Is A'ja Wilson en route to the greatest single season ever?

The Aces' superstar has put her name amongst the best ever through the first half of the 2024 season

Photo courtesy Chris Poss

Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. Did you know that Angel Reese set the WNBA record with her 13th straight double-double on Sunday and her 14th overall this season? Only Sylvia Fowles has had more double-doubles in a season for the Sky.

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Personally I would have given A’ja Wilson a signature shoe before this year but Nike certainly picked the right season to go all-in on A’ja. Over the first half of this season she has carried the Aces into the thick of the playoff race and put together numbers that are rarely rivaled throughout WNBA history.

ESPN’s Alexa Philippou tweeted out that Wilson’s 540 points are the most ever in a 20-game span. To add to that factoid, Wilson is currently averaging 27.0 points per game, which would be the highest mark ever if she can maintain it. The only other player who has cleared 25 points per game is Diana Taurasi in 2006.

Her scoring totals are nothing short of astonishing, but the fact that she’s done it efficiently makes it even more impressive. Out of 33 players who take at least 10 shots per game (minimum 10 games played), Wilson ranks fifth in points per shot attempt and in field-goal percentage. Making her all the more difficult to slow down is the fact Wilson makes 85.4% of her free-throw attempts and has made it to the line a league-leading 144 times.

So is Wilson on pace to have the best season in history? By some metrics, the answer is yes.

Last year Wilson and Breanna Stewart both finished with 9.5 win shares, the most ever in a single season. It makes sense that their win share number would be higher considering teams played 40 regular season games, four more than any other previous season in league history. To level the playing field we should look at players through a per-40-minute basis rather than their total. Here’s how Wilson’s 2024 shakes out compared to the best ever in win shares per 40 minutes:

Win shares is just one way to look at Wilson’s 2024 season. By PER (player efficiency rating), which estimates a player’s per-minute value from box score stats, Wilson’s 2024 is the No. 1 season ever among players with at least 25 minutes per game.

The Aces have multiple stars but they have still heavily leaned on Wilson. Her usage percentage is on track to be the 10th highest (32.2%) in history.

By the way, the two-time champ and two-time MVP is also third this season in defensive rebound percentage (29.0%) and she’s on track to average the most blocks in a season by any player since 2016. She's also on pace to be the second player in league history to finish among the league's top two in PPG, RPG, and BPG (Lauren Jackson in 2007 is the other). 

OK one more: Wilson has the ninth best turnover percentage (6.8%) in history among 25+ minute players.

Conclusion: Right now Wilson’s 2024 season isn’t definitively the best ever but it’s in the rarest of air in WNBA history.

Should the Aces be considered favorites now that Chelsea Gray is back?

Chelsea Gray doesn’t have any gaudy stats since returning on June 21 but the Aces are 7-1 in that span. She’s averaging 7.8 points per game on 40.4% shooting with 4.4 assists per game. However, you can see the shades of what she brings to the table in everyone else’s play around her. Since she returned, Kelsey Plum is shooting 50.6% from the field with 20.7 points per game, and Jackie Young has 18.2 points per game on 48.7% shooting. Before Gray came back from injury, Plum was only shooting 38.7% and Young 42.2%.

Some of that might be regression to the mean because both players are terrific scorers but it hardly seems like a coincidence that both Plum and Young can work off the ball with their floor general back. Gray is averaging 7.7 assists per 40 minutes (93rd percentile).

If Gray’s performance in the second half of the season reflects 2023, where she was in the 99th percentile in terms of assists per 40 minutes and 86th in effective field-goal percentage, then the rest of the WNBA should be worried. Gray’s presence in the lineup not only gives Plum and Young the playmaker they need, it also reduces the need for 37-year-old Alysha Clark to play huge minutes. Instead, she can return to her usual spot as a quality role player. Since Gray returned, Clark has only averaged 17.8 minutes per game, near her career average of 23.3 per game. Before Gray came back, the Aces needed her for 30.1 minutes per game.

Add that with Tiffany Hayes giving them points off the bench at 54.1% on 2-point shots and you have a much more complete Aces squad. That doesn’t mean they are flawless. While Vegas ranks No. 1 in points per game, they are only eighth in points allowed per game. In particular they are allowing the highest percentage on 3-point shots in the W. If they don’t turn that around it could be problematic if they face 3-point shooting teams like New York or Minnesota.

Still, they should be considered right in the mix with the heavy hitters despite being a few games behind.

Sorry, Angel

I’m an incredible reverse jinxer. Two weeks ago I wrote that Jackie Young wasn’t quite playing the same as 2023 and then she immediately dropped 30 points twice in the following week. Last week I wrote about Angel Reese’s struggles with efficiency and she turned around and put together 56 points over the last three games on 21-for-40 shooting (52.5%), including hitting two threes and making 12-of-16 at the free-throw line. After Sunday’s game against Seattle she was making the second lowest percentage on shots in the restricted area (49.7% per HHS data) of anyone in the WNBA with more than 10 attempts per game (37 players).

If that improves to even somewhere near average she is going to be an absolute force. Reese has 165 shots right under the basket, most in the WNBA. A few more kick-outs and learning how to avoid getting blocked as often could make a world of difference.

As Reese and Caitlin Clark, who registered a triple double in a huge win over the New York Liberty, continue to dominate the headlines, Rickea Jackson is quietly putting together an extremely solid rookie season. She scored 22 points against Phoenix on Sunday and overall she’s averaging 10.9 points per game on a solid 45.3% from the field and 36.0% from 3-point land. She would be even more outstanding if she got rid of some of the deep mid-range stuff, where she’s only 4-for-23 between 15-feet out and the 3-point line. Jackson has Napheesa Collier type vibes as an all-around player with good size and athleticism who can get to productive scoring areas. Once the Sparks put together better options around her, she could take big leaps forward quickly.

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