Jordin Canada: Offseason Opportunities
Discussing which teams are an offseason fit for Jordin Canada
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. Be sure to check out the most recent update to the Bracketology section of the Her Hoop Stats website, where resident bracketologist Megan Gauer provided her latest full 68-team bracket.
Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?
Entering the 2023 season, the Los Angeles Sparks had high aspirations. They signed Azurá Stevens and Stephanie Talbot, acquired Dearica Hamby and Jasmine Thomas in separate trades, and re-signed Nneka Ogwumike, Chiney Ogwumike, Lexie Brown, and Jordin Canada. Ultimately, injuries adversely affected the Sparks’ season, and they missed the playoffs for the third straight year.
Jordin Canada’s production, however, was one of Los Angeles’ bright spots. One of the league’s premier facilitators, Canada finished the season top 10 in assists. Also one of the W’s best defenders, she led the league in steals and made the WNBA All-Defensive First Team. Overseas, Canada is currently playing in Australia for the WNBL’s Melbourne Boomers. She has looked terrific in action, averaging 17.3 points and 8.7 assists.
Canada is an unrestricted free agent this offseason, so let’s dive into which teams could be a good fit.
Los Angeles Sparks
The Sparks are a no-brainer. Los Angeles can actually nip 99.9% of the possibility of Canada leaving (and most of this article) in the bud by extending the core qualifying offer to her. This is the official process of “coring” an unrestricted free agent and maintaining exclusive negotiating rights. The offer would be for one year at the supermax ($241,984 in 2024), but Canada can negotiate for a different deal, which most likely would be for two years due to the potential CBA opt-out in 2025. Coring Canada is a likely occurrence this offseason, as it allows Los Angeles to keep her unless she requests a trade. However, if Canada elects to accept the offer, the $241,984 will eat into a sizable portion of Los Angeles’ cap space. This could affect their ability to make other moves.
Nonetheless, Canada is LA through and through. Born in Los Angeles, Canada played high school basketball at Windward School for former Mercury head coach Vanessa Nygaard. If that isn’t enough, Canada went on to star for the UCLA Bruins, starting in 131 out of her 137 games. Re-signing with the Sparks would allow Canada to continue playing for her hometown team and be well-paid doing so. She re-signed with the Sparks this past offseason on a training camp deal, which converts to one year at the player’s applicable minimum ($74,305 for Canada), but Canada clearly played well enough to demand a significant raise.
In keeping Canada, the Sparks could then look to bolster their roster by re-signing longtime star Nneka Ogwumike. Ogwumike cannot be cored, as she already played for two seasons under the core designation. Although Ogwumike will likely re-sign, the Sparks cannot rest on their laurels. There are also other teams with cap space looking to load up even more, like Las Vegas (think of a possible reunion with Chelsea Gray), New York (who is looking to regroup after a Finals loss), Washington (who is looking to return to title contention), and more. Given Canada’s LA roots, it’s possible that the Sparks may be able to keep Canada without needing to core her, something that financially could help keep both players.
Atlanta Dream
The Dream finished 19-21 last season, good for fifth in the standings, and were swept by the Dallas Wings in the first round. Now looking ahead to 2024, the primary focus for the Dream should be refining the roster to have a clear direction.
Last year, they acquired Allisha Gray and Danielle Robinson through trades and re-signed veteran rebounder Monique Billings (a UCLA teammate of Jordin Canada). However, the Dream also amassed a crew of young talent: using their first-round draft picks to select Haley Jones and Laeticia Amihere, claiming former Aces member Iliana Rupert on waivers, while already having Aari McDonald and Naz Hillmon under contract from previous drafts. So, there was a bit of a clash. Do they lead with veteran presence or through their youth? Another clash involved their primary facilitator. In-game, it wasn’t particularly clear who was the main playmaker: Robinson, McDonald, Jones, Howard or even Gray? Tenth in assists per game in 2023, the Dream’s playmaking at times seemed as if done by committee.
If the Sparks do not core Canada and Atlanta acquires her, the franchise gets its primary facilitator. Canada is someone who could be a good mentor to Aari McDonald and Haley Jones as they continue to develop. McDonald also plays in the WNBL for the Perth Lynx, so there is the common ground of playing in Australia. Canada also plays with Hillmon for the Boomers. Melbourne likes to run pick-and-rolls with Canada and Hillmon or Canada and Penina Davidson, and it has connected for key baskets. A dual threat to pass or score in the pick-and-roll, Canada finds ways to generate offense.
With Canada on the floor, the option would be there to integrate bigs such as Hillmon, Amihere, and Rupert, who did not have a sizable role in the Dream’s offense. Atlanta’s starting center Cheyenne Parker shot 60% last season on shots closer than five feet, but that percentage quickly plummeted to 34% on shots between five and nine feet from the basket. Canada could be the difference in getting Parker more of those higher percentage shots. Efficiency concerns don’t stop at Parker and the bigs. Atlanta’s leading scorer Rhyne Howard averaged 17.5 points per game but shot 38.5% from the floor, with 47% of her made shots being unassisted.
As the Dream have a cache of players on rookie-scale deals, they have the cap space to be big spenders. So why not go big on a player that could fit their needs? If signed, Canada would be the only player on the roster with championship experience, something that could be a key factor in propelling the Dream to deeper playoff runs.
New York Liberty
Two words: guard defense.
The New York Liberty went on a run that ultimately saw them lose in the 2023 WNBA Finals to the Las Vegas Aces. The superteam had moments last season where they looked phenomenal and other times more lackluster. One factor was the lack of time they had to gel due to injuries in the offseason to Jonquel Jones and Courtney Vandersloot. But an albatross that always lingered was defense at the guard spot. This was on display in the Finals series against Las Vegas. When Liberty head coach Sandy Brondello made adjustments, the Aces seemed to have a counter. In the exit interviews, general manager Jonathan Kolb alluded to bolstering their guard defense off the bench.
If the Liberty continue in that direction, it still leaves questions regarding the defense of their starting guards.
Currently, New York is looking at $703,803 in cap space. Although taking a discount will be required, most of that money will likely be earmarked towards keeping Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones. In the exit interviews, Kolb confirmed that New York will core Stewart, allowing Liberty fans to sleep well at night. Jones, however, cannot be cored as she recently finished two years under the core designation from the Connecticut Sun, and teams are limited to just one core player anyway.
Unless Canada is willing to take a steep discount, the only viable alternative is a sign-and-trade involving one of the Liberty’s guards. In bringing Canada on board, New York gains an All-Defensive guard, capable of staying with defenders and forcing turnovers that create fast-break opportunities. With players like Stewart, Jones, Betnijah Laney, and Kayla Thornton, New York has the makings of a defensive juggernaut.
Offensively, the New York Liberty were a team that loved to implement screens, going with combinations of simple pick-and-rolls, staggers, etc. This is something right in Canada’s wheelhouse. Therefore, with Canada, New York improves their guard defense and gets a player who is elite in screen action. An added wrinkle to Canada’s game is her improved 3-point shot, which would bode well in New York, who set a league record for 3-pointers made per game this past season. This move also reunites Canada with Breanna Stewart, having last played together during their run in Seattle that included two WNBA titles.
If the Sparks core Canada, yet either she or the Liberty are persistent in wanting a deal done, Los Angeles has leverage. The Sparks could look to play a bit of hardball to try and acquire something else other than just either Ionescu or Vandersloot. So what else is on the table in a move for Canada? The Liberty have a first-round pick in 2024, 2025 (in which they can swap with Phoenix’s first-rounder) and 2026. They will most likely have the reserved rights to Marine Johannès and Han Xu. On top of that, New York possesses the draft rights to Raquel Carrera, Leonie Fiebich, Marine Fauthoux, and Okako Adika. Given that the Sparks have two first-round picks in 2024, their own first-round picks in 2025 and 2026, as well as the draft rights to the Sydney Flames’ Shaneice Swain, a move involving Canada could make Los Angeles asset-rich for the next few years. This is something the Sparks need to consider given the expiring deals of Dearica Hamby, Azurá Stevens, and Lexie Brown, and the upcoming reality of a post-Nneka Ogwumike Sparks.
But, New York giving up Ionescu or Vandersloot along with extra assets is perhaps a line that Kolb is not willing to cross.
Minnesota Lynx
The Lynx had a relatively successful 2023 campaign considering how it started. Minnesota lost their first six games of the season, making some wonder if this would be another year for the Lynx in the lottery. The Lynx were able to right the ship and finished as the sixth seed for the playoffs where they lost to the Connecticut Sun 2-1 in the first round.
During the season, Minnesota extended Kayla McBride’s deal, which keeps her as a member of the organization through 2025. Upcoming free agent Aerial Powers, on the other hand, made it clear that she will join a new team this offseason. This was not particularly surprising, given that Powers saw a drastic dip in her minutes. She was a key part of their up-and-down 2022 season, tied with Sylvia Fowles for the team lead in points per game.
Nonetheless, the Lynx have many things to look forward to in 2024:
Napheesa Collier and McBride on the books through 2025
All-WNBA Rookie Team members Diamond Miller and Dorka Juhász under rookie-scale deals
Tiffany Mitchell and Jessica Shepard under contract for one more year
The seventh pick in the 2024 WNBA Draft (which is projected to be a deep draft class)
The draft rights to France’s Maïa Hirsch, the 12th pick in the 2023 WNBA Draft
$641,942 in cap space this offseason, which gives the Lynx room for two regular maximum spots ($208,219)
Something that Minnesota currently does not have on the books is a point guard. In acquiring Canada, the Lynx would gain one of the premier point guards in the W. Miller and Juhász excelled in their rookie seasons and are primed for a bigger 2024. Collier is also looking to continue her All-WNBA level performance. Canada could be the piece that unlocks another level for the Lynx in 2024.
Given that Minnesota would also have cap space after bringing Canada to Minneapolis, they could look to bring on other players like Bec Allen for wing defense, Kalani Brown for interior presence, or Alanna Smith for floor spacing and shot blocking. Canada could be a key cog in Minnesota building their most competitive team in some time.
Washington Mystics
The Washington Mystics had no business being a seventh seed in the 2023 playoffs. This was a team that should have been no lower than fourth, but injuries reared their ugly heads. While Washington was swept in its first-round matchup against New York, the Mystics gave the Liberty a fight. If they finished healthy and with a higher seed, a semifinals matchup against New York or Las Vegas could have been one for the ages.
Looking into 2024, something glaringly obvious is Natasha Cloud’s status as an unrestricted free agent. Washington does have the ability to core her, but they can also core Elena Delle Donne. Although injuries have plagued Delle Donne for the past few seasons, when healthy she is arguably still a top-five player in the league. Delle Donne is a two-time MVP and played a key role in the Mystics securing their first-ever championship. That isn’t to say Cloud isn’t valuable to Washington as well. Look no further than Game 2 against the Liberty in this past year’s semifinals: 33 points, six rebounds, nine assists, four steals. Cloud almost single-handedly forced a decisive Game 3 in Washington.
But what if Washington wants to get slightly younger while not suffering a drop-off in production?
Cloud will be 32 next season, and Delle Donne will be 34, whereas Canada will turn 29. Defensively, Canada and Cloud are perhaps the best two at the point guard position. Both are top-tier playmakers in this league. Although Cloud has historically been the better 3-point shooter, Canada shot better in 2023 (33.3% versus Cloud’s 29.8%). Canada is one of, if not the fastest guard in the W. Cloud has the size advantage: 5-foot-10 to Canada’s 5-foot-6.
The Mystics have $639,809 in cap space, which is enough for two max spots. Washington also has:
Ariel Atkins, Brittney Sykes, Myisha Hines-Allen, Shakira Austin, Shatori Walker-Kimbrough and Queen Egbo under contract next season
The sixth overall pick in the 2024 WNBA Draft
The ability to reserve Li Meng (prioritization is not an issue as she has less than two years of W experience)
Acquiring Canada could be the first major move for Washington in looking to revamp ahead of 2024.
The Sparks and Jordin Canada have some decisions to make this offseason. For the Sparks, how should they approach trying to retain Canada? For Canada, where would she like to play for the foreseeable future? Until then, stay tuned!
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.