Her Hoop Stats Writers' 2020 WNBA End of Season Awards Picks
Members of the Her Hoop Stats team debate who should take home the WNBA end of season awards this year
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The WNBA regular season wrapped up Sunday, and the playoffs are set to tip on Tuesday evening. Now that the season is complete, a few members of our Her Hoop Stats team debated who should take home the WNBA end of season awards this year.
Rookie of the Year
Megan Gauer: I’d just like to point out that in our preseason round table I said that I wouldn’t be shocked to see this award fall to a second-round pick. For me, this is the easiest to pick of all the end of the season awards - and it’s Crystal Dangerfield. She ranked in the top 25 in the league for Win Shares, and averaged 16.2 points and 3.6 assists per game. Plus, she was a starter and consistent top contributor on a team in the top half of the league standings - something that can’t be said for any other ROY candidate.
Richard Cohen: Ultimately, I don't think this one is particularly close. Chennedy Carter missed over a quarter of the season, which in what might’ve been a tight race is enough to make a difference. Satou Sabally, while impressive in spurts, has shot poorly for most of the year and had some defensive struggles. Julie Allemand did a quietly effective job in Indiana and shot fantastically, but on limited volume (and with even worse defense). Meanwhile, when asked to step up, Crystal Dangerfield has done an outstanding job in Minnesota. Their whole scheme and approach changed when Sylvia Fowles got hurt, and while Dangerfield was already in the starting lineup by then, the shift placed a much heavier load on her shoulders. She's run the show on a good team, scored heavily and efficiently while creating a lot of her own offense, and somehow managed to get Cheryl Reeve to trust a rookie point guard. Time for Dangerfield to get some respect, and a shiny trophy.
Calvin Wetzel: The lowest draft pick ever to win Rookie of the Year is Tracy Reid, who was drafted 7th in 1998. This year that record is going to be shattered by the 16th overall pick of 2020. Forget the stats for a second — can anyone stay in front of Crystal Dangerfield? She stabilized a backcourt that was in constant flux around her and, along with her former UConn teammate Napheesa Collier, led the Lynx to a season few outside the organization thought they would have. Nearly the entire roster around Dangerfield and Collier missed time, including every other guard except for Bridget Carleton, but Dangerfield’s steady presence at the point was a huge key to Minnesota's top-four finish.
Clay Kallam: Dangerfield has to be my pick as well. It’s been a bit of a strange season for the rookies. Dangerfield may not have had the season of recent winners Napheesa Collier or A’ja Wilson or even last year’s runner-up Arike Ogunbowale, but as you’ve said she’s played a key role on a top-four team. It will be interesting to see how her career develops from here.
MVP
CK: The default choice for MVP is the best player on the best team. Under the pretense that Seattle is the best team when she’s playing, that would be Breanna Stewart. Traditionalists go for familiar numbers -- and Stewart with 19.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG and 3.6 APG while shooting 45.1% overall and 36.8% from three would be their choice too. Eye-testers marvel at her mix of size, athleticism, intensity and basketball IQ. And the stat freaks go for her PER, which topped the league among players with her volume of minutes. So really, is there anything to discuss?
CW: Breanna Stewart and A’ja Wilson were both top five in basically all of the value stats: offensive win shares, defensive win shares, player efficiency rating. With all due respect to players like Candace Parker, Diana Taurasi, Napheesa Collier, and Courtney Vandersloot, Stewart and Wilson played at the highest level consistently throughout this season. It’s splitting hairs, but I’m going with Wilson for how much she had to carry for her team. The Aces were seen by many as a team primed to take a small step backwards after losing Liz Cambage to opt-out and Kelsey Plum to injury. Instead, all they did is earn the top overall seed on the back of Wilson’s 27.2% usage rate in 31.8 minutes per game. Only Arike Ogunbowale had a higher usage rate among players who played that many minutes.
MG: I’d second Calvin here that this one can go one of two ways - Breanna Stewart or A’ja Wilson. I think you can make a really strong case for either to come out on top, but I’m going with Stewart. Stewart did play slightly fewer minutes, which is likely a result of the Storm leading the league in margin per game and needing her on the court less in late game situations. However, her usage rate was higher than Wilson’s at 28.7 percent. Despite the number of excellent players on the Storm, she still carried the team.
RC: I was all set to be incredibly boring with this pick. Then I talked myself out of it. Then, somewhat sadly, I talked myself back into it. Breanna Stewart wasn't just the best player on the best team. She's been elite at both ends of the floor, on offense she hurts you inside and out (the range beyond the arc is a key element in her favor over A'ja Wilson), and - while Seattle was a decent team in 2019 - she's been the central difference between 18-16 and 18-4. I almost picked Courtney Vandersloot, who was exceptional, somehow improved even on her play the last couple of years, and was hugely valuable because the Sky disintegrated without her. But Stewart's defense and Chicago's mediocre record pushed me back. Wilson's third for me, just very slightly short of Stewart in certain key areas.
Defensive Player of the Year
CK: Defensive metrics don’t really measure much, but those that we have love Natasha Howard. As a defender, I love Howard, who plays the pick-and-roll like a very hungry predator shown limping prey, who has the quickness to stay in front of all but the best perimeter players, and who has the leaping ability and strength to bang with the big bodies.
RC: While they weren’t so much better than everybody else to demand that DPOY should come from their ranks - and much of their success comes from team cohesion and taking collective responsibility - I found myself picking between three Seattle players. Advanced defensive metrics love Natasha Howard, and you can see why on-court, but she only averaged 21 minutes a night. That diminishes the value she offered. Breanna Stewart was literally the central figure in Seattle's league-leading defense all year with her length and mobility, and the numbers love her too. But with this one, I talked myself into the pick I wanted to make, rather than out of it. Alysha Clark is the closest thing Seattle has to a designated stopper, taking the primary perimeter threat every night. When you go back through Storm box scores, it's remarkable how many of those opponents have something like 4-13 or 3-9 in the shooting column. She didn't have the same counting stats as some alternatives for this award (although she was 13th in the league in steals, for those who like that kind of thing), but it's about being consistently in the right place and making the opposing star work painfully hard for everything they get. On pure impact, this award might have to go to a big every year, because it's hard to affect the game defensively as much from the perimeter as you can in the paint. But on performance, this year I think Clark deserves it.
CW: This is always a tough award to base simply on stats, but here’s one anyway — in the seven games that Sylvia Fowles played, Napheesa Collier averaged 0.9 blocks per game. In 15 games without Fowles, Collier averaged 1.5 blocks per game. She was asked to do much more in terms of protecting the rim without her frontcourt partner, and yet she was also able to step out and defend guards and contain pick-and-rolls. Admittedly, part of me just thinks Collier deserves some type of award for how much she did this season, but she didn’t quite improve enough for Most Improved Player and didn’t quite do enough for MVP (although I think she’s closer to both than many give her credit for). This one makes the most sense.
MG: I’m also going with Collier here. In addition to the stats that Calvin cited, she was also top ten in the league for defensive Win Shares. What really stands out is how crucial Collier’s defensive performance was to the Lynx’s success this year. With Fowles missing most of the season, it would have been unsurprising (if not expected) for the Lynx to fall down in the rankings, especially due to a weaker presence on the glass. Instead, Collier stepped up her game and led the Lynx to the four seed.
Most Improved Player
CK: A lot of the time, the Most Improved Player just gets put in a situation where she gets more minutes. Her rate stats don’t increase that much, but her numbers go up, and that’s enough most seasons. But Betnijah Laney truly improved -- her minutes went up by 29% which should have raised her scoring average from 5.6 to 7.2. Instead, she averaged 16.7 PPG. Assists? Should have increased to 2.2; actually jumped to 4.1. Her overall shooting went from 36.2% to 47.0%; three-point percentage from 30.3% to 40.3%; and her free-throw percentage from 58.1% to 82.9%. ‘Nuf sed.
CW: This year’s list of candidates is unusually good, so multiple players who would have a real case most years are going to end up missing out on this award in 2020. I have to go with Betnijah Laney for the same reason as Clay — it’s not the Most Improved Situation award, it’s the Most Improved Player award. Players like Kahleah Copper and Myisha Hines-Allen were phenomenal and certainly better than they were in previous years. But much of their rise in production was due to heightened opportunity as a result of injuries or opt-outs by players ahead of them. Laney wasn’t stuck behind anyone on the depth chart last year — she played 26 minutes per game in 2019 on a team with not a whole lot around her. Despite that, her statistical increase across the board jumps off the page. She took basically twice as many shots per game as she did last year and still saw huge leaps in efficiency.
RC: I love Myisha Hines-Allen. I really, really do. She had a fantastic season. This also seems incredibly unfair, because I'm basically saying "I had an inkling you might be able to do this, whereas it seemed impossible for that other person, so you lose". But that's the case. Hines-Allen was outstanding, and made a leap that didn't seem remotely likely before the season started, but Betnijah Laney looked like an entirely new human. A combo-forward used for energy and defense on a variety of teams without managing to stick anywhere, who was cut by a bad team during preseason, somehow mutated into what we saw this year. She played over 33 minutes a night and shot outstandingly well, showcasing a variety of impressive moves and playmaking skills, while cementing her place in this league and likely a very different role going forward. I hate when this award goes to someone who just got more minutes. Give me someone who's visibly, demonstrably improved her skills. Laney has (but if you wanted to vote for Hines-Allen, I wouldn't be mad).
MG: Echoing what everyone has said above, Hines-Allen has an excellent case for this one but I think Laney edges her out. Given the unique nature of this season we saw many players who had bigger roles than they’ve been accustomed to in the past, but it comes down whose game improved by a factor of more than their increased playing time. Clay hits the nail on the head with the stats he offered above, and it’s Laney.
Sixth Woman of the Year
CK: In a lot of ways, this is sort of a goofy award. Dearica Hamby is pretty clearly the winner, but aside from the fact that she’s not on the court for the opening tipoff, she was basically a starter. She played 28 minutes a game while “starter” Lindsay Allen played half that. In fact, only A’ja Wilson played more than Hamby, but by the rules, Hamby is a “sixth woman.” Bria Hartley, who would have been in the discussion before her injury, is in the same category: She was playing 24.8 minutes per game despite only three starts in 13 games. Really, this award should be called “Starter Who Coach Brings Off The Bench For No Apparent Reason.”
CW: To Clay’s point, Dearica Hamby played more minutes this season than Breanna Stewart. She played over 620 minutes off the bench, and no one outside of the Aces even played 420. So yeah, it’s kind of cheating. But that doesn’t mean she doesn’t deserve the award — she’s in the top 20 in win shares per 40 minutes and in PER. Simply put, she’d be instrumental in winning games for the Aces even if she weren’t getting starter minutes.
RC: Yeah, it's Hamby. Sami Whitcomb was very useful for Seattle, Bria Hartley was definitely in the conversation before her injury, and Hamby's teammate Jackie Young was another key part of Las Vegas's strong bench - but it's an easy pick. Hamby's become a classy scorer and effective rebounder who just happens to play for a coach who likes to bring her off the bench and on a team with a superstar at the same spot. She closed most games, even if she didn't start them, and everyone knows that she's part of their true first-choice five. This just lets her earn a little bonus.
MG: Going to keep it short and sweet here, and say ditto. It’s Hamby.
Coach of the Year
CW: Cheryl Reeve gets a lot of credit for winning big with teams that don’t seem to have the talent to win big. And rightfully so. But the Lynx are talented. And Reeve doesn’t get enough credit for that. She’s a player developer — she is likely to turn a draft pick outside of the top five into the Rookie of the Year for the second straight year this season. And how good were Bridget Carleton and Damiris Dantas this year? The praise for running a “more than the sum of their parts” team is earned, but Reeve also elevates the level of each of those parts. For that, she is my Coach of the Year.
CK: It takes a certain kind of coach to handle a talented team on a title run. To make it all work, some very good players have to accept lesser roles, and one of the coach’s biggest jobs is to make sure everyone understands and accepts their roles. Then, the talent is maximized and championships follow. It takes another kind of coach to take an undertalented team and motivate the players not only to play hard and play within themselves, but to execute gameplans flawlessly. Often a coach who is great when she has better talent struggles when she doesn’t -- but that’s not the case with Cheryl Reeve, who proved this season that she’s just a great coach, no matter what her roster looks like.
MG: No one had Minnesota vying for a first round bye in the playoffs this season, and with good reason given the missing pieces and newer cast of characters on the Lynx roster. But Cheryl Reeve has an incredibly young Minnesota team that lost Sylvia Fowles after just seven games at fourth in the league. No question here, if you ask me.
RC: As with most years, there are several worthy candidates here. Gary Kloppenburg stepped in at short notice to preside over a team that finished #1 in both offensive and defensive rating in the WNBA. That doesn't happen very often. Despite the loss of Cambage and Plum, Bill Laimbeer built an unorthodox but extremely effective team with Las Vegas. Derek Fisher quietly drew an impressive season from his Sparks squad after all the turmoil at the end of last season. However, I can't look past Cheryl Reeve. In preseason, a lot of people thought this might be the year that the Lynx finally dropped out of the playoffs, and then after playing in just seven games they lost the focal point of their system at both ends of the floor in Sylvia Fowles. Reeve changed things up where necessary, showed trust in unlikely pieces like Carleton and Dangerfield and molded a squad that few other coaches would've pushed to such an impressive level. They've overachieved, and that's what the best head coaches lead their teams to do.
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