Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram.
Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?
There are THREE top-eight matchups this week. What a fun Valentine’s treat, including Oregon-UCLA on the big day itself. There are six ranked-vs-ranked matchups this week, so apologies to No. 16 Texas A&M and No. 25 Tennessee. Their game Sunday, at 3 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2, just missed the cut. Other intriguing games you might want to watch include:
TCU at No. 2 Baylor— 2/12 at 8:00 ET (ESPN+*)
No. 25 Tennessee at LSU—2/13 at 7:30 ET
No. 2 Baylor at Oklahoma State— 2/15 at 8:00 ET (ESPN+*)
No. 11 Oregon State at USC-— 2/14 at 10:00 ET (PAC12N)
#5 UConn at #1 South Carolina— 2/10 at 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
This series hasn’t been close, as it’s 8–0 Huskies, with an average margin of victory of 25.9 points. The closest game was an 11-point UConn win, but this game should be MUCH closer. If you check out our Lobo’s Look comparison for these two teams, you’ll see a LOT of bold green numbers for both teams, meaning that both UConn and South Carolina are in the top-10% of the country for the given category. Not only that, but there’s a number of categories in which the Gamecocks and the Huskies are just a couple slots apart, including points per 100 possessions, where they’re fourth and sixth, respectively, opponent points per 100 categories, where they’re ninth and eighth, and field goal percentage where they’re 11th and 10th.
UConn is an appreciably better-shooting team than South Carolina, coming in third nationally in three-point percentage at 39.7%, seventh in overall field goal percentage at 47.7%, and 14th in two-point percentage, at 51.9%. The Huskies are also top-10 in a slew of other categories, and hold the No. 1 spot in fouls per game and foul rate, at 11.0 and 13.3%, respectively. While that’s not necessarily a super-telling stat, combined with UConn’s 10th-ranked 1.33 assist-to-turnover ratio, it is a pretty clear indicator that the Huskies are good at not beating themselves by making silly mistakes or committing unnecessary fouls.
South Carolina is similarly strong in assist-to-turnover ratio, coming in 27th at 1.17, but the Gamecocks’ OPPONENT assist-to-turnover ratio is 0.52, 10th nationally, and highlights the side of the ball where they really shine, the defensive one. South Carolina is best in the nation in blocks per game at 8.3 and block rate at 17.6%, in addition to offensive rebounding rate. The Gamecocks are also second in total rebounds per game and total rebounding rate, at 47.5 and 58.2%, respectively. The numbers get even more impressive when you look at their opponent percentages. South Carolina is top-three nationally in the following opponent categories: assisted shot rate, two-point and effective field goal percentage, points per play and per scoring attempt, and defensive and total rebounding rate. South Carolina is the stronger team overall this year, as evidenced by its No. 3 Her Hoop Stats Rating, but it’s awfully close, as UConn is just two spots back at No. 5.
#17 Iowa at #10 Maryland— 2/13 at 6:00 p.m. ET (BTN)
This is a battle of the two teams currently tied atop the Big Ten standings, and should be a good one. Maryland and Iowa have only met 10 times, with the Terrapins holding a 6–4 lead. If you go by win trends, Maryland has won the last three in College Park, with Iowa’s only win on the Terrapins’ home floor coming back in the 1992–93 season, but the Hawkeyes have won the past three games overall, including a 66–61 victory in Iowa City on January 9th.
In that first meeting, senior Kathleen Doyle led the way for Iowa, as she has all season. Doyle notched 21 points in that game, 2.3 above her season average of 18.7. On the season, sophomore Monika Czinano is the Hawkeyes’ second leading scorer, but the NATION’S most accurate, at 69.2%. That percentage, of course, contributes to Iowa’s impressive numbers as a team. The Hawkeyes are fourth nationally in overall field goal percentage, at 48.2%, third in two-point percentage at 54.8%, and 13th from three at 37.2%. In addition to shooting, Iowa also excels at setting up the shot, as its 20.2 assists per game and 71.2% assisted shot rate are both fourth nationally.
Similar to Iowa, Maryland’s leading scorer all season, senior Kaila Charles, led them in the first matchup between these two teams. Charles scored 23 points, 8.1 above her season average. As a team, the Terrapins are not as strong a group of shooters as the Hawkeyes, but Maryland’s best statistical categories will be problematic for Iowa. The Terrapins’ best categories are their second-ranked 14.6% steal rate and third-ranked 12.5 steals per game, led by senior Blair Watson’s 23rd 2.9 steals per game. Those impressive steal numbers are followed closely, rankings-wise, by Maryland’s third-ranked 22.1 opponent turnovers per game and fourth-ranked 25.9% opponent turnover rate. This game looks like it will come down to whether the Hawkeyes can utilize their impressive assist numbers and shoot at their normal impressive percentages or whether the Terrapins can use their strength to disrupt Iowa’s rhythm.
#9 Louisville at #4 NC State—2/13 at 8:00 p.m. ET (ACCN)
This game more or less personifies “slow and steady wins the race.” NC State and Louisville are 246th and 247th, respectively, out of 351 teams, in possessions per 40 minutes, but are 27th and 29th in points per game, and 14th and 19th in points per 100 possessions. All-time, the Cardinals hold a 7–3 record against the Wolfpack, including wins in the last five straight.
Louisville has played the second-hardest schedule of anyone in the country, according to its 56.4% opponent win percentage. While that ranking isn’t a traditional stat, it certainly makes the Cardinals’ 21–3 record and numerous impressive statistical numbers all the more so. In terms of “traditional” stats, Louisville’s best ranking is its 13th-ranked 13.6% block rate, led by senior Kylee Shook’s 21st-ranked 10.6% block rate. Close behind are the Cardinals’ 14th-ranked 5.7 opponent steals per game, 6.7% opponent steal rate, and their 17th-ranked 45.3% field goal percentage. Every qualified player on Louisville’s roster is shooting 40.8% or better, good for the middle 33% or better of 3,092 players, and the Cardinals have seven players in the top-third.
NC State is not as strong of a shooting team as Louisville overall, as the Wolfpack only have four players shooting 40% or better, but they are better shooters from three-point range and, as a result, their effective field goal percentage is stronger, 51.7% to 50.1%. NC State’s best categories overall are nearly all defensive. The Wolfpack’s 12.1 fouls per game are second nationally, while their 15.2% foul rate and 31.4 defensive rebounds per game are both fourth. Their 33.7% opponent field goal percentage is seventh. This will be a battle of two impressive and well-matched teams, as the numbers in the first paragraph, their AP rankings, and the fact the teams are separated by five or fewer in all three HHS ratings (overall, offensive, and defensive: the Wolfpack are eighth, 13th, and 12th, respectively, while the Cardinals are 16th, 15th, and 16th.
#3 Oregon at #7 UCLA — 2/14 at 11:00 p.m. ET (PAC12N)
This game is the third of our top-10 matchups this week. It’s a late tip-off, but that means most of us will have plenty of time to celebrate Valentine’s Day before tuning in. All time, UCLA has a 37–33 record, but have lost six of the last seven. Meanwhile, Oregon is 12–22 in Westwood. This will be the only meeting in the regular season of these two top ten teams. It should be an excellent matchup, particularly if you like teams that do the fundamental things right, as the Bruins and Ducks are both top-10 nationally in turnovers per game, turnover rate, and assist-to-turnover ratio.
Oregon is best in the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio at 1.84, boosted by a fourth-ranked 11.4 turnovers per game and a third-ranked 20.9 assists per game. The Ducks are also best nationally in two-point percentage, effective field goal percentage, points per scoring attempt, and points per play. Senior Ruthy Hebard leads the way for Oregon, and is top-15 in the country, in all four of the scoring categories mentioned: points per play (fifth, 1.21), two point percentage (ninth, 67.0%), effective field goal percentage (10th, 67.0%), and points per scoring attempt (15th, 1.34). As for assists and turnovers, junior Erin Boley leads the way in turnovers, only averaging 0.5 per game, while senior Sabrina Ionescu leads the team and the country with her 8.5 assists per game average. In assist-to-turnover ratio, it’s senior Minyon Moore leading the Ducks at 3.81, good for third nationally.
UCLA‘s leader in assist-to-turnover ratio is sophomore Lindsey Corsaro, whose 2.67 mark is nearly a point behind Moore, but still a very impressive 15th nationally. Other than their top-10 rankings in the above-mentioned categories, the Bruins’ best categories are their second-ranked 5.8% opponent steal rate, third-ranked 5.2 opponent steals per game, and eighth-ranked 16.2 offensive rebounds per game. In that last category, offensive rebounds per game, UCLA has four players in the top-10% nationally, led by junior Lauryn Miller’s 3.0 per game, followed by freshman Charisma Osborne and junior Michaela Onyenwere, each with 2.6. Onyenwere also leads the Bruins in defensive and overall rebounds per game, as well as scoring, where her 19.9 points per game are 20th nationally. Both of these teams have numerous players who are at or near the top of the nation in various categories, as well as being at or near the top as a squad, and this should be a supremely fun game to watch.
#6 Mississippi State at #18 Kentucky — 2/16 at 5:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Kentucky leads this all time series, 27–21, including a 12–9 lead in games in Lexington, but Mississippi State has won the last four overall. This season, both the Wildcats and the Bulldogs have particular strengths in opponent turnovers, steals, and assists. Both teams are top-20 in opponent turnovers per game, opponent turnover rate, opponent assist-to-turnover ratio, opponent steals per game, and opponent steal rate.
Mississippi State’s best category overall is its third-ranked 0.47 opponent assist-to-turnover ratio and 6.1% opponent steal rate, and 19.6% opponent three-point rate. Offensively, the Bulldogs are eighth nationally in field goal percentage at 47.1%, ninth nationally in points per game at 80.0, and 10th nationally in points per 100 possessions at 107.5. Individually, Mississippi State spreads the statistical wealth, with three players in the top-10% nationally in field goal percentage, led by junior Yemiyah Morris, whose 61.2% is 28th nationally. The Bulldogs also have different leaders in points per game (freshman Rickea Jackson’s 14.2); steals per game (graduate student Jordan Danberry’s 2.8 per game); while Jessika Carter leads the team in rebounding (4.4 offensive, 4.7 defensive, and 9.1 overall rebounds per game) and blocks (1.9 blocks per game).
On the other hand, Kentucky has one player, sophomore Rhyne Howard, leading the way in all of those categories. Howard missed three games after fracturing a finger on her non-shooting hand on January 27th, but played in the Wildcats’ loss to Arkansas on Sunday. She dropped 20 points on the Razorbacks, an impressive performance for having missed nearly two weeks. In the three games she was out, the Wildcats were 2-1, and had a different leading scorer in each one, led overall by junior Chasity Patterson’s 25 in a 70–62 loss to Florida. As a team, Kentucky’s best overall category is its third-ranked 26.1% opponent turnover rate, followed by its ninth-ranked 5.6 opponent steals per game, and 10th-ranked 21.6 opponent turnovers per game. Mississippi State is undoubtedly favored in this game, as evidenced by the Bulldogs’ higher AP ranking and top-10 slots in all three Her Hoop Stats rating categories (although the Wildcats are top-22 in all three, very solid themselves). However, if Kentucky can disrupt Mississippi State’s rhythm, it may be closer than expected.
Don’t forget, you can use our Lobo’s Look feature to compare any two teams in the country. Here it is for Louisville at NC State, but have fun putting in whichever teams you want to see.
We know it’s hard to keep track of all the Games to Watch, especially the midweek ones, so we’ve started a Google Calendar. You can find it here, with the iCal link here. You can also follow Her Hoop Stats on Instagram, Twitter, and Facebook for your women’s basketball coverage.
*Paid/subscription service
All stats (from Her Hoop Stats) are for games through February 9. AP rankings are up to date as of the February 10 poll.
If you like this content, please support our work at Her Hoop Stats by subscribing for just $20 a year.
Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?