Kierstan Bell is Just Scratching the Surface of Her Potential
Kierstan Bell had a successful first season with the Ohio State Buckeyes. As good as she's been, she's only scratching the surface of her potential as a player.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?
By Mike Bossetti
Kierstan Bell came to Ohio State with great expectations. The player nicknamed “SheBron” was the nation’s eighth-ranked prospect and the school’s highest-ranked recruit since three-time Big Ten player of the year, Kelsey Mitchell. Bell was brought in as the leader of a class that was supposed to “revitalize” an Ohio State program that just experienced its first losing season since 2001-2002.
In addition to being one of the most hyped prospects in recent memory, Bell was named a starter to begin the year. And with only four players returning from last year’s team, the Buckeyes needed her to be a key piece of the offense. That’s incredible pressure for a teenager.
After a highly impressive first season, it’s hard to argue Bell didn’t live up to the hype. In her first season at Ohio State, she finished top-five on the team in every significant statistical category (2nd in points, 3rd in rebounds, 4th in assists, 2nd in steals, and 4th in blocks, per game) and was named to the Big Ten All-Freshman team, as well as, honorable mention All-Big Ten. However, despite her success so far, Bell is just scratching the surface of her potential as a player.
Bell’s offensive game
Good or bad, Bell’s presence is always felt. She currently has a usage rate of 30.4%, the highest figure on the team by a significant margin. The gap between her usage and the team’s second-highest player, Rebeka Mikulasikova, is greater than the difference between the Mikulasikova and the team’s lowest-usage player, Braxtin Miller (min 10 minutes per game).
Her efficiency in those possessions is nearly identical to the team’s as a whole. Her Points Per Scoring attempt is 1.00. The team’s PPSA is 1.04. She’s averaging 0.84 points per play. The team is averaging 0.84.
Average should not be mistaken for bad. In fact, there’s tremendous value to soaking up a large number of possessions with team-average efficiency. Bell’s scoring lightens everyone else’s workload, allowing them to focus on more valuable shots.
At the peak of her powers, Bell can overwhelm opponents. The pressure she puts on a defense feels like a violent river crashing into a crumbling barricade. In spurts, you can see the barricade completely disintegrate. Against Illinois, she helped propel the Buckeyes on a 19-0 run when she ripped off nine straight points by herself.
But in between those incredible runs are too many moments of average, too many moments of trying to take over the game single-handedly, and far too many moments of head-scratching decisions.
Bell’s average efficiency is a net positive. However, given her tremendous skillset, it’s hard not to want more from her. She’s bigger, more athletic, and more skilled than nearly everyone else she faces. Nothing about her game should be average.
Shot selection has been a problem. When engaged, she can seemingly get to the rim whenever she wants. Unfortunately, for long stretches, it feels like she has little desire to do so. She attempted just 30 free throws during the regular season, an unacceptable number for someone of her abilities. She’s quick to settle for jumpshots, even against opponents where she has a clear advantage. Her shot profile includes a bevy of stepbacks, pullups, and fadeaways.
At times, Bell looks like she’s playing with a 10-second shot clock. She’s always pressing to make a play, sometimes disregarding if it’s the right play. She’s too eager to take over the game, rather than letting it come to her.
She’s consistently overeager, although it rarely reads as selfish. She’s just a young player who’s trying to do everything all at once. Despite her aptitude for shooting, Bell is an extremely willing passer. She averages a somewhat pedestrian 1.5 assists per game. However, that number includes very few “system assists,” and nearly every dime she compiles feels like a true value-added pass. She pushes in transition, loves no-look passes, and can put the ball in a shoebox when necessary.
Similar to her scoring, Bell’s abilities as a passer supersede her production at this time. The accuracy, willingness, and instincts are all there. With more time and more experience, the assists will be too.
Bell’s impact defensively
As talented as Bell is offensively, she’s an even more impressive defensive player at the moment. She has all the physical tools, has an impressive basketball IQ, and gives incredible effort. Her tremendous instincts allow her to be not only a piece of a machine but an active defensive playmaker. She leads the team in Steal Percentage and is third in Block Percentage. She patrols the weak side like Ed Reed at safety. She’s always defending the rim, and no crosscourt pass is safe when she’s lurking.
She sometimes reads the play before the offense. On the above play, she makes her cut before the offensive player begins their pass. You can see it’s an easy two points for Ohio State before the ball is released.
As an individual defender on the perimeter, Bell still has room to grow. She has trouble navigating off-ball screens, falls for perimeter pump fakes, and can lose her assignment during defensive rotations. Her flaws are understandable. She played in the post throughout her high school career, and for the first time this season, is being asked to spend time consistently on the perimeter. And yet, despite that transition, she’s never the weakest link and is rarely targeted.
A highly touted recruit with talent oozing out her seams, it would be easy for Bell to shrug defense off as a chore, a necessary evil required to get the ball back offensively. Instead, she took a different approach. “We’re not really worried about the score,” Bell said. “We’re worried about playing defense and holding them accountable for their points.”
Her drive to be great
Talent and skillset are essential, but oftentimes it’s mentality that determines the ultimate fate of a player. Bell’s mentality is akin to an on-edge guard-dog. She has a fiery personality that, at times, needs to be tempered. She’s received multiple technical fouls so far this season and is not afraid to mix it up with opponents or let the officials know her opinion. Earlier this season, she received a technical for instructing an official to watch a replay on the jumbotron.
But as Georgetown legend John Thompson once said, “It’s easier to calm down a fool than resurrect a dead man.” And the fire that sometimes burns too bright is what makes Bell so special. You can see the joy on her face when she celebrates a teammate’s basket and the genuine pride she feels in other’s success. Her energy, effort level, and desire to win are not only vital to her game but are infectious to the entire team.
She’ll need to use that fire and passion to take her game to the next level. “She’s got a lot of talent. She’s got a really bright future,” Head Coach Kevin McGuff said. “She loves to play the game. That’s really what I like about her. When you watch her out there, she plays really, really hard. So, she’s just got to make sure she continues to get better in our system.”
Often times, it feels as if she is about to turn the corner, like she’s on the brink of turning from good to great. However, the difference between good and great is monumentally large, and even players with Bell’s skill set and work ethic have no guarantees of making the jump.
But Bell clearly expects greatness from herself. When asked if it was overwhelming to hear that she helped instigate a 19-0 Buckeye run, “No. Not really,” she responded while flashing a wry smile.
All stats are from Her Hoop Stats and are updated as of games played on Tuesday, March 3rd.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?