How the Lynx and Liberty should process wild Game 1
Minnesota pulled off a historic comeback. Does New York need to make changes? How can the Lynx avoid falling behind early in Game 2?
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For many years to come, every time a team gets down by 15 points with only a few minutes to go, somebody will say, “Don’t walk away from the TV yet, remember that time the Lynx came back to beat the Liberty?”
If you were watching it, you’ll never forget Courtney Williams’s 4-point play, Napheesa Collier blocking Jonquel Jones, Breanna Stewart’s missed free throw and the game-winning fadeaway from Collier. Not to mention the energetic calls of Ryan Ruocco and Rebecca Lobo, who were as stunned as all of us during the waning moments. Games like that are the reason we love the sport.
But the series is not over. Now both teams have to figure out how they are going to parse through the madness that was Game 1 in order to formulate plans of attack for the remainder of the series. So let’s get into everything that each team should take away.
New York’s shot selection and distribution
When one team overcomes a huge deficit, do you say that the team in the lead melted down or the team that was behind pulled off a great comeback? Well, I think I know how the Liberty will be viewing it.
As they try to figure out what went haywire, the first place to look should be at the number of shot attempts that each of their starters took. While Sabrina Ionescu and Breanna Stewart shot 14-for-47, Jonquel Jones was 9-for-14 and made all five of her free throws. From the start of the game, there was no bigger mismatch than Jones against the Lynx’s small lineup, and yet it seemed the Liberty lost track of her as the game went along.
It was clear that Stewart was having a very difficult time with the swarming Collier and Alanna Smith in the paint, and the Lynx were able to bump her outside of the restricted area. Out of 17 2-point attempts, 14 of them came outside the restricted area, where Stewart makes 72.3% (91st percentile). The Liberty need to make sure she’s getting more/better inside looks because this year defenses have done their best against her when she’s shooting from mid-range or 3-point land. Stewart only made 28.2% of her shots from mid-range and 29.5% from deep.
Ionescu couldn’t buy a bucket from inside the 3-point arc, going 5-for-17 on 2-point shots.
While Ionescu has been hot as a shooter during the series, firing up 17 2-point shots when she only made 46.3% of her 2-point attempts (and 40.8% outside the restricted area) in the regular season would have been a dream scenario for the Lynx. Often trying to score off the dribble, Ionescu’s playmaking disappeared. In a game where her team made 34 field goals, their guard who averages 6.2 assists per game only picked up three assists. During the regular season the Liberty went 11-2 when Ionescu had eight assists or more. When she’s at her passing best, the ball often finds its way back to her as she moves without the ball.
The Lynx have the Defensive Player of the Year largely guarding Stewart and the best perimeter defense in the league trying to force Ionescu away from open threes. They have built-in answers for the things the Liberty do well. They do not have a 6-foot-6 player who can shut down Jones consistently under the basket. This year Jones was in the 97th percentile within five feet of the basket, 98th percentile between 5-10 feet away, and 85th percentile from 3-point range. Forcing the Lynx to guard her in every part of the floor seems like a better strategy than 47 shots from Stewart/Ionescu given that it’s New York’s biggest potential mismatch.
The Liberty also have to get other players involved. Betnijah Laney-Hamilton went 2-for-7 in 26 minutes and the entire bench went 3-for-8.
Minnesota’s “hope” ball, rebounding, hunting
If the Lynx think that players of Stewart and Ionescu’s caliber are going to shoot 14-for-47 in every game of the series and let them dance to a ring, they are in for a rude awakening in Game 2. While both players have been more inconsistent as shooters than the Liberty would like, Cheryl Reeve’s team can’t hope that two of the three “super” players are going to struggle in every game.
They also can’t hope that the Liberty shoot 36.8% from 2-point range again or that Stewart misses a last-second free throw or point-blank layup or that they can get behind 32-19 in the first quarter or 81-66 in the fourth quarter and fight their way back.
Put more simply: The Lynx had a lot of things go their way, and if they play the same way again, they very, very likely won’t win.
The main issue was rebounding. There are sacrifices that come with playing a smaller lineup, and the Lynx overcame ranking 10th in rebound percentage this year because of their remarkable defensive play and shooting. But being a bad rebounding team in the regular season means still getting 74.2% of potential defensive rebounds, not 61.5% as they did in Game 1.
That won’t be easy with Stewart and Jones in the opposing front court, but they have to find a way. One of Reeve’s answers was to use Myisha Hines-Allen for 14 minutes. It might be worth considering putting second-year center Dorka Juhász in the mix. The Lynx were on the positive side (50.3%) of the total rebound battle this year when Juhasz was on the floor this year and out-rebounded (48.8%) with her on the bench (per Basketball Reference).
One thing the Lynx must repeat is their excellent shooting performance, but they need more 3-point attempts. Even with an extra overtime period, they only took 22 3-point attempts. In the regular season they averaged 25.0 per game. With Collier bound to attract so much attention, they will need more than 2-for-5 from deep from Smith and Bridget Carleton.
Something the Lynx can continue to lean heavily on is their point guards scoring. Courtney Williams and Natisha Hiedeman combined to score 33 points on 13-for-25 from the field, and eight of those buckets were in the paint. Both players are lightning off the dribble, which can cause problems for Ionescu and Courtney Vandersloot. Creating isolated chances for them to drive (or create midrange off-the-dribble shots for Williams) could be a key to sustaining the high shooting percentage.
Bounce-back versus momentum
The Liberty’s collapse certainly won’t quiet any of the folks who have wondered aloud about their chemistry and leadership. In the fourth quarter, the super teamers seemed to be looking around for somebody else to save them as the Lynx’s deeply connected group banded together in the biggest moments.
Of course, that narrative can change very quickly on Sunday. Sandy Brondello’s team has already had a gut-check moment in this postseason when they lost in Las Vegas and then immediately bounced back on the road to close out the Aces in the semifinals. How they respond to the crushing Game 1 loss will give us a pretty strong indication of how this series is going to go.
How the Lynx build upon the win will also tell us a lot about them. They were outplayed for the majority of Game 1 and needed a miraculous comeback to take a 1-0 lead in the series. Are they really strong enough? Is it enough in a five-game series to have a number of good contributors around a superstar against a team with three superstars? Will they hit an emotional wall after closing out Connecticut and winning that wacky Game 1 within two days?
The opening night of this series gave the vibe that this one could be a back-and-forth classic, but the Lynx winning on Sunday would send them home to Minneapolis with two shots at closing out New York. In a five-gamer, it gets late early. It will be on the Liberty’s biggest stars to make sure that doesn’t happen.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
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I can’t help thinking that when a team collapses late so dramatically, it’s on the players, sure, but it’s also on the coach. I felt that way when the Sky fell apart against the Sun in 2022. The coach needs to do something, say something, make some kind of adjustment whatever that may be, to help get the players back on track. And I suspect overall that Cheryl Reeve is just a better coach than Sandy Brondello.
Great analysis Matthew.