Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs and shirts!
Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?
The latest ESPN Bracketology came out this morning. If it wasn’t before, it’s clear the Pac-12 and the Big Ten are the strongest conferences in women’s hoops this season, with the Pac-12 in the lead. According to Charlie Creme, the Big Ten currently has more schools in than the Pac-12, eight to six, but four of the six Pac-12 schools got hosting slots, compared to the Big Ten’s three of eight. It was five of six for the Pac-12, until yesterday’s ranked carnage, where three of the four Pac-12 (and seven of the 11 overall) teams that were ranked and playing unranked squads lost, with No. 17 Oregon State, interestingly enough the team that lost its hosting spot, the sole winner.
Even before yesterday’s ranked team decimation, we’d decided to mix it up for this week, picks-wise. Currently, Stanford (inclusive of its one spot this week) and No. 1 South Carolina have both been in this piece nine times. That’s the most in the nation, followed closely by Oregon (again, inclusive of its appearance this week) and UCLA with eight. Rather than just going by ranked vs. ranked games, which would give the Cardinal their 10th and 11th slots (they have THREE ranked opponents this week), and the Gamecocks their 10th, we decided to give the slots to some teams that had no appearances so far, or teams we thought deserved a little more attention than they’ve gotten all season. All that said, picking the “most-deserving,” for lack of a better term, was tough, and there were ELEVEN already-set games we’d consider as near misses this week, plus a conference-wide hat tip to the Mountain West, whose tournament starts on Sunday.
Purdue at #7 Maryland — 2/25 at 8:00 p.m. ET (BTN)
Syracuse at #8 NC State — 2/27 at 8:00 p.m. ET (ACCN)
#21 Missouri State at Illinois State — 2/27 at 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+*)
Arkansas at #10 Mississippi State— 2/27 at 9:00 p.m. ET (SECN)
#4 Stanford at #13 Arizona — 2/28 at 8:00 p.m. ET (PAC12N)
Yale at #23 Princeton— 2/29 at 5:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+*)
#12 Texas A&M at #1 South Carolina — 3/1 at 12:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Virginia Tech at # 5 Louisville 3/1 at 12:00 p.m. ET (ACCN)
#18 Iowa at Rutgers — 3/1 at 12:00 p.m. ET (BTN)
#4 Stanford at #24 Arizona State — 3/1 at 2:00 p.m. ET (PAC12N)
#21 Missouri State at Bradley — 3/1 at 3:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+*)
Duke at #8 NC State— 2/24 at 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
While this game might be considered by some to be the appetizer before the main course of Oregon vs. Stanford, there’s a few excellent reasons to tune in to this one. What is arguably the biggest one has very little to do with basketball. This game is NC State’s 15th annual Play4Kay game, named in honor of the Wolfpack’s late great coach. Yow started the tradition in 2006 with the “Hoops 4 Hope” game, and it has evolved and grown from there to the national Play4Kay initiative.
Getting back to the basketball, NC State has a 44–37 lead in the series, and a 22–13 advantage on games in Raleigh. The first meeting between these two teams this season was a 63–60 Wolfpack win, a game Duke dropped despite holding NC State to just nine points in the second quarter.
On the season, all of Duke’s best statistical categories are defense-related, a fact borne out by the fact its HHS Defensive Rating is 32 slots above its Offensive one. The Blue Devils are not top-10 in any category, but are in the top 10% of the 351 teams in the country in six categories, and top-30 in four. Best among those are their 21st-ranked 5.6% block rate and 22nd-ranked 2.3 opponent blocks per game. In the first meeting, Duke held NC State to just a 2.38% block rate on a single block, both even fewer than the Blue Devils’ strong season numbers. Offensively in that first meeting, Duke was led, as it has been all season, by grad student Haley Gorecki, who notched 21 points, 3.2 above her season average. Senior Leaonna Odom is the second-leading scorer on the team, averaging 14.0 points per game. Gorecki and Odom are both in the top-10% of scoring and steals nationally. Gorecki is also in that echelon in defensive rebounds per game, pulling down 5.8 per game, while Odom lands there on the offensive glass, grabbing 2.3 per game
For NC State, junior Kayla Jones is in the top-10% in both defensive and total rebounds per game, notching 5.0 and 7.0 per game, respectively, but the Wolfpack’s unquestioned leader is sophomore Elissa Cunane, whose 7.2 and 10.0 defensive and total rebounds per game fall in the top 35, 24th and 34th respectively, and whose 2.8 offensive rebounds per game also fall in the top-10%. The Wolfpack are strong rebounders as a team, coming in sixth in defensive rebounds per game, at 30.7, and seventh in defensive rebounding rate, at 75.1%. Overall, NC State’s best categories are fouls per game and foul rate, where its 12.2 fouls per game and 15.5% foul rate slot in third and fourth respectively. In the first meeting, the Wolfpack committed just eight fouls, a number 3.1 lower than season-leader UConn’s per game average. In the first meeting between Duke and NC State, the Blue Devils played even above their own strong averages in the areas they excel in, and were able to come just three points shy of the Wolfpack, who are clearly the stronger team on the season, and who also played very well in the first meeting. Duke will need a similarly strong showing in this game to get the W, especially on NC State’s home floor in front of what should be a great Play4Kay crowd.
#3 Oregon at #4 Stanford— 2/24 at 9:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Even in the strongest conference in the nation, these two have risen to the top. Oregon and Stanford have three conference losses combined, fewer than the next team in the standings, UCLA. One of Stanford’s two losses is a 87–55 defeat to Oregon in Eugene on January 16. All-time, the Cardinal lead the series with the Ducks 54–11, but as indicated by that score in the first game and Oregon’s results recently, the gap is closing.
Oregon has been on a statistical tear all season. The Ducks are ranked No.1 in eight statistical categories and elsewhere in the top-10 in 15 more. Nearly all of those super-impressive rankings are on the offensive side of the ball, combining to give Oregon the No.1 Her Hoop Stats Overall and Offensive Rating, 2.4 points ahead of Baylor overall, and a whopping 7.9 points ahead of South Carolina on the offensive list, a gap the same size as the one between the Gamecocks and No. 12 DePaul. What makes the Ducks so strong though, is the completeness of their offensive excellence, in that they don’t just excel in shooting OR rebounding OR ball-handling OR assists, but all of the above. Not only that, in addition to being No.1 in the category, Oregon has three or more players in the top-10% in two-point percentage, assist-to-turnover ratio, effective field goal percentage, and points per scoring attempt.
Stanford has four players in the top-10% in both effective field goal and two-point percentage, and as a team, similar to Oregon, is overall stronger offensively than defensively. The Cardinal come in eight slots higher in the HHS Offensive Rating, where it is ninth, than Defensive, 17th. That being said, while this season Stanford doesn’t have any top-10 statistical rankings, four of its five highest rankings (two 12th and three 14th), are on the defensive side of the ball. Not only that, the Cardinal’s defensive strengths should counter some of the categories the Ducks excel in the most offensively, as Stanford has a 14th-ranked 34.6% opponent two-point percentage, a12th-ranked 9.6 opponent assists per game, and a 14th-ranked 45.3% opponent assisted shot rate. Stanford will need to excel in those categories, as well as its numerous other strengths, if the Cardinal want to defend their home court.
#14 Northwestern at Ohio State— 2/25 at 6:00 p.m. ET (BTN)
Ohio State leads this series 46–19, including winning seven of the last 10. This season, however, Northwestern has been the stronger team, as the Wildcats have just three losses, to the Buckeyes’ 10, and, in-conference, Northwestern has just two, to Ohio State’s six. When you look at the stats, at least in some categories, these two teams are closer than you might expect. That includes being within one (percentage) point of one another in a number of categories.
There are, of course, other categories where Northwestern has a more significant lead, including in its three top-10 categories: assist-to-turnover ratio, where the Wildcats are third at 1.54, compared to the Buckeyes’ 0.96, 87th; assisted shot rate, where Northwestern is seventh at 69.0%, whereas Ohio State is 130th at 56.8%; and assists per game where the Wildcats are ninth at 18.2 to the Buckeyes’ 47th-ranked 15.2. Individually, the Wildcats have three players in the top-10% nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio, and two, sophomores Sydney Wood and Veronica Burton, in the top 30. Wood’s 2.62 mark is 20th, while Burton’s 2.45 mark is 27th. Burton is even better, in terms of ranking, at steals than assist-to-turnover ratio, as her 3.5 steals per game are ninth in the nation. Scoring-wise, the Wildcats’ unquestioned leader is junior Lindsey Pulliam, at 19.3 points per game, but three others average double figures in points per game: Burton at 11.7 and seniors Abi Scheid and Abbie Wolf at 11.6 and 11.3, respectively.
For Ohio State, sophomore Dorka Juhasz is leading the way at 13.1 points per game, but only one other Buckeye, freshman Kierstan Bell, is in double figures, scoring 11.1 per game. Juhasz’ 8.8 total and 5.9 defensive rebounds per game are the best numbers on either team by about 2 (2.2 and 1.6, respectively, over Wolf and Scheid) per game, and her 2.9 offensive rebounds per game ties Wolf’s number. Ohio State also has the best two-point shooter on either team, percentage-wise, as freshman Jacy Sheldon’s 61.9% mark lands her 40th, 14 spots ahead of Wildcat sophomore Courtney Shaw’s 60.9%. As a team, that two-point percentage category is the Buckeyes’ strongest,, as their 50.6% ranks 27th. Ohio State will need a strong game from all its contributors if it wants to beat Northwestern’s similarly squad-wide strengths.
Penn at #23 Princeton — 2/25 at 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+*)
A quick moment of self promotion, if we may: While neither the Tigers nor the Quakers have appeared in this piece this season, HHS writers HAVE written about a player on each team. Jenn Hatfield wrote about Penn freshman Kayla Padilla, while Princeton senior Bella Alarie was selected by our Jacob Mox as one of the 10 semifinalists for the Becky Hammon Mid-Major Player of the Year Award.
All time, Princeton has a 60-30 lead in the series with Penn, and the Tigers are also on a three-game win streak against the Quakers, including a 75-55 victory earlier this season in Philadelphia. Padilla poured in 27 points, her season-high, in the losing effort on 10-14 shooting, while Alarie scored 25. Penn’s 55 points are 6.8 more than the Tigers’ nation-leading 48.2 opponent points per game average, but the Quakers are no slouch in that department. Their 53.7 opponent PPG average is eighth.
Penn will need another big effort from both its defense and Padilla if it wants to pull the upset in Jadwin Gym, where the Quakers are 28-14 all time. As you might guess from that opponent PPG number, Penn is very, very strong when it comes to opponent shooting. Its 35.6% opponent two-point percentage is fourth nationally, its best statistical ranking, while the Quakers’ 0.66 opponent points per play is not far behind, coming in sixth. After that, Penn is eighth in both turnovers per game, at 11.6, and opponent field goal percentage at 33.7%. Individually, while Padilla leads the team in scoring, with 18.1 points per game, junior Eleah Parker and senior Phoebe Sterba average double figures in scoring, at 12.5 and 10.9, respectively. Parker also leads the team in all three rebounds per game categories and her 2.5 blocks per game rank 25th in the country. Sterba’s 2.24 assist-to-turnover ratio is second on the team, but ranks 47th. It’s the team leader in that category, though, that has the highest-ranked statistical numbers, as senior Kendall Grasela’s 2.97 mark in that category is 10th-best in the nation, and her 1.9% foul rate is ninth.
Whereas Penn has a few players leading the way statistically, Princeton has two, with Alarie its unquestioned leader. She is the team leader not only in points, at 17.8 per game, but blocks and two of the three rebounds per game (and in offensive rebounds, the one she is third in, her 2.2 per game is still in the top-10% nationally). The Tigers’ second-leading scorer is junior Carlie Littlefield, who leads the team in steals, with 2.0 per game, and assists, with 2.3. Littlefield’s impressive steal mark no doubt contributes to Princeton’s ninth-ranked 13.4% steal rate, but that ranking is nowhere close to the Tigers’ best category. Other than the abovementioned nation-leading opponent points per game, they are second best in the country, in opponent points per play, at 0.62, just 0.01 behind leader Baylor, and in opponent assist-to-turnover ratio, again behind the Lady Bears, and where the difference is 0.003. Overall, inclusive of those mentioned, the Tigers are top-10 in 16 categories, nearly all defense-related, and it will be a tough task for the Quakers to win, especially in Princeton. As you can see, if you like defense and stars, this is a game worth tuning in for.
#16 DePaul at Marquette — 3/1 at 3:00 p.m. ET (FS2)
DePaul is 44–27 all-time against Marquette, but the Golden Eagles actually have a 20–11 advantage in games played in Milwaukee. That said, the Blue Demons decisively won the first meeting between these two teams this season, 89–71, in Chicago. DePaul clinched the outright regular season Big East title on Friday, and will get to play as the No.1 seed in the Big East Tournament in Sweet Home Chicago.
In the first meeting, DePaul had four players score in double figures, led by sophomore Lexi Held, whose 22 points were 7.5 above her season per-game average. In fact, three of the four Blue Demons who scored in double figures in that game scored above their season averages. On the season, senior Chante Stonewall is the team’s leading scorer, but it is arguably senior Kelly Campbell leading the way statistically for DePaul. Campbell’s 6.0 assists per game are 12th nationally, while her 5.83 assist-to-turnover ratio is second. Those numbers correlate with, and obviously strongly contribute to, the Blue Demons’ strongest categories as a team, as their 1.49 assist-to-turnover ratio and 21.8 opponent turnovers per game both rank fifth in the country, while their 14.1% turnover rate, 11.5 steals per game, and 19.7 assists per game are all sixth.
Marquette is nearly as strong as DePaul in assists, coming in 10th at 18.1 per game, and are even stronger than the Blue Demons in assisted shot rate, coming in sixth at 69.7%, but the Golden Eagles’ true strength is in rebounding. Their total rebounding rate of 57.1% is sixth, but their strongest category overall is opponent total rebounds per game, where their 29.0 mark is best in the nation, and their 20.3 defensive rebounds per game is fourth. In the first game, Marquette, as they have all season, both out-rebounded DePaul (by four, 36–32), and outshot the Blue Demons (by 4.2%), but the Golden Eagles were still unable to take down the Blue Demons. They will need to play even better, if that’s possible, to pick up the win in this game, although hopefully their home court advantage will help, as it has throughout this series.
Check out our new feature, Lobo’s Look, for comparing any two teams in the country. Here it is for Oregon at Stanford, but have fun putting in whichever teams you want to see.
We know it’s hard to keep track of all the Games to Watch, especially the midweek ones, so we’ve started a Google Calendar. You can find it here, with the iCal link here.
*Paid/subscription service
All stats (from Her Hoop Stats) are for games through February 23. AP rankings are up to date as of the February 24 poll.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram.