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By: Marissa Sisk
Okay, we technically picked six games this week, but since two of them are between the same squads AND they’re without question the biggest games of the week, we figured it was fair play. The two Civil War games between Oregon and Oregon State have both been sold out for a while already. Luckily for anyone in the area not able to get a ticket, Friday’s game will be on Pac-12 Network, while lucky enough for the whole country, Sunday’s game at Gill Coliseum in Corvallis will be on ESPN2, as is the South Carolina/Mississippi State tilt. Two of our other picks this week are also big rivalries: the second Territorial Cup matchup between Arizona and Arizona State and then old foes UConn and Tennessee face off, the latter of which will be on ESPN. This should be a GREAT week for women’s basketball, both quality of game and exposure-wise.
#9 Mississippi State at #1 South Carolina — 1/20 at 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
South Carolina has a 21–19 all-time lead in this series, but an 11–6 record in Columbia (interestingly enough, Mississippi State is 11–6 in games in Starkville). These two teams are just one point, and one rankings slot, apart in points per game, and are similarly strong in a lot of the same categories, so which team wins may come down to some unexpected facets of the game.
One of the spots the Bulldogs outplay the Gamecocks is turnovers. Mississippi State’s 13.3 mark is only 1.3 fewer than South Carolina’s, but they force 22.0 per game, sixth in the nation and 5.1 more than USC. The three categories the Bulldogs are top-two in total field goals attempted and made are totals: field goals made and two-pointers attempted and made. That number translates well for Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are top-six in the nation in points per game, and margin per 100 possessions, no doubt helped by their eighth-ranked 47.7% field goal percentage and their 18th-ranked 51.6% two-point percentage.
That 47.7% field goal percentage number is 1.3 percentage points, and four ranking slots, ahead of South Carolina. That said, the Gamecocks excel over Mississippi State, and most other teams in the country, in a variety of categories, the combination of which will make it hard for any team to focus on just one area. Being best in the nation, as South Carolina is, at blocks, block rate, offensive rebounding rate, and opponent two-point percentage speaks to their ridiculously strong inside game, but the Gamecocks’ stronger field goal percentage is not the two, as one might expect, where they are 43rd nationally, but the three, where they are 25th. Mississippi State will need to get those extra makes, overcoming South Carolina’s stiff two-point defense, if they want to pick up the win.
#17 Indiana at #19 Maryland— 1/20 at 8:00 p.m. ET (BTN)
This game is interesting because both Indiana and Maryland have two conference losses, to the same teams, No. 20 Iowa and new No. 22 Northwestern. The Terrapins lost to the Hawkeyes by just five, but were blown out in Evanston by 23. That said, the Terrapins are coming off two big wins, which they captured by a combined 46 points, while the Hoosiers’ last two games are their losses, which were by a combined eight points, and the loss to Iowa came in double overtime. In addition to breaking their admittedly short losing streak, Indiana will also be hoping to get their first-ever win against Maryland, they’re 0–7.
Our Lobo’s Look comparison not only shows you the comparison between the Hoosiers and Terrapins, but also includes each team’s stats compared to where they finished in each category last season. If you focus on Indiana, they have improved significantly in nearly every category. We know this season is far from over, but that’s an encouraging sign for the Hoosiers’ hopes to break their 0-fer against the Terrapins. Arguably the most impressive improvements are their 5.3 percentage point improvement in field goal percentage and their nearly 10 (9.2) percentage point improvement in two-point percentage. Indiana’s 54.9% two-point percentage so far this season is third nationally, while its 48.2% overall field goal percentage is fifth. The Hoosiers are led in both categories by freshman Mackenzie Holmes, whose 67.6% mark in both categories ranks eighth nationally in overall field goal percentage and 16th in two-point percentage. While they are stronger at shooting the two, defensively, the Hoosiers are stronger at preventing opponents from connecting from three, a somewhat unexpected combination given their obvious strength inside.
Maryland is just the opposite of Indiana, stronger at shooting the three and defending the two. While neither their 23rd-ranked 36.6% three-point percentage nor their 33rd ranked 39.3% opponent two-point percentage are as strong as Indiana’s numbers in the opposite categories, according to all three of our Her Hoop Stats Ratings (offensive, defensive, and overall), the Terrapins are a stronger team this year than the Hoosiers. While the two teams “trade,” for lack of a better term, being higher-ranked in many of the shooting categories, Maryland is appreciably better in nearly every assist, turnover, steal, and block-related one, in addition to being sixth in offensive rebounds per game and offensive rebounding rate. The Terrapins are second nationally in both steals per game and steal rate, and seventh nationally in opponent assist-to-turnover ratio, as well as being in the top 25 in both assists per game and assist-to-turnover-ratio. This game may come down to which team can combine their shooting strengths to minimize the other team’s, or whether Maryland’s strength in other areas wins the day.
#23 Tennessee at #3 UConn — 1/23 at 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Let’s all be honest, it was weird not having this rivalry for 12 seasons, especially after seeing it at least once every season for the 13 before that. Overall, UConn leads the series 13–9, but it’s split 4–4 in games played in either Storrs or Hartford.
Similar to the close series, Tennessee and UConn are close in a lot of statistical categories, but there’s a split between offensive categories and defensive ones. While neither squad is by any means a slouch in either, Tennessee is stronger so far this season in defense-related statistical categories, including being top-four nationally in opponent field goal (30.7%), two-point (33.6%), and effective field goal percentages (35.5%), opponent points per scoring attempt (0.76) and play (0.64). The Lady Vols are also top-three in offensive rebounding rate (43.3%), defensive rebounds per game (33.3), total rebounding rate (59.3%) and rebounds per game (49.5). While there are no individual statistics on opponent shooting, Tennessee’s leader in all three rebounds per game categories, junior Rennia Davis, is also its leading scorer, notching 17.4 points per game, 69th nationally.
UConn’s leading scorer, junior Megan Walker, is averaging 20.3 points per game, 15th nationally. UConn is excellent in multiple categories, but so far this season its team numbers are stronger in more offensive categories than in defensive ones. This is borne out by the fact the Huskies’ Her Hoop Stats offensive rating is two spots higher than their defensive one, although their “worse” ranking is still sixth nationally. UConn’s 23.5-point margin per game, 110.4 points per 100 possessions, and 33.0-point margin per 100 possessions are seventh, sixth, and fifth nationally, respectively. At the same time, the Huskies’ 47.8% field goal percentage is also seventh and their 0.93 points per play are ninth. While they are top-10 in a number of categories the only pair of categories the Huskies are №1 in nationally so far this season is fouls per game, as they commit an average of just 10.8, 1.5 fewer than the next-best team, and foul rate, where their 13.8% rate is 0.8 percentage points better than No. 2. UConn is no doubt favored in this game, as their superior ranking, win-loss record, and Her Hoop Stats ratings would indicate, but if Tennessee can play up to their numbers in their best categories, this game may be closer than expected, especially with the rivalry factor added in.
#16 Arizona State at #18 Arizona — 1/24 at 8:00 p.m. ET (PAC12N)
As you might expect from a big intrastate rivalry, Arizona and Arizona State have met a lot. Sixty-nine times, to be exact, including already once this season in Tempe, a five-point Wildcats win. The Sun Devils will be looking to return the favor, running on a five-game win streak, including their nationally-noticed single-weekend sweep of the Oregon schools.
Arizona State’s four losses have come by an average of just seven points, and the Sun Devils are holding opponents to just 55.1 points per game, 20th nationally. They are also top-20 nationally in a number of categories, including HHS Defensive rating, where they rank 18th, 23 spots higher than their Offensive rating. Arizona State’s strongest categories are, by far, opponent assist statistics and offensive rebounding. The Sun Devils’ opponents are notching just a 0.49 assist-to-turnover ratio, sixth-worst nationally, while also only getting 8.6 assists per game, third, and only getting assists on 41.5% of shots, second. At the same time, Arizona State’s 16.8 offensive rebounds per game average rank fourth, and its 42.0% offensive rebounding rate is seventh.
Similar to their neighbors 100 miles to the northwest, Arizona is also a stronger defensive team than offensive. The Wildcats’ HHS offensive/defensive ratings split is even wider than the Sun Devils’, 31 slots. That said, while Arizona State’s strength comes largely from rebounding, the Wildcats are poor on the glass, ranking 117th or worse in all three rebounds per game categories, including 324th out of 351 teams in offensive rebounds per game. Arizona is, however, excellent at preventing opponents from shooting. Its 34.4% opponent field goal percentage and 36.6% opponent two-point percentage are both ninth nationally. Those numbers combine with Arizona’s sixth-ranked 1.6 opponent blocks per game and ninth-ranked 4.2% opponent block rate to hold opponents to 0.64 points per play, third-best nationally and just 0.06 behind leader Baylor. The Sun Devils will need to grab rebounds at their normal pace to both get enough shots up against the Wildcats’ stingy shooting defense and overcome the fact that when they do get shots, they are worse at connecting than Arizona by a solid 5.1%.
#4 Oregon vs. #7 Oregon State- 1/24 at 10:00 p.m. ET at MKA (PAC12N) & 1/26 at 4:00 p.m. ET at Gill Coliseum (ESPN2)
Oregon and Oregon State have played more times than Arizona and Arizona State. The two teams have faced off 95 times since the Beavers’ program went from club to intercollegiate in the 1975–76 season. The Ducks hold a 59–36 overall advantage, including a 33–13 advantage in Eugene, but the split is only 4 games, 24–20, in results in Corvallis. As you’d expect from two teams only two spots apart in the rankings, these two squads are close in a lot of statistical categories.
In what seems to be a theme this week, even if both are excellent across the board, one team in the matchup is stronger offensively, while the other is stronger defensively. Oregon State is the latter team in this pairing. The Beavers rank fifth in opponent field goal percentage, allowing opponents to only connect on 32.8% of attempts, while their 35.3% opponent two-point percentage is sixth, and their 26.5% opponent three-point percentage is 24th. Those numbers combine to only allow Oregon State’s opponents to score 0.77 points per scoring attempt, third-best in the nation, and just 0.02 points behind leader Baylor. The Beavers’ opponents miss a lot, and when they do, Oregon State is excellent at cleaning up the misses, as its 33.1 defensive rebounds per game is second-best nationally, while its 45.6 total rebounds per game and 58.7% total rebounding rate are both fourth. All that said, the Beavers are no offensive slouches. When they’re the ones taking the shots, their 47.3% field goal percentage ranks 10th, while their 55.3% two-point percentage is sixth, just 4.8% behind the leader, their neighbor 37 miles to the southeast.
If you look at Oregon’s offensive rankings on its HHS team page, you’ll see a lot of №1 rankings, including in HHS Offensive Rating, where the Ducks’ 125.1 mark is 4.8 better than №2 Baylor, a difference only 1.2 smaller than the distance between the Lady Bears and No. 5 Maryland. Oregon is also №1 with its 59.4% two-point percentage, 57.7% effective field goal percentage, 1.20 points per scoring attempt, 1.03 points per play, and 1.84 assist to turnover ratio. Individually, the Ducks have three players averaging 61% or better from two-point range, led by senior Ruthy Hebard’s 68.5%, tied for 10th nationally. Hebard has taken all of her shots from two, and when that 68.5% number is entered in the overall field goal percentage rankings, it’s fourth. Hebard is Oregon’s second-leading scorer with 16.5, behind senior Sabrina Ionescu’s 17.4, while junior Satou Sabally is a close third, with 16.0. Oregon State’s leading scorer, junior Destiny Slocum, scores 0.9 fewer than Sabally, and the Beavers are even more bunched at the top of their scoring, with senior Mikayla Pivec, just 0.4 points per game behind Slocum, and freshman Taylor Jones just 1.3 points per game behind Pivec. This should be an excellent pair of games, as not only is it a rivalry series between top-10 teams, but each team has a strength that will make it difficult for the other team to easily excel at their own.
We mentioned it above, but check out our new feature, Lobo’s Look, for comparing any two teams in the country. Here it is for Oregon State vs. Oregon, but have fun putting in whichever teams you want to see.
We know it’s hard to keep track of all the Games to Watch, especially the midweek ones, so we’ve started a Google Calendar. You can find it here, with the iCal link here. You can also follow Her Hoop Stats on Instagram, Twitter, and Facebook for your women’s basketball coverage.
All stats (from Her Hoop Stats) are for games through January 19. AP rankings are up to date as of the January 20 poll.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram.
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