How Good is the Big Ten?
How Good is the Big Ten?
Maryland and Indiana lead the conference, but Ohio State, Michigan, Iowa and Nebraska aren't far behind
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Just how good is the Big Ten?
Most teams in the conference have played a dozen or so games this season (Iowa lost several due to COVID), so we’ve had some time to assess. While pre-conference schedules and injuries have provided some wrinkles, the top of the conference remains mostly intact from the preseason polls: Maryland and Indiana seem like the class of the group, although they have five losses between them thanks to some challenging early-season opponents.
The Terps and Hoosiers have the highest Her Hoop Stats ratings in the Big Ten (Maryland is ranked sixth, in line with their place in the AP poll, while Indiana is 10th), with the next four conference teams grouped pretty closely together. Compare that to the ACC, which has three teams among the top 10 in Her Hoop Stats Ratings (NC State at #2, Louisville at #5 and North Carolina at #9).
Looking at the conference now, it’s not hard to see seven Big Ten teams getting to the NCAA Tournament next year. Here’s a look at the conference, in order of current Her Hoop Stats Rating as of Thursday, December 23rd.
Maryland (10-3, No. 6 in HHS Rating)
The Terps set themselves a tough pre-conference schedule to prepare for the NCAA Tournament, but things didn’t go to plan when injury and illness sidelined starters Diamond Miller and Katie Benzan, along with reserve Faith Masonius. Maryland’s best win came at home against Baylor, but blowout losses to N.C. State and Stanford while all three players were out followed. The Terps gave top-ranked South Carolina a good battle without Miller, who this week saw her first significant minutes of the season. Maryland needs her rebounding help to free its high-powered transition offense. The lowest FG percentage last season among the starting five was 44%; this year three starters are below that mark. The Terps already have conference wins against Purdue and Rutgers, but the Jan. 2 game against Indiana looms large.
Indiana (9-2, No. 9 in HHS Rating)
Like Maryland, Indiana has lost to N.C. State and Stanford, but both of those were by margins of 8 or less. The Hoosiers have five starters who average double-figures in scoring, and while Ali Patberg is taking fewer shots this season, she’s making more of them. Indiana practices team rebounding; four of its starters average at least five boards a game, led by Mackenzie Holmes. This is a veteran team playing like it, although the bench isn’t particularly deep. Indiana already has two conference wins (against Penn State and a convincing 20-point win over Ohio State in Columbus), but also plays both Maryland and Iowa twice in the regular season. Like the Terps and Hawkeyes, the question for the Hoosiers is how much deeper they can go into the postseason.
Ohio State (9-2, No. 19 in HHS Rating)
A relatively weak early-season schedule made the Buckeyes look like an offensive juggernaut, especially from the perimeter. Guards Jacy Sheldon and Taylor Mikesell average a combined 35 points a game and have made 57 threes in 11 games. As a team, the Buckeyes lead the nation in both field goal percentage (49.3%) and effective field goal percentage (56.4%). But the loss of Dorka Juhasz, who transferred to UConn, has left Ohio State thinner up front and vulnerable to dribble penetration and offensive rebounding. That showed in losses to Indiana and Syracuse. A scheduled game against UCLA that was canceled due to COVID would have provided a useful test. We’ll have to wait for the New Year’s Eve matchup at Michigan instead.
Nebraska (12-0, No. 21 in HHS Rating)
Of all of the questions about how good Big Ten teams are, the biggest one might be about Nebraska. Yes, the Cornhuskers have rolled most of their opponents, but those opponents have an average HHS ranking of 160.75. Still, even if one wants to argue Nebraska isn’t as amazing as its record would indicate, the Huskers are VERY good, and, in what may come to be even more important as the season goes on, they are balanced. Nebraska ranks fifth nationally in both field goal percentage AND opponent field goal percentage, are top-15 in both two-point and opponent two-point percentages, and top FIVE in points per scoring attempt (PPSA) and opponent PPSA. That balance extends to the individual players on the Huskers’ roster, as 13 players have appeared in at least 10 games, and seven of them have green field goal percentages on HHS, meaning they are in the top third of shooters among qualified players. Oregon transfer Jaz Shelley has made this team much harder to defend, and they’ve got more size inside, too. We’ll get an answer to the big question pretty quickly: in the space of 12 days in early January, they host Michigan and Iowa and then travel to Indiana and Iowa.
Michigan (11-1, No. 24 in HHS Rating)
Michigan picked up their biggest win of the season in Uncasville, CT, last Sunday, 74-68 over Baylor in OT, revenging last season’s Sweet 16 defeat. As a result, the Wolverines find themselves in the top 10 of the AP Poll for the first time in program history. The Baylor game showed off a lot of the strengths of this year’s Michigan squad, including what might end up being the most important, depth behind All-American Naz Hillmon. Hillmon fouled out with 22 seconds to go in the 4th quarter, but the Wolverines found a way to win anyway, mostly on the strength of a 25-point performance from Leigha Brown. Michigan’s only loss this season was a 70-48 shellacking at the hands of then-#10, now #3, Louisville, who managed to hold the Wolverines to 37.3% shooting, including just 13.3% from beyond the arc. It would appear Michigan learned a lot in that game and took it to heart, based on the Baylor win and the two conference wins the Wolverines have already picked up. That said, those two victories came against 3-9 Wisconsin and 7-6 (but 0-2 in conference) Minnesota, but their next two games are against AP #24 Ohio State and Nebraska, is receiving votes in the poll. Those two games should give us a much better idea of how Michigan might fare in regular season conference play and beyond.
Iowa (6-3, No. 30 in HHS Rating)
Iowa was rolling at 4-0 when COVID shut the program down. In their first game back, they dropped a game to Duke in Durham where they looked exactly as you’d expect a squad that hadn’t played anyone outside of an intrasquad in a couple weeks to look. They came out flat and out of rhythm, shooting a full 6.7% below their season FG% average. Post-Duke loss, they’ve gone W-L-W-L, all against teams ranked 63rd or better in HHS Rating. Iowa’s one-point loss at home to a good IUPUI team on Tuesday should provide some motivation for the upcoming conference schedule, but it also highlighted one of the Hawkeyes’ issues from last season: Caitlin Clark could use some help on the perimeter. When she’s involved, Gabbie Marshall can score, but Iowa’s offense has looked pretty much like last year’s edition. That’s still a high-scoring offense, but in tight games that focuses the pressure on Clark and Monika Czinano.
Northwestern (9-3, No. 48 in HHS Rating)
If you want to see a lot of pretty shooting and points scored, don’t watch Northwestern. That said, if you want to see impressive defense and other fundamentals, absolutely watch the Wildcats. Northwestern ranks 209th nationally (again, out of 356 teams) in FG%, and 240th in 2PT%. On the flipside, they are 29th nationally in opponent 2PT%, and top-50 in turnovers per game, turnover rate, steals per game, steal rate, blocks per game, and block rate. They’re third in that last one, averaging a 16.7% clip. Northwestern’s unquestioned leader is senior Veronica Burton, who is third nationally in win shares and fourth in steals per game (after leading the country last year). The Wildcats already have one Big Ten win, albeit against 3-9 Wisconsin. If they can figure out some of their shooting struggles, they may very well be a team to keep an eye out for as the Big Ten season gets rolling.
Michigan State (7-6, No. 63 in HHS Rating)
Michigan State burst into the national consciousness this week after senior guard Nia Clouden dropped 50 points in a one-point double-overtime loss to FGCU, a squad receiving votes in the AP Poll. So far this season, the Spartans have been excellent at home and mediocre at best on the road. Part of that is explained by the fact their road/neutral schedule has been significantly harder than their home slate at Breslin, but they dropped a three-point road game to St. Francis Brooklyn, the 231st-ranked team in HHS. MSU has actually been pretty solid on the offensive side of the ball, coming in 15th nationally in assists per game, assisted shot rate, as well as 3PT%, and 18th in both FG% and FT%. Their issues have come on the defensive side of the ball, where they are 200th or worse (out of 356 qualified teams) in all four opponent shooting percentages (FG%, 2PT%, FT%, 3PT%).
Rutgers (7-7, No. 72 in HHS Rating)
Rutgers dropped six games in a row beginning in late November, including a 36-point blowout to Arizona. Although the Scarlet Knights are ranked 45th overall in HHS Defensive Rating, they have struggled to score against quality opponents. Eleven players have started at least one game as Rutgers tries to find the right combinations, but no one on the roster is scoring 10 points a game. Three-point shooting is a weakness, as are turnovers. Rutgers can rebound the ball, apply pressure and block shots, but without more scoring those might not be enough.
Purdue (9-4, No. 91 in HHS Rating)
The Boilermakers have some solid wins, including a one-point victory over a tough Georgia Tech squad, but also have two conference losses in December. Purdue has four players averaging in double-digits, but no standout individual performer. Their strengths are shooting (50.2% from inside the arc) and passing (they rank 17th in assists). But they struggle with turnovers, ranked 327th in the country, and aren’t a particularly strong rebounding team. The conference slate is favorable, though: Purdue plays Indiana twice but Maryland, Michigan, Iowa and Nebraska just once each.
Penn State (7-5, No. 115 in HHS Rating)
Makenna Marisa has been spectacular for the Nittany Lions in the early-going, averaging 21 points and 4.8 assists a game, but could use some assistance to keep Penn State afloat in the conference. The lack of a consistent inside game and a reliance on perimeter shooting means that the team doesn’t get to the foul line often (just 11% of its points come from the charity stripe). A 30-point loss to Indiana was telling: Penn State didn’t even attempt a free throw and made just two of its 16 three-point tries. The Nittany Lions’ shooting will win them some games, but if the shots aren’t falling, there’s not a lot of rebounding to rely on.
Minnesota (7-7, No. 121 in HHS Rating)
Minnesota can shoot the three. As a team, they make 37.9% of their shots from beyond the arc. Unfortunately, the Golden Gophers give up a fair number of long-distance baskets as well - Drake made nine while beating Minnesota by 14 points. The early schedule has been strong, which should help come March. Among those six losses are games against UConn, Oklahoma, North Carolina and Michigan. A three-point home loss to Nebraska may look better if the Huskers can keep winning, but Minnesota needs fewer turnovers and fouls to improve.
Illinois (5-7, No. 229 in HHS Rating)
Michigan State transfer Kendall Bostic has been a solid post presence for the Illini, averaging 11.4 rebounds a game. Even as she’s one of the defensive bright spots for Illinois, that hasn’t carried over to her offense. Her Usage Rate of 13.2% is the team’s lowest despite the fact that she plays the most minutes. This is a young team trying to find its offensive identity, and the schedule doesn’t provide much comfort: the first three games after Christmas are against Maryland, Iowa and Ohio State.
Wisconsin (3-9, No. 239 in HHS Rating)
There aren’t a ton of positives for first-year Head Coach Marisa Moseley so far, but the Badgers were competitive in a 93-81 loss to Michigan, in which UW hit 50% of its shots. Wisconsin generally doesn’t give up a ton of points, but can struggle to score consistently as well. The Badgers only face Indiana, Iowa, Maryland and Ohio State once this season, but they’ll need more offense beyond Julie Pospíšilovà to make much of a dent in the Big Ten.
That Louisville score was 70-48, not 78-40. Still a not close game but 22 points vs 38 is a lot.