How Oregon’s Dominant Offense Stacks Up to Other NCAA, WNBA Standouts
Spoiler alert: Quite well.
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On January 30, Oregon dominated Pac-12 rival Utah 90-63, making 80% of its shot attempts in the first quarter and finishing with four players in double figures. The Ducks hit 12 straight shots in the first half to put the game out of reach early, and head coach Kelly Graves said postgame, “When we’re clicking offensively, we’re the best offensive team in the country. The numbers bear that out.”
Indeed, the Ducks’ offense ranks first in the nation in several statistical categories, including points per 100 possessions, effective field goal percentage, points per scoring attempt, and assist-to-turnover ratio. It runs through three projected WNBA first-round picks in point guard Sabrina Ionescu, wing Satou Sabally, and forward Ruthy Hebard, who combine to average over 50 points, 25 rebounds, and 12 assists per game. But the Ducks also have an abundance of scoring beyond their “Big Three.” Graduate transfer Minyon Moore has recorded over 1,000 points and 500 assists in her career, and three other players—starter Erin Boley and reserves Taylor Chavez and Jaz Shelley—are each shooting better than 40% from 3-point range this season.
Looking at several of the Ducks’ top-ranking statistics, it becomes clear that Oregon has one of the nation’s best offenses not just this year, but in the past five seasons. Since the start of the 2015-16 season, there are only six teams that have averaged at least 120 points per 100 possessions:
This year’s Oregon team ranks third in points per 100 possessions, trailing only the 2015-16 UConn team that won its fourth straight national title behind seniors Breanna Stewart, Moriah Jefferson, and Morgan Tuck and the 2016-17 UConn team that was undefeated until Mississippi State and Morgan William beat them at the buzzer in the Final Four. And no team in the past five seasons, including that legendary 2015-16 UConn team, has matched Oregon’s performance this season across these four offensive categories.
How is Graves engineering this level of success? Part of it is recruiting top-end talent, but a lot of it is coaching and play-calling. Graves has been known to share video clips of his team’s shooting drills and offensive sets, giving both fans and other coaches a window into how he runs his team. He also gets inspiration from the professional ranks: High Post Hoops’ Howard Megdal recently reported that “the Oregon offense pattern[s] itself after much of the cutting edge work done at the WNBA level by the last two WNBA champions, Seattle and Washington.”
Those championship teams played some of the most efficient basketball the WNBA has ever seen behind positionless stars such as Seattle’s Breanna Stewart and Washington’s Elena Delle Donne and Emma Meesseman. That Storm team was an offensive juggernaut, going 26-8 in the regular season and not losing back-to-back games until the WNBA semifinals (which they still won, 3-2). In the Finals, the Storm swept the Mystics 3-0. Mystics coach Mike Thibault said after the series-clinching loss, “I think one of the things that Seattle has better than everybody else in the league right now is that they can always have a lineup on the floor with five scorers that put the fear of God in you. We have to get to that point, too.”
The Mystics did just that the following year by adding Meesseman to a strong group of returners from 2018. They set 13 WNBA records in 2019, mostly on the offensive end, en route to a 26-8 regular season and their first-ever WNBA title. Those records were a mix of old and new; some had stood since the 2000 Houston Comets, while others had been set by the 2018 Storm. The result was a WNBA championship and headlines that called their offense “unbreakable,” “historic,” and “the best ever.”
It makes sense that Graves would want to emulate the Mystics’ and Storm’s success, but it’s astounding how well his Oregon teams have pulled it off. Here is a sampling of Oregon’s offensive statistics this season alongside those of the Mystics and Storm during their championship seasons. The best number in each statistical category is highlighted, and asterisks denote WNBA records as of the end of that season.
Note: Table reflects regular-season games only. Oregon statistics are from Her Hoop Stats; WNBA statistics are from stats.wnba.com. WNBA records are from High Post Hoops’ Kurtis Zimmerman.
Through 27 games, Oregon is averaging nearly 86 points per game, just 3.5 points shy of the Mystics despite getting nine fewer possessions per game. That’s because the Ducks are extraordinarily efficient. Their 122.7 points per 100 possessions easily tops the Mystics’ 114.2 from what was considered a historic offensive season in the WNBA. Oregon also leads the way with a 57.8% effective field goal percentage, which adjusts for the added value of 3-pointers. Behind the arc, the Ducks are matching the Mystics’ record output (9.3 made threes per game) despite getting fewer possessions, and they are shooting even more accurately from 3-point range than the past two WNBA champions.
These data do not mean that the Ducks would necessarily beat the Mystics or the Storm, both of whom have WNBA MVPs and talented veterans on their teams. It is important to recognize that Oregon is putting up these numbers against college competition, albeit while playing one of the toughest schedules in the country. And while Oregon impressively handed Team USA just its second-ever loss against collegiate competition in November, that version of Team USA was missing several injured players and lacked the chemistry that the Mystics and Storm had in their championship seasons.
But the fact that I even need to issue such a disclaimer speaks to how special of a season Oregon is having. The Ducks have won 23 games by at least 10 points and 16 of those by at least 30, and they are dominating in what is widely considered the best conference in the country. The Ducks have also scored an otherworldly 150 points per 100 possessions three times: against Utah State in November, against California in January, and—despite the altitude—at Colorado in February. Most of the time, the Ducks’ offense seems unbreakable, making them look like clear national title favorites.
However, of the five other teams that have scored 120 points per 100 possessions in the past five seasons, just one—UConn in 2016—won a national title. Three others lost in the Final Four: 2017 UConn, 2018 UConn, and 2019 Oregon. And 2019 Oregon advanced to the Final Four at the expense of 2019 Mississippi State, in what was perhaps a historically tough Elite Eight match-up. This suggests that historically elite offense has not been necessary to win a national title in the past several years—but it does position a team pretty darn well for a Final Four berth.
All NCAA data are from Her Hoop Stats unless otherwise hyperlinked. 2019-20 data are for games through February 26. WNBA statistics are from stats.wnba.com, and WNBA records are from High Post Hoops’ Kurtis Zimmerman.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram.