The Weekly Roundup: The Music City Miracle, Part II
From 2-8 to SEC tournament champions, breaking down Kentucky’s remarkable turnaround
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Basketball in March is awesome. This is a newsletter dedicated to women’s basketball, so I know that statement is shamelessly preaching to the choir. But I can think of no other way to encapsulate the drama, upsets, buzzer-beaters, and excitement that took place during last week’s conference tournaments. There’s Miami’s Cinderella run to the ACC championship that included Destiny Harden’s last-second shot to knock off conference No. 2 seed Louisville. How about Jennifer Coleman’s buzzer-beating three-pointer that propelled Patriot League No. 8 seed Navy over top-seeded Holy Cross? And let’s also not forget the overtime classic between Virginia Tech and North Carolina in the ACC quarterfinals. If this is an early indication of what’s to come during the NCAA tournament, fans are in for a real treat.
While there was simply no way to include every memorable moment from last week in the paragraph above, you may have noticed one glaring omission: Kentucky. Let’s take a closer look at the Wildcats’ turnaround that culminated in Part II of the Music City Miracle.
Kentucky’s Stunning 180
The Kentucky Wildcats were picked 13th in the preseason AP poll. Coaches predicted they would finish fifth (out of 14) in the notoriously difficult SEC. On February 11, the Wildcats’ overall record stood at 9-11. Their conference record was 2-8, ahead of only Auburn in the SEC standings. To say they had fallen short of expectations would be an understatement. Never mind making some noise in the NCAA tournament, most observers had written off their chances of qualifying for the Big Dance altogether.
Fast forward 23 days, and the Wildcats had rattled off 10 straight wins, including Sunday’s heart-stopping triumph in the SEC championship game over the country’s best team, South Carolina. Understanding this shocking turnaround is about as easy as wrapping one’s head around the theory of relativity. While no one would ever mistake me for a physicist, here are a few statistics that shed some light on how the Wildcats transformed from a team in the SEC basement to one that raised the SEC tournament trophy for the first time in 40 years.
Oddly enough, this tale of redemption doesn’t start with Rhyne Howard. The projected top-2 pick in this spring’s WNBA draft averaged roughly the same number of points during the Wildcats’ 1-8 stretch (21.2) as during their current 10-game winning streak (21.0). Granted, her offensive efficiency has improved throughout Kentucky’s current run. She’s managed her scoring output over the last 10 games on 3.4 fewer field goal attempts than during Kentucky’s 1-8 skid, primarily the result of her blistering 46% three-point percentage since February 13. However, this story’s protagonist is Howard’s supporting cast.
The Wildcats’ roster excluding Rhyne Howard has collectively averaged 19 more points per game during Kentucky’s 10-game winning streak than during its freefall in January and early February. It’s not as though Kentucky benefitted from a significantly easier schedule over the past three weeks; the Wildcats faced an opponent with a Her Hoop Stats rating in the top 25 four times during this span. That’s the same number they faced while compiling a 1-8 record from January 9 through February 10. So, what’s the key to Kentucky’s offensive renaissance? The answer is three-fold: taking better care of the ball, controlling the offensive glass, and knocking down shots at a higher clip.
Kentucky’s ability to generate more offensive opportunities by limiting turnovers is largely thanks to the guard duo of freshman Jada Walker and senior Jazmine Massengill. From January 9 through February 10, Kentucky averaged 15.1 turnovers per game and a dismal 0.48 assist-to-turnover ratio. Since then, the Wildcats have committed only 10.0 miscues per outing and posted a stellar 1.48 assist-to-turnover ratio. Walker has averaged just 1.3 turnovers per contest over the Wildcats’ last 10 games compared to 3.7 turnovers per meeting in the nine games before that. Massengill has dished out 6.4 dimes per outing since February 13, resulting in an otherworldly assist-to-turnover ratio of 4.92 during the streak.
Then there’s Dre’una Edwards, a microcosm of Kentucky’s mind-boggling transformation. Managing just 8.6 points per game and a 36% field goal percentage in the January 9-February 10 timespan, Edwards has since exploded to average 20.5 points per contest to go along with an efficient 55% field goal percentage. The SEC title game hero has also exerted her will on the glass, snatching 2.4 more offensive boards per outing during Kentucky’s 10-0 stretch. Over the past three weeks, Kentucky has seen vast improvements in its offensive rebounding and field goal percentage - Dre’una Edwards is a major reason why.
Kentucky is creating more scoring chances by reducing turnovers and grabbing more offensive rebounds. The Wildcats are converting such opportunities more efficiently. That’s a potent combination - one that resulted in the program’s first SEC tournament championship in 40 years, toppled the country’s top team, and will be a nightmare for any NCAA tournament opponent.
Power Six performance of the week: Shakira Austin, Ole Miss
She recently earned First Team All-SEC honors for the second consecutive year. She is a finalist for the Lisa Leslie Award,which is bestowed upon the nation’s best center. So entering last Friday’s quarterfinal contest versus Florida, expectations were high that Shakira Austin would deliver a special performance. The Ole Miss center didn’t disappoint and validated the aforementioned accolades with a phenomenal 27-point, 13-rebound, six-block, and four-assist effort in the Rebels’ 70-60 win over the Gators. She became just the fourth player all season to record at least 25 points, 10 rebounds, and five blocks in a game. Aliyah Boston and A’ja Wilson are the only other SEC players since the 2009-10 season to post such numbers during a conference game.
In a recent interview with The Next, Austin described the goals she set for herself after transferring to Ole Miss from Maryland in 2020: “I definitely came to Ole Miss with some goals. I just wanted to turn this program around. Just find value in myself and try to figure out if I would be able to do it. I had belief in myself that I could. This was the biggest bet on myself, coming here and changing Ole Miss.”
Mission accomplished. The Rebels compiled a 7-23 record in the season prior to Austin’s arrival. They are 23-8 this season, finished as a top-four seed during the SEC regular season, and advanced to the program’s first conference semifinal in 29 years. Austin’s top-five conference ranking in rebounds, blocks, and win shares has played a critical role in her team’s success.
Mid-Major performance of the week: Akila Smith, Longwood
It was a pretty good week for Longwood senior forward Akila Smith. Last Monday, she was named the Big South Conference’s Player of the Year. I’m guessing that selection had something to do with her 17.4 points per game, 8.0 rebounds per contest, and her Big South-leading 2.9 blocks per game (eighth in the nation). Then on Sunday afternoon, her team captured the Big South tournament championship, clinching the program’s first appearance in the Big Dance. Along the way, Smith posted a monster 28-point, 19-rebound double-double in the Lancers’ Big South quarterfinal win over a gritty Hampton University squad. A Performance of the Week-worthy outing, Smith was just one rebound shy of joining Baylor’s NaLyssa Smith as the only player this season to post a 25-point, 20-rebound stat line. Despite this, Longwood coach Rebecca Tillett left prospective NCAA tournament foes with a harrowing thought.
"With Akila, she's always full of another surprise and another level," Tillett said. "I think we're just seeing that. I still don't think we've gotten all the way to where Akila can go and what she can do for the program."
Adam’s Top 25
Here’s my top 25, which as always is based on the criterion of who would currently win in a hypothetical neutral-court matchup.
Her Hoop Stats content in case you missed it
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On the latest episode of Unplugged, Daniel Mataya joined host Megan Gauer to break down the Big East quarterfinals and semifinals and preview the championship game between Villanova and UConn.
In his weekly ACC recap, James Hyman offered his predictions for the conference tournament.
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Trivia question of the week
Caitlin Clark currently leads the country in scoring and assists per game. Who is the last Big Ten player to lead the country in scoring? Who is the most recent Big Ten player to lead the nation in assists per game?
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.