Her Hoop Stats Bracketology
Taking a first look at where the top-16 seeds in NCAA women’s basketball stand right now
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It’s hard to believe, but Selection Monday is just over two months away. We’ll get a first look at the top-16 seeds from the NCAA women’s basketball selection committee in a few weeks, but with nearly two months of the season complete, we have enough data points to start predicting what the top seed lines might look like come March.
This season has already yielded tons of parity, and the start of conference play has brought plenty of excitement as well. It is likely that we’ll see a lot of changes on the top four lines right up until the final bracket is announced.
A few notes on the below top-16 seeds:
The bracket is based on all games through January 9 and considers all results so far but does not adjust for expected future results.
The committee considers availability of talent in their selection process. Therefore, I have assumed that all players expected to be active for the NCAA tournament are available. (Notable examples include Ohio State’s Jacy Sheldon, Indiana’s Grace Berger and UConn’s Azzi Fudd).
As Her Hoop Stats’ certified bracketologist, here’s how I’d expect the top-16 seeds to fall as of today:
The NCAA tournament this year will feature just two regional sites (Greenville, S.C., and Seattle, Wash.). Half of the bracket will be slotted to each spot. Here’s how that would look by region:
The No. 1 Seeds
South Carolina in the No.1 overall spot comes as no surprise. The Gamecocks are undefeated and rank first in NET rating. From a bracketology perspective right now, Ohio State has the advantage over Stanford for the second overall spot. It’s a close call between the two, but the Buckeyes are undefeated and their best wins over Michigan and Oregon (on a neutral court) are just slightly better than Stanford’s over Arizona and Gonzaga at home. Ohio State is also 7-0 against teams ranked in the top-50 of the NET rankings, whereas Stanford is 4-1.
UConn rounds out the top four, after Notre Dame lost to North Carolina on Sunday afternoon, the Fighting Irish’s second loss on the season. While the Huskies have two losses, they’ve also played the toughest schedule in the country so far this season. Additionally, their loss to Maryland came without Fudd, Nika Mühl and Dorka Juhász. The committee will consider those absences when evaluating those results.
The LSU Conundrum
LSU is particularly difficult to seed. The Tigers are 16-0, rank second in the NET, and fourth in Her Hoop Stats Rating. But, their strength of schedule (using opponents’ average net rating) is 289th in the country, and they’ve played just one opponent (Arkansas) that ranks in the top 50 of Her Hoop Stats Rating.
There are very few historical examples of a team that has had such success in the metrics while playing such a weak schedule. The best data point available is the 2014-15 Princeton Tigers.
Princeton was 30-0 entering Selection Monday for the 2015 NCAA tournament, ranking sixth in Her Hoop Stats rating nationally and 13th in RPI. Their opponents’ average net rating, a good measure of strength of schedule, was -0.2 and ranked 163rd in the nation. LSU’s is currently -4.8 and ranked 289th. The Ivy League champion was a No. 8 seed in the NCAA tournament. Princeton had a very similar season in 2019-20, and while a bracket was never released because the tournament was canceled, the Tigers did not appear in the committee’s top-16 reveal.
If LSU continues on its current trajectory and finishes well in the SEC, the Tigers could certainly play their way into the top-16 seeds this season. However, because we’re looking at just their current body of work, I don’t think the Tigers would host the opening rounds if the tournament started today.
A surprise from the ACC
Perhaps one of the most surprising things in this top 16 is Duke improving to the No. 2 seed line. While the Blue Devils only just re-entered the AP top 25 last week, they boast one of the strongest resumes in the country. Kara Lawson’s squad has just one loss - a neutral site contest with UConn in November. Duke’s hot 4-0 start to conference play, including a statement win over NC State, lands them in sole possession of first place in the ACC and a spot on the two-line.
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LSU hasn't even hit the hard part of their schedule yet. They haven't played *anybody*. I wouldn't rank them so high. Duke is a lot better than people think. Iowa State is about to plunge due to the loss of an important post player. UConn is romping through the Big East but if they had to play anywhere else they would be hurting with all the injuries they've had. Watch VA Tech and Tennessee. Maryland? Iffy. Maybe a little lower. Just my opinion.