Her Hoop Stats Bracketology
The top 5 seeds by region, based on games through February 10th
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We’re just 18 days from March 2021, as crazy as that seems, which means Selection Monday is approaching in the not-so-distant future. As our Her Hoop Stats’ bracketologist, I took a look at where the field stands right now for the top five seeds in each region. (I’ve also updated my resume to include Her Hoop Stats’ certified bracketologist, as I spent part of my COVID summer taking a course in bracketology from Joe Lunardi, ESPN’s men’s basketball’s bracketologist.
There are a few things to note before we get into the field. This season is complicated in many ways, especially as it comes to COVID and trying to decide how to evaluate teams against each other with minimal non-conference games to point to and varying game totals. Women’s basketball has also replaced RPI with NET rankings this year, adding another new element to predicting this season’s bracket.
The entire tournament moving to San Antonio and the surrounding region also has bracketology implications. Geography typically plays a role in which region each team is assigned to, and the opportunity to eliminate this constraint in 2021 as the men’s tournament has done allows seeding to more closely follow the S-curve. Keep in mind that the committee will still maintain the principle that conference opponents should avoid meeting until the regional finals and that the first four teams from each conference should be seeded into different regions. As a result, some deviations from the true S-curve will still occur.
Here’s a look at how all of the above shakes out for the top five seeds in each region, as of games through February 10th. (A full true seed list from 1-20 is included at the end of the article.)
It’s taken a while this season, but we have started to see some separation at the top. The four one-seeds in our bracket (South Carolina, UConn, Stanford and Louisville) have separated themselves from the rest of the pack, but NC State and Maryland are hanging close on the two-seed line waiting to take their place should another unexpected loss come along (there have been plenty this season, after all). Despite losing to UConn on Monday, South Carolina keeps its position as the No. 1 overall seed. The Gamecocks’ two losses have come to top teams, UConn and NC State earlier this season, and being undefeated against the rigor of their SEC slate keeps them in the top spot.
Unsurprisingly, we see a heavy presence of SEC teams in the top five seeds. While the SEC leads the way with six teams in the top-20 overall seeds, the Pac-12 and Big Ten aren’t far behind with four and three, respectively. This causes some disruption of the S-curve in how teams are slotted into regions due to the rule about separating conference members into different regions. The most notable example at the moment is Louisville as the “worst” one-seed and No. 4 overall while ACC colleague N.C. State is the “best” two-seed and No. 5 overall. In a true S-curve, they would be on a path to meet in the Elite 8, but by rule they are placed into two different regions.
One last thing to note: Texas A&M is probably one of the best three-seeds in recent memory. By the eye test and their SEC resume, I want to put them on the two-seed line. However, they sit at 15th in the NET rankings and 16th in our Her Hoop Stats rating, so I’m finding it hard to put them in the top eight right now. However, there’s still plenty of time for the Aggies to move up in the automated rankings and the NET in particular is just one component of how the committee evaluates teams, so they could easily grab a spot on the two-seed line in the future.
True seed list (1-20)
South Carolina
UConn
Stanford
Louisville
NC State
Maryland
Texas A&M
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?