Her Hoop Stats Bracketology: Top 16 Seeds
With five of six major conference tournaments wrapped up, a lot has happened since the last the last committee reveal
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The Big East tournament wrapped up Monday night, as UConn took down Villanova 70-40. That leaves only the Big 12 tournament to be played among the six major conferences. In the ACC and Pac-12, we also saw the top seeds come out on top, while in the SEC, Kentucky pulled off upsets over the top three seeds to claim the trophy. Iowa took home the crown in the Big Ten, winning both a share of the regular-season title and the tournament championship.
All those outcomes, and more, have led to a lot of changes in the top 16 seeds for the NCAA tournament. In the women’s tournament, the top 16 overall seeds host the opening two rounds of the tournament, making falling somewhere between the one and four-seed lines particularly advantageous. As a refresher, the NCAA women’s basketball selection committee gave us their final preview of the top 16 seeds on Monday, February 28th. Here’s what that looked like:
Ten of those 16 teams suffered losses over the last week. Knowing those results, here’s how I currently project the top 16 seeds will fall:
Despite their loss to Kentucky, South Carolina remains the No. 1 overall seed. The Gamecocks’ resume is still the best in the country by a long shot. Stanford and NC State also hold their positions from the reveal after winning their respective conference tournaments.
Things get a bit more complicated in that fourth one-seed spot. Louisville remains there for now, even after losing to Miami in the ACC quarterfinals. However, Baylor still has a conference tournament to play. Should the Bears win out, and especially if they pick up a win over Big 12 two-seed Iowa State or three-seed Texas in the process, they will likely claim the final spot on the top line and the Cardinals would fall to the best two-seed.
On the two-seed line below Baylor, things got very messy over the last week. Iowa State got blown out by the Bears less than an hour after last week’s reveal. However, LSU and Michigan both also lost in the first games of their respective conference tournaments, which allows Iowa State to keep their position.
As we discussed on Her Hoop Stats: Unplugged last week, the difference between LSU, Michigan, UConn and Texas was really splitting hairs heading into the last reveal. As a result, LSU’s loss to Kentucky and Michigan’s loss to Nebraska is enough for UConn and Texas to claim the final two two-seeds. The Tigers and Wolverines slide down to three-seeds.
Michigan is just one of four Big Ten teams that land on the three and four-seed lines. Iowa climbs to a three-seed as well after a strong finish to the regular season and a Big Ten tournament title. Indiana, which fell to Iowa in the tournament final, also climbed to the top four-seed after securing quality wins over Maryland and Ohio State in the tournament. The Terps remain in a position to host, with all the teams knocking on the door of the top 16 seeds suffering losses before their conference championship finals.
Tennessee also lost to Kentucky in the SEC tournament, but the Volunteers are still without Jordan Horston. Assuming that Horston is still expected to be available for the tournament, that loss does not hurt them and they move up one spot to the last three-seed. Arizona is also dealing with an injury to Cate Reese, but with their loss coming in the conference tournament quarterfinals (compared to the semifinals for Tennessee), they fall to the four-seed line.
The final spot in the top 16 is tricky. Oklahoma lost to Kansas since the reveal, but all the teams just behind the Sooners (Notre Dame, Oregon, and UNC) also lost. BYU is also in the mix and claims that spot for now. However, the Sooners could play their way back into it if they pick up quality wins in the Big 12 tournament. If BYU wins their conference tournament final on Tuesday, however, I’d like to see them stay there. That said, history shows the committee tends to favor ‘power five’ teams.
So, what’s on the line in the Big 12 tournament?
As mentioned above, Baylor’s chances at a one-seed and Oklahoma’s chances to host the opening rounds will be determined in the Big 12 tournament. Texas and Iowa State’s positions will also depend on the outcomes of that tournament. Both are on the two-seed line right now, but it is unlikely they’ll both stay there.
The Big 12 will also impact the regional placement on the two-seed line, perhaps most notably whether UConn will land close to home in Bridgeport. Currently, the Huskies’ position on the S-curve doesn’t place them in Bridgeport, although it would not be surprising for the committee to shift them there anyways to reduce travel expenditures. However, another loss for Iowa State in the Big 12 tournament would shift UConn to the No. 6 overall seed and land them in Bridgeport on the S-curve.
Breaking it down by region
For those curious, here is how I think the committee would place teams by region right now. This will change based on Big 12 tournament outcomes.
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