Games to Watch Week 13
A lot of bunched conference standings make for an interesting selection process
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By: Marissa Sisk
This week, we had the three battles of ranked teams as clear cut choices, and SEVEN strong contenders for the last two spots. We considered a bunch of factors in whittling it down, including strength of opponent/matchup, if there were any common opponents between the teams under consideration with different results between the two (especially among the unranked contingent of teams). We also admittedly considered how many times some teams had appeared so far in this piece, as well as if we thought a team hadn’t gotten as much recognition here as we thought they deserved. Just missing the cut were:
#17 Maryland at Ohio State — 1/30 at 6:30 p.m. ET. (BTN)
#25 Arkansas at Alabama — 1/30 at 8:00 p.m. ET (SECN+)
Michigan at #23 Northwestern — 1/30 at 8:00 p.m. ET (BTN+)
BYU at #12 Gonzaga — 2/1 at 5:00 p.m. ET (WCC Sports)
Iowa State at West Virginia — 2/2 at 2:00 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
#8 UCLA at #16 Arizona — 1/31 at 8:00 p.m. ET (PAC12N)
UCLA has a 61–21 lead in this series, including a 13-game win streak and a 28–12 lead in games played in Tucson. UCLA won the first meeting between these two teams, 70–58, on January 5, and have just one loss on the season, a two-point, double overtime loss to crosstown rival USC. That said, the Wildcats have only three losses on the season, the abovementioned one to the Bruins and then a two-point one to Oregon State and a seven-point one to Oregon, both top-10 teams.
As they have been all season, UCLA’s strongest categories are the ones related to taking care of the ball. The Bruins’ 1.48 assist-to-turnover rate is fourth nationally, as is their 13.7% turnover ratio, while their 5.9% opponent steal rate is fifth and their 5.3 opponent steals per game is ninth. Those strong numbers, paired with a seventh-ranked 16.5 offensive rebounds per game, allows UCLA to overcome average shooting numbers, as the Bruins are in the top-third of two-point shooting teams, and the middle third in three-point and overall field goal percentage..
Arizona’s leading scorer, Aari McDonald, is averaging 20.5 points per game on the season 17th nationally and 0.7 better than Onyenwere’s 19.8. The Wildcats are, as a team, also significantly better shooters than the Bruins. Arizona is 42nd nationally in field goal percentage, at 44.2%, and 28th in two-point percentage, at 50.0%. The Wildcats are, however, even stronger on defense, only allowing opponents to connect on 36.7% of two-point attempts, 11th nationally, and 34.5% of all field goals, 13th. Those numbers, plus Arizona’s strong steal and opponent turnover numbers, combine to only allow its opponents 0.64 points per play, second-best in the nation and just 0.04 behind leader Baylor. This game may come down to whether the Bruins can stop McDonald and/or the Wildcats can stop Onyenwere, and, team-wise, whether Arizona’s defense is too much for UCLA’s middling shooting numbers.
Creighton at #11 DePaul — 1/31 at 8:00 p.m. ET (NBCS Chicago+/ Big East YouTube)
DePaul is 14–3 in this series, including a three-point win already this season in Omaha. The Blue Demons are undefeated in the Big East and alone atop the conference standings, while the Bluejays are in a three-way tie for third at 5–4, one game behind another three-way tie for second. The last four meetings between these teams have been decided by an average of just six points, and the Blue Demons will be looking to continue their conference undefeated streak, while the Bluejays will be looking to pull the upset and separate themselves from the pack.
Creighton‘s best category so far this season is opponent steals per game, as the Bluejays are allowing opponents only 5.0 per game, third-best in the nation. As you might expect, they are similarly strong at not turning the ball over at all, coming in second nationally at 11.0 per game, just 0.8 behind leader FGCU. Individually, Creighton has six players in the top-10% in assist-to-turnover ratio, led by sophomore Chloe Dworak’s 3.50, eighth-best in the nation. Scoring-wise, as a team the Bluejays are balanced, getting 41.6% of their points from two and 39.2% from three, and have the leading scorer on either team going into this game, senior Jaylyn Agnew, whose 19.8 per game average ranks 23rd nationally.
The leading scorer for DePaul so far this season is senior Chante Stonewall, with 17.2, 2.6 points and 61 slots behind Agnew, but the Blue Demons have the second best player in the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio, senior Kelly Campbell, at 5.85. As a team, DePaul’s 1.47 assist-to-turnover mark is fifth nationally, aided by its similarly fifth-ranked 19.9 assists per game. Those impressive assist numbers have come on 1,534 total field goal attempts and 632 makes, combining for 1,811 points, all of which are the most in the nation. Those 1,811 points have averaged out to 86.2 per game, second nationally. Those scoring opportunities have come in bunches partially thanks to the Blue Demons’ 78.6 possessions per 40 minutes, eighth nationally and just 3.2 behind leader Sam Houston State. Possessions and game speed will be a spot to watch in this game, as DePaul prefers to play fast, while Creighton’s 66.4 possessions per 40 minutes rank 328th out of 351, and just 2.6 per game ahead of last place Bucknell.
#18 Iowa at Michigan — 2/2 at 12:00 p.m. ET (BTN)
The Big East is more tightly bunched than the Big Ten so far this season, and the Pac-12 is the tougher conference, but the Big Ten has had arguably the best drama and most unexpected results, as the two teams atop the standings, Iowa and Northwestern (incidentally Michigan’s other opponent this week), both have losses to Maryland, but the Wildcats blew out the Terrapins by 23 in their other meeting. You can go down the standings and find similar results for every team. But back to the game at hand. Iowa holds a 50–18 record in the all-time series with Michigan, but have dropped the last three games played in Ann Arbor.
Iowa’s better half of the court this season is, by far, the offensive one. The Hawkeyes’ 1.18 points per scoring attempt and 55.5% effective field goal percentage are both second in the nation, while their 72.2% assisted shot rate, 55.1% two-point percentage, and 48.8% overall field goal percentage are all third. Not only do the Hawkeyes shoot well as a team, they spread the statistical wealth, as senior Kathleen Doyle’s 18.7 points per game lead the squad, but two other players, senior Makenzie Meyer and sophomore Monika Czinano, are both in the top-10% of scorers nationally. Percentage-wise, Czinano is the best shooter, as her 70.1%, all from two, ranks fifth nationally from that distance and second nationally overall, just 1.0 percentage points behind LSU senior Ayana Mitchell.
Michigan’s best scorer, sophomore Naz Hillmon, is the team’s clear leader, as, in addition to points per game, she leads the Wolverines in field goal and two-point percentage, as well as leading or being tied for the lead in all three rebounds per game categories. As a team, the Wolverines’ best side of the floor is the defensive one, opposite of the Hawkeyes. Michigan’s best stat is opponent total rebounds per game, where its 31.7 mark ranks ninth, followed by a 13th-ranked 45.2% opponent assisted shot rate. The Wolverines’ best larger category statistically is opponent rebounding as a whole, where they rank in the top-10% in opponent total and defensive rebounds per game and rebounding rate, and in the top third in the offensive categories. Michigan has an appreciable advantage on the glass over Iowa, as the Wolverines’ 55.3% total rebounding rate is 5.2 percentage points and 145 slots, ahead of the Hawkeyes. Michigan will need to use that advantage to lock down Iowa’s scorers, as the Hawkeyes, as we mentioned, are third nationally in field goal percentage, 17 slots and 3.4 percentage points, ahead of the Wolverines. This will be a classic battle of opposing strengths, and should be fun to watch.
#22 Tennessee at #1 South Carolina — 2/2 at 1:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Tennessee has a dominating 50–8 lead in the series with South Carolina, but are 5–5 in the last 10 meetings and are looking to break a two-game losing streak. The Gamecocks are certainly favored in this game, as their No. 1 ranking and No. 3 (compared to the Lady Vols’ No. 29) Her Hoop Stats Rating would both indicate. That said, Tennessee and South Carolina have strengths in a lot of the same categories. One excellent example is blocks per game and block rate. The two teams are first and second nationally in blocks per game and second and third nationally in block rate, with the Gamecocks with the SLIGHT lead in both categories. The difference in blocks per game is 1.0 per game, while the difference in block rate is just 0.09 percentage points.
Other than blocks, Tennessee’s best categories so far this season are also defensive, as the Lady Vols are best nationally in defensive rebounds per game and opponent two-point percentage and opponent points per scoring attempt. The Lady Vols are also second and third, respectively, in total rebounds per game and total rebounding rate. One of the things that no doubt helps them pull down so many on the defensive glass is, as we mentioned, they make their opponents miss a lot. Tennessee’s 0.77 opponent points per scoring attempt are 0.01 ahead of Baylor, while the Lady Vols’ 33.7% opponent two-point percentage is 0.6 percentage points ahead of the Gamecocks.
In addition to that close second spot, South Carolina is just 0.04 points, and four slots, behind Tennessee in opponent points per scoring attempt, just 2.0 percentage points, and two slots behind Tennessee in opponent field goal shooting percentage, and just 0.6 percentage points and one slot behind in opponent two-point percentage. The Gamecocks are also stronger than the Lady Vols in some rebounding categories, including being best nationally in offensive rebounding rate, at 44.8%, 3.6 percentage points ahead, while being just 0.6 rebounds and 0.1 percentage points behind the Lady Vols in total rebounds per game and total rebounding percent. Where the Gamecocks separate themselves, however, are the scoring statistics when they’re the ones taking the shots. South Carolina has an advantage over Tennessee in field goal, two-point, and three-point percentage, with the widest margin being 3.7 percentage points in three-point percentage. 1.8 percentage point advantage overall, plus a 0.5 percentage point advantage from inside the arc. That combination means South Carolina is scoring 11 points per game more than Tennessee, adding another reason the Gamecocks are favored in this game, but it will be a face-off of two well-matched teams, at least in the categories they both excel in, which are numerous.
#8 UCLA at #19 Arizona State — 2/2 at 2:00 p.m. ET (PAC12N)
UCLA has a similarly strong record over Arizona State, 56-28, as it does over the Sun Devils’ Grand Canyon State rival Wildcats, and the Bruins are on an eight-game win streak against ASU, including a 68-66 win in Westwood on January 3. UCLA and Arizona State are just 0.1 offensive rebounds per game and two ranking slots (seventh and ninth, respectively) apart in offensive rebounds per game, and are within 1.2 rebounds per game of one another in defensive and total rebounds per game. The Bruins and Sun Devils are also within 1.5 percentage points of one another in overall, two-point, and three-point field goal percentage, with UCLA ahead in all three.
UCLA, as we mentioned above, is excellent in assist-to-turnover ratio, both as a team and individually. The Bruins have FIVE players, sophomore Lindsey Corsaro, freshman Camryn Brown, freshman Jaden Owens, sophomore Kiara Jefferson, and senior Japreece Dean with a 2.22 AST or better, meaning they have four players ranked 71st or better (out of 3,309 qualified players) in that category. Dean’s 5.4 assists per game also rank 23rd nationally, and her 14.9 points per game are second on the team behind Onyenwere.
Dean’s 14.6 points per game are 2.4 points per game better than Arizona State’s leading scorer, senior Ja'Tavia Tapley, who is also the team’s leading rebounder, averaging 7.0 per game. As we mentioned above, the Sun Devils are ninth nationally in offensive rebounds per game, led by sophomore Jayde Van Hyfte’s 3.4 per game and freshman Eboni Walker’s 2.9, both in the top-10% nationally. That said, the Sun Devils’ best statistical categories are related to opponent assists and turnovers, which may spell trouble for the Bruins. Arizona State’s 0.49 opponent assist-to-turnover ratio mark is sixth nationally, aided by its fourth-ranked 8.6 opponent assists per game, while a third-ranked 41.8% opponent assisted shot rate is the Sun Devils’ best statistical category overall.
We mentioned it above, but check out our new feature, Lobo’s Look, for comparing any two teams in the country. Here it is for Creighton at DePaul, but have fun putting in whichever teams you want to see.
We know it’s hard to keep track of all the Games to Watch, especially the midweek ones, so we’ve started a Google Calendar. You can find it here, with the iCal link here. You can also follow Her Hoop Stats on Instagram, Twitter, and Facebook for your women’s basketball coverage.
All stats (from Her Hoop Stats) are for games through January 26. AP rankings are up to date as of the January 27 poll.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram.