Her Hoop Stats Bracketology
The top 16 seeds if the season ended today, plus a new podcast episode!
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On February 3rd, during halftime of the UConn vs. Oregon game, the NCAA selection committee revealed their projected top 16 seeds in the tournament.
The top 16 seeds are particularly important in the women’s tournament, as those teams will host the first two rounds. However, a lot has changed since the release. In what has been one of the most fun and unpredictable seasons in recent memory, we’ve seen countless upsets and changes in the rankings. Taking everything into account that’s happened in the last 23 days, below is a re-projected view of what the top-16 seeds would look like now:
There’s really no surprises at the top, as South Carolina, Oregon and Baylor are recognized unanimously as being the top tier in college basketball this season. All three are undefeated since the last reveal, but Oregon jumps Baylor in the seeding list due to the strength of their Pac-12 schedule. Since then, the Ducks have picked up quality wins over UConn, Arizona, UCLA and Stanford. While this affects the true seeding order, it won’t affect the regional location for these three teams (more on that later).
Sliding into the fourth number one spot is Maryland. We talk often about how UConn’s conference schedule hurts the Huskies, and the Terrapins are the case of the opposite. Their rise to the top line is a testament to the strength of the Big Ten, and their success in it so far. According to ESPN’s bracketology, the Big Ten has the most teams currently projected to be in the full field with eight. Maryland also has five conference opponents ranked in the top 30 (per their Her Hoop Stats rating). Extending out to include Rutgers which tabs in at 37, the Terrapins are an impressive 10-4 against Her Hoop Stats’ top 50 teams. They’re also third in RPI, and anyway you stack it, they have the strongest resume outside of the top three.
Moving down to the two-seed line, the top is really splitting hairs. I could see the committee going either way on the Louisville vs. UConn debate. If you don’t believe me, take a look at the resume comparison tool on our site. Ultimately, I think Louisville gets the slight edge here for more top-25 wins, a higher RPI, and the caveat that they were missing a starter (Elizabeth Balogun) for their two ACC losses. Sitting at seventh overall is Stanford, and then Northwestern rounds out the line. Northwestern sat at just 16th in the last reveal, but is now tied atop the Big Ten standings at 14-2 in conference play with Maryland and ranks 7th in RPI.
The three line features four more power conference teams with strong resumes, but things get interesting on the four-seed line. Gonzaga (27-2) and Missouri State (22-3) both check in here currently. Given their conference strength of schedules however, they both have a very slim margin for error. For either to host, they likely need to win out. Otherwise there are quite a few power five teams right on the bubble to pick up those spots.
When all is said and done, of course, it’s the match-ups that tend to matter more than the seeding. Here’s a look at how the above seed list would fall into the regional groupings:
The strength of the Pac-12 and Big Ten makes this exercise extremely challenging. The bracket rules don’t allow for conference-mates to meet before the regional finals or for two teams from the same conference to belong in the top four seeds of the same region. Because of this, for example, while UConn should be slated as the two-seed in Dallas, they get pushed over to Portland. Placing the Huskies with Baylor, both of which are the sole representatives from their conference in the top four lines, is impossible while maintaining balanced regions.
Of course, this just represents where everything stands at this moment in time. With the constant chaos we have seen this season and ten top-25 teams in action on this Thursday’s slate, it’s likely by Friday things will already look a little different.
We also released a new Her Hoop Stats Podcast with John Liddle today. Adam Amin joins John to talk about the Oregon vs. Stanford game, Sabrina Ionescu reaching 2,000 points, 1,000 rebounds and 1,000 assists, and more. Listen to the full podcast (39 minutes) to hear the full discussion. You can subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Google Play, Spotify, and more. Already a subscriber? Then please rate and review us so more people can learn about our work.