, center Kia Stokes and rookie Kate Martin coming off the bench or they need to acquire someone who can give them minutes. It is interesting that Becky Hammon hasn’t shown a ton of trust for former first-rounder Kierstan Bell, who has been banged up early this year.
The Aces are still the gold standard of the WNBA and nothing that has happened to start the year has knocked them off that pedestal but they have more concerns about mileage and depth than last season.
Los Angeles Sparks
Key stat: Ranks 10th in points per game (76.5)
While Dearica Hamby has come out of the gate very strong, the rest of the roster is stocked with journeywomen and players who are too young to move the needle. The Sparks are asking two up-and-down guards Kia Nurse and Lexie Brown to play more than 30 minutes per game and produce consistently.
However, the Sparks do have a good case as a team of the future. Brink and Jackson have gotten off to good starts with the former Stanford star producing 10.8 points, 5.8 rebounds and 3.2 blocks per game and the ex-Vol racking up 9.8 points per game at 54.8% from the field. This season is going to be about developing them and looking for progress from young guard Zia Cooke and Li Yueru.
The Sparks look like a team that will be in line for a lottery pick in next year’s draft. They also look like a team that could be very good in 2025 and 2026.
Minnesota Lynx
Key stat: Ranks 1st in net margin (9.5)
Coming into the season the consensus on the Lynx seemed to be that they were a mid-pack team. A couple of weeks into the year we can definitively say that they are a legitimate contender. Napheesa Collier is looking like an MVP candidate, averaging 24 points, 11 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals and 2 blocks per game, and the team’s veteran additions have paid off in spades.
In particular, Alanna Smith flew under the radar as a big-time signing. She has been blazing hot from the 3-point line to start the year and has proven capable of carrying a heavy offensive and defensive load with over 30 minutes per game. Courtney Williams and Natisha Hiedeman have added quality veteran minutes to the back court.
The Lynx’s stellar start has also been driven by the players who have been under head coach Cheryl Reeve for some time. Kayla McBride went berserk against the Dream with 31 points, raising her season average to nearly 14 per game. Bridget Carleton and Dorka Juhász have developed into quality role players. And they could get even deeper when Diamond Miller returns from her knee injury.
Sometimes star power gets the most attention but the Lynx have a squad that goes eight players deep, giving them an edge over most teams. If Phee continues to play at her present level, they will have a strong argument as the most complete team in the WNBA.
New York Liberty
Key stat: Scoring is down from 89.2 points per game to 83.3
It was reasonable to think that the Liberty would immediately click even better than they did last year simply because they had a full season playing together under their belt. But right out of the gate in 2024 that has not been the case. Their scoring is down from 89.2 points per game to 83.3 per contest, and they got run out of Minnesota by the Lynx on Saturday in an 84-67 loss.
It might be as simple as bad shooting luck. Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart and Courtney Vandersloot are all shooting under 30% from 3-point land. That will likely not continue over the long haul.
Over the next week they have matchups against Phoenix, Washington, Indiana, Chicago and Atlanta, which should give them a chance to get rolling. If they are still looking different from last year after that stretch, then it might be worth asking what’s going on.
Even if the eye test looks like the chemistry isn’t quite there and the offense tends to go stagnant, the Liberty get the benefit of the doubt for now. They have too much talent to rank in the bottom four in scoring.
Phoenix Mercury
Key stat: Ranks No. 1 in possessions per 40 minutes (86.7), up from last in 2023 (80.5)
Give the Mercury this: They are fun as heck. They are playing at the fastest pace in the league, firing up the most 3-pointers and allowing the second most points per game. Kahleah Copper is playing like an MVP, and Diana Taurasi is shooting like it’s 2014 again with 19.0 points per game at over 40% from deep. Natasha Cloud has been a terrific facilitator of the offense, averaging 8.8 assists per game.
The problem is that the Mercury do not have much else to work with. Sophie Cunningham is still a quality secondary scorer and 3-point ace, but they have no size to battle down low with the bigger teams. Natasha Mack, a bounce-around forward, is playing heavy minutes against tough competition.
Where they will become really interesting is when Brittney Griner returns. If the Mercury can continue the fast pace and 3-point shooting that has made them competitive early on this year when Griner returns, they will be a team that opponents aren’t thrilled to face. Does that mean they are in the legit contender category? Probably not because they are not deep and rely on one scorer so much but they will be must-see TV.
Seattle Storm
Key stat: Ranks last in effective field- goal percentage (46.0%) but 4th in opponent eFG% (46.9%)
Seattle got off to a rough shooting start as Skylar Diggins-Smith was getting back into the swing of the WNBA after missing last season. Jewell Loyd also had a couple of rough volume shooting nights to begin the year and the team appeared to be struggling at times out of the gate to find their identity.
The good news for the Storm is that Nneka Ogwumike has brought her MVP-caliber stylings to Seattle without a hitch. She’s scoring 21.2 points per game on 63.2% shooting. The presence of scorers around her and Ezi Magbegor down low probably feels refreshing compared to what she had in Los Angeles the past few years.
Are they in the upper echelon of W teams right now? No, not yet. Could you see them coming together in the next few weeks and making a case as a dangerous team? Definitely.
Washington Mystics
Key stat: Ranks last in points per game (74.5), points per play (0.82), and field- goal percentage (40.3%)
It’s going to be a rough ride for the Mystics without Elena Delle Donne. They are lacking a true No. 1 scorer and the rest of the roster around their star Ariel Atkins is a hodgepodge of role players.
When Brittney Sykes returns from her ankle injury the Mystics will be more competitive, but unless Shakira Austin finds a different gear offensively and rookie Aaliyah Edwards takes a big leap soon, Washington should already be looking at potential trade partners. They have a number of players like Steph Dolson, Myisha Hines-Allen and Karlie Samuelson who could be very helpful to a contending team.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts! Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?
Hahahaaaa Caitlin looked like a rookie averaging 15-5-5? Rookies in the WNBA must be great then! What do you all have against her, seriously
Dallas will not make the playoffs this year if the coaching staff continues to allow Arike to shoot 30 shots a game. She may be second in the league in scoring but she's average 25 shots/game, player in 2nd place is at 20, Arike ranks 40% in shooting % in the W. On the Wings, Maddy is second at 11 shots/game. Latricia Trammell and her staff will not give Lou Lopez-Senechal a chance - why? Does she suck in practice? Lou can shoot from 3, drive to the hoop, can stop and pop. The playbook has been to let Arike have the ball and get out of her way. Maddy makes her own hoops and the bigs score off rebounds. That's my first impression.