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We are just under two weeks until conference tournaments get started and 28 days until Selection Monday, and there is still a lot to be decided, both in terms of seeding within conferences for the former and, especially, seeding and hosting for the latter. This week, picking the five games was easier than it has been in some recent weeks, and we didn’t have any true “last games cut.”
#15 Oregon State at #8 UCLA— 2/17 at 9:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
This series has, historically, gone resoundingly in UCLA’s favor, as the Bruins have a 48–27 lead, including a 27–8 record in Westwood, but Oregon State is on a three-game win streak against UCLA. The Bruins 73.7 points per game, 30th nationally. At the same time, the Beavers are allowing just 56.8 points per game, 26th-best.
Oregon State is not scoring as many points per game as UCLA, but they are better shooters in every category except free throws. In fact, the Beavers are top-11 nationally in field goal (46.6%), two-point (52.7%), and effective field goal percentage (53.4%). Even in their weakest category, three-point percentage, they’re 19th (36.4%). What makes the Beavers especially scary is that they are nearly as good at preventing opponents from scoring as they are at shooting, coming in top-10 in the same three categories when flipped to the opponent side, and coming in 34th in opponent three-point percentage. Not only do Oregon State’s opponents shoot a relatively low percentage, but they often only get one shot at it, as the Beavers get a nation-leading 31.9 defensive rebounds per game. They are also ninth nationally in total rebounds per game, at 43.7, and third in total rebounding rate, at 57.6%.
UCLA is led in both scoring and rebounding by junior Michaela Onyenwere, whose 50.4% field goal and 54.0% two-point percentages are both in the top-10% nationally, as are her 2.6 offensive, 5.2 defensive, and 7.8 total rebounds per game. As a team, UCLA is eighth nationally in offensive rebounds per game, at 16.1. The Bruins are not as strong as the Beavers in shooting, but they do a lot of the things leading up to shooting the ball at an elite level, coming in third in turnover rate at 13.0%, seventh in assist-to-turnover ratio at 1.43, and turnovers per game at 11.5. UCLA’s strong offensive rebounding versus Oregon State’s defensive rebounding strength will certainly be the spot to watch in this game, especially since with the Bruins rarely turning it over, the Beavers will need every chance they can get off the glass if they want to connect at their normal excellent percentages.
Tennessee at #22 Arkansas—2/20 at 7:00 p.m. ET (SECN)
Tennessee is 30–4 all-time against Arkansas, but the Razorbacks won the most recent meeting by a single point, 80–79, last season. This season, these two teams are close in several statistical categories, including being just 0.6 percentage points apart in field goal percentage and 1.0 percentage points apart in two-point percentage. (Arkansas has a slight lead in both categories.)
Tennessee’s field goal percentage is 27th nationally, and the Lady Vols’ 32.7% mark when opponents are taking the shots is third nationally, their third-best ranking in any statistical category behind their second-ranked 0.80 opponent points per scoring attempt and 7.2 blocks per game. In addition to opponent field goal percentage, Tennessee is third in total rebounds per game at 46.4, opponent points per scoring attempt at 0.81, and opponent effective field goal percentage at 37.2%. Even the Lady Vols’ “worst” opponent shooting category, three-point percentage, is 22nd at 27.2%.
Arkansas’ strongest shooting percentage is from distance, as the Razorbacks’ 38.9% ranks third nationally. That strength from three explains Arkansas’ similarly excellent rankings in points per play, where they are second at 0.98; points per game, where they are third at 85.0; and points per 100 possessions, where they are fifth at 110.7. Those are not, however, the Razorbacks’ best category. They are best in the country in opponent steals per game, at 4.6, and opponent steal rate, at 5.3%. Those top rankings are followed closely by Arkansas’ second-ranked 12.9% turnover rate and third-ranked 11.2 turnovers per game. The Razorbacks will need to continue their excellence in shooting from beyond the arc and not turning the ball over, as they will need every point and scoring opportunity they can get to counter Tennessee’s strength shooting and especially defending opponents’ shots.
#15 Oregon State at #4 Stanford— 2/21 at 11:00 p.m. ET (PAC12N)
Oregon State has won once in Palo Alto. You read that correctly: once. Overall, Stanford is 57–9 against the Beavers, including a 61–58 victory in Corvallis on January 19th that extended their current win streak in the series to four. Those four wins came by an average of seven points, and these two teams are incredibly closely matched. They are separated by five ranking spots or fewer in points per 100 possessions, effective field goal percentage, points per play, opponent field goal percentage, opponent two-point percentage, and assist-to-turnover ratio. In the first match-up, Oregon State out-rebounded Stanford by two, 41–39, and outshot the Cardinal by one percentage point, 37.9% to 36.9%. The teams took the same number of shots from distance, 22, but Stanford’s eight makes to Oregon State’s seven proved to be the difference.
In that first match up, Oregon State was led in scoring by junior Destiny Slocum, who notched a season-high 26 points, 11.5 above her season average.Freshman Kennedy Brown led the team in rebounding in that game, with 10, but she unfortunately tore her ACL last week and is out for the season. On the season, Slocum, who made three of the seven Beaver threes in the first match-up, shares the team scoring lead with senior Mikayla Pivec. Pivec is just 0.1 assists behind Slocum for the team lead and leads the team in all three rebounds per game categories. In the first match-up, Pivec only notched 10 points and five rebounds, well below her season averages.
Stanford, similar to Oregon State, has two players leading the way for the team. Junior Kiana Williams leads the team with 13.8 points and 3.9 assists per game. Sophomore Lexie Hull is just 0.4 points per game behind Williams and leads the team with 1.6 steals per game, 6.2 total rebounds per game, and 4.5 defensive rebounds per game. In the first match-up, Williams led the way with 17 points and four assists, while Hull added 14 points. As a team, Stanford’s best categories are opponent two-point percentage at 36.6%, which ranks 10th nationally, and 34.5% opponent field goal percentage and 45.2% opponent assisted shot rate, which both rank 11th. The Beavers will need Pivec to play closer to her usual impressive game if they want to pick up their second-ever W in Maples, but the fact the Cardinal’s strongest categories are both defensive may make that a tough ask.
#20 South Dakota at South Dakota State— 2/22 at 3:00 p.m. ET (ESPN3*)
Photo via https://www.sdcornshowdown.com/showdown-trophy/
The trophy pictured above goes to the winner of the South Dakota Showdown Series presented by South Dakota Corn. Right now, South Dakota has a 7.5–1.5 point lead over South Dakota State. One of those points came from the Coyotes’ 83–48 win at home in Vermillion. All-time, the Jackrabbits have the series lead, 50–37, and a 30–10 lead in Brookings, but USD has won the last four overall, two at home and two away. While the Coyotes are no doubt favored in this game, these two teams are surprisingly close in a number of categories. In particular, they are separated by one rebound or fewer in all three (offensive, defensive, and total) rebounds per game categories and by 0.1 percentage points in block rate.
South Dakota was, until now, the only team currently ranked in the AP Top 25 that had not gotten a slot in Games to Watch. The “issue,” in the loosest use of that word possible, was that the Coyotes have dominated nearly all their opponents. They win by an average of 23.5 points per game, fifth-best in the nation. They have just two losses on the season, by 13 points to No. 1 South Carolina and eight points to No. 23 Missouri State. South Dakota’s impressive margin per game isn’t the only statistical category in which they excel. They are second in the nation in points per 100 possessions, at 112.4, and third in points per play, at 0.97. The Coyotes are also sixth or better in points per scoring attempt (fourth, 1.15), effective field goal percentage (fifth, 54.5%), field goal percentage (sixth, 47.9%), and two-point percentage (sixth, 53.0%). Leading scorer Ciara Duffy is similarly efficient, averaging 17.2 points per game while ranking in the top 5% of players in 3-point shooting, effective field goal percentage, and points per scoring attempt. Those numbers give a glimpse at South Dakota’s offensive dominance, which, combined with some of its other strengths, including its 10th-ranked 1.31 assist-to-turnover ratio, give the Coyotes the seventh-best Her Hoop Stats Offensive Rating in the nation, 12 spots better than their Defensive Rating.
South Dakota State is, similar to its in-state rival, better offensively than defensively. The Jackrabbits are 38 spots higher in the HHS Offensive Ratings (37th) than they are in the Defensive Ratings (75th). Their best category overall is assists, as their 67.3% assisted shot rate is 10th nationally, followed by their 15th-ranked 17.3 assists per game. South Dakota State has three players averaging 3.1 assists per game or more, putting senior Rylie Cascio Jensen (4.0 APG), junior Myah Selland (3.4 APG), and senior Tagyn Larson (3.1 APG) all in the top 10% nationally. Selland and junior Paiton Burckhard lead the Jackrabbits in scoring at 14.4 points per game, but Selland has been out since early December with a foot injury. South Dakota’s numerous top-10 statistical rankings, its current six-week AP poll run (and another week earlier this season), and its dominating victory in the teams’ first meeting all point to a Coyote win. That said, if South Dakota State can take advantage of the fact the game is in Brookings; get excellent games out of Cascio Jensen, Selland, and Burkhard; and maybe take some tips from Oral Roberts, the only Summit League team to play South Dakota within 20 this season, this game may be closer than expected.
#1 South Carolina at #1 Kentucky — 2/23 at 2:00 p.m. ET (SECN+)
This all-time series is super-close, 34–32 in favor of Kentucky, but South Carolina won the first meeting this season in dominating fashion, 99–72, in Columbia. Six South Carolina players scored in double figures, led by freshmen Zia Cooke and Brea Beal, who each scored 15 points. The Gamecocks shot 61.0% from field goal range and 66.0% from two-point range, numbers the Wildcats will have to lower if they want to pick up the win.
South Carolina’s shooting numbers in the first meeting were, of course, beyond even the Gamecocks’ impressive normal ones. On the season, South Carolina’s 46.8% field goal percentage is 10th nationally, while its 49.7% two-point percentage is 30th. What may be even crazier about the first meeting with Kentucky, though, is that the Gamecocks outdid themselves in two of the three of the categories they rank best in nationally. While they didn’t beat their top-ranked 8.2 blocks per game, South Carolina’s offensive rebounding rate in that game was 65.4%, 11.0 percentage points above its season average, and the Gamecocks held Kentucky to a 34.6% defensive rebounding rate, 21.0 percentage points better than its season average.
In the first meeting, Kentucky was led, as it has been pretty much all season, by sophomore Rhyne Howard, whose 28 points accounted for 38.9% of the Wildcats’ total. Howard missed three contests with an injury, but the Wildcats managed to go 2-1 in those games with a different leading scorer in each one. On the season, Howard’s 23.2 points per game average is second-best nationally, 1.8 points per game behind Rider senior Stella Johnson. Howard also leads the team in steals per game, at 2.3, and is second in steal rate, as her 3.8% is just behind junior Chasity Patterson’s 3.9%. Those strong steal numbers correlate with the Wildcats’ best team numbers, as their 25.8% opponent turnover rate is ranked fifth, while their 21.1 opponent turnovers per game are ninth. Kentucky will need another excellent game from Howard in addition to some help from Patterson, who is also the team’s second-leading scorer, and the rest of the Wildcats if they want to upset the No. 1 team in the country.
Check out our feature, Lobo’s Look, for comparing any two teams in the country. Here it is for South Dakota at South Dakota State, but have fun putting in whichever teams you want to see.
We know it’s hard to keep track of all the Games to Watch, especially the midweek ones, so we’ve started a Google Calendar. You can find it here, with the iCal link here. You can also follow Her Hoop Stats on Instagram, Twitter, and Facebook for your women’s basketball coverage.
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All stats (from Her Hoop Stats) are for games through February 16. AP rankings are up to date as of the February 17 poll.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram.