Liz Cambage: Offseason Opportunities
Looking at Liz Cambage's options for 2022 WNBA Free Agency
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Liz Cambage is one of the WNBA’s most notable players. At a towering 6’8”, with long arms and high motor, players like Liz do not come around every day. Both the league and her team, the Las Vegas Aces, are aware of that fact. They are also aware that she will now officially be an unrestricted free agent heading into the offseason.
So how did we get here?
In the 2020-2021 offseason, the Aces retained Cambage’s services by extending what is known as the core qualifying offer. This offer is exceptionally beneficial for a franchise, as it allows a team to retain the exclusive rights to what would be an unrestricted free agent. Per our WNBA CBA FAQ, the terms of the core qualifying offer are a one-year guaranteed deal at the current year’s supermax. However, players can negotiate a different deal if it suits both the player and franchise.
Players who have received this offer fall under the “core designation,” and are the team’s only allowable “core player,” except if they can acquire another team’s core player via a trade. Under the CBA standards for 2022, all players who previously played for two years or more under the designation will no longer be able to be designated as a core player again by their team, once the contract’s term is finished. In Liz’s case, she only signed for one year at the supermax in 2021, meaning that she remains eligible to be cored once again by the Aces.
If the Aces do decide to core Cambage, here are the opportunities that she has in front of her:
Accept the one-year supermax: If Cambage accepts the one-year deal, she will be looking at $228,094 in base salary for the 2022 campaign. Additionally, she will be free to decide her path in the following offseason (stay with the Aces or possibly leave for a bigger market), or immediately push for a trade while under the supermax.
There is one team in particular that could have a strong appeal to her if she decides to leave in the offseason leading to 2023. The Los Angeles Sparks are currently projected to have six unrestricted free agents at that time, meaning they will have plenty of money to spend. If Liz is looking for a bigger market to perform in, then you cannot get much bigger than Los Angeles, California.
With the space that the Sparks are likely to have, they can use it on acquiring available free agents. These free agents most certainly wouldn’t balk at the idea of teaming with a player of Cambage’s talents, in the most glamorous of cities. A player that the Sparks could also target in 2023 is Brittney Griner. At that point, Griner would’ve played for more than two seasons under the Phoenix Mercury’s core designation and will be an unrestricted free agent. The idea of a Griner-Cambage, “Twin Towers,” dynamic duo sounds tantalizing for the Sparks, who are looking for their first WNBA championship since 2016.
Let’s take a look at the implications if she decides to stay with the Aces in 2023. With Las Vegas, Cambage would be eligible to receive the supermax. Per the CBA, free agents with five or more years of service signing with their previous team are eligible. The value of the supermax for 2023 is $234,936. If that is the salary in the first season of the new contract, Liz can expect to receive up to 3% raises on the future years of the contract. If she signs elsewhere, Cambage would be eligible for the regular max of $202,154.
In regards to pushing for a trade, it isn’t a foreign concept for players to have been traded or requested a trade while under the core designation. As previously mentioned, a team could acquire another team’s core player via a trade. Skylar Diggins-Smith and Natasha Howard are two examples of players who were moved from their previous team while under a “core designation”. This route would be beneficial for both the Aces and Cambage, as it would allow the Aces to trade Cambage for equitable compensation (as opposed to potentially losing her in 2023 free agency) and it allows Liz to leave if she so desires while still signing for the full supermax (that is if the team she is going to can absorb the value of the supermax onto their books.
Thus, if she accepts the one-year core-qualifying offer in 2022 (that is if the Aces extend it) she will have enormous flexibility in 2023. However, that flexibility leaves her with a big decision to make: leave for a large market or stay for a large salary.
Negotiate a deal that works for both parties: Since extending the core qualifying offer grants the Aces “exclusive” negotiating rights with Liz Cambage, she would find herself stuck between accepting the one-year qualifying offer or negotiating a different deal.
The Aces have to try and toe the line between “fair” and “foul” when negotiating a deal with Cambage. If they push towards a deal that she feels is unfavorable, she may opt towards accepting the one-year deal and effectively ending her tenure in Vegas after that.
Looking from Las Vegas’ point of view, it could be in their favor to retain Liz for multiple seasons. The franchise was exceptionally close to making their second consecutive trip to the WNBA Finals under the Aces moniker (it previously operated as the San Antonio Silver Stars until moving to Las Vegas in 2018). Cambage played an important role in that campaign, serving as one of the team’s top per-game scorers, rebounders, and shot-blockers. However, there can also be an argument made that her services might not be needed by the Aces. During the stretch of the 2021 season when she was out due to testing positive for Covid, the team went 4-1. This includes wins over the 2021 champions, the Chicago Sky (twice) as well as the Minnesota Lynx. Also, the Aces managed to reach the finals in the previous year without her presence. If Vegas’ thoughts lean towards the latter view, then the core qualifying offer would probably not even be extended as Las Vegas chooses to spend their resources on other needs.
The Aces are projected to have $724,968 in cap space this offseason, with six free agents including Liz. A large chunk of that space will likely go towards re-signing A’ja Wilson, who is a restricted free agent. Fortunately for the Aces, opposing teams cannot offer the supermax, but only the regular maximum. If a team extends an offer sheet to A’ja (the formal method of offering a deal to a restricted free agent), the most they can offer for 2022 is $196,267. Additionally, the Aces cannot offer the supermax to A’ja Wilson just yet. It is only available for free agents with five years of service. Signing her to the regular maximum would leave the Aces with $528,701 in projected space.
Here is where a snag may be hit by Cambage’s camp and the Aces. The Aces would most likely want to offer a cap-friendly deal to Liz, if they match a maximum-salary offer sheet for A’ja Wilson first. Regardless of the Aces’ decision with A'ja Wilson, Cambage’s camp would most likely aim to get her the most money possible. Considering that her base salary for the 2021 campaign was that year’s supermax ($221,450), an offer of anything south of the supermax, or even regular maximum, would probably be perceived as insulting. However, if the Aces can convince Cambage to accept less money for the benefit of the team, and a chance to possibly win her first championship, it will be a plus on their part.
A’ja Wilson’s restricted free agent status may also come up again as a possible snag to negotiations. If Liz Cambage’s camp were to negotiate a deal for multiple years under the core designation, and then A’ja Wilson signs for one year (in order to be eligible for the supermax in the following year), it will leave Wilson as a true unrestricted free agent in 2023. As per the provisions of the core qualifying offer, a team cannot have two “core” designated players on the team simultaneously unless one of them was acquired by the team via trade. Although 2023 will be the year that Vegas can offer the supermax to Wilson, by not having the core offer available, the team would be thrust into a situation in which they could lose her. This is another wrinkle that the Aces must factor in any type of negotiation with Liz Cambage.
But, what if the Aces decide not to extend Cambage the core qualifying offer, and allow her to become a true unrestricted free agent? What are her opportunities then?
In the event that occurs, there are multiple options for her across various markets:
Las Vegas Aces: Even if the Las Vegas Aces don’t extend the core qualifying offer to Liz Cambage, she still would have met the criteria to be eligible for the supermax. For the Aces, this could create enormous flexibility for both Cambage and the franchise, as they could sign Liz to a supermax and then extend the core qualifying offer on A’ja Wilson in the future (a perfect example would be if A’ja signs for one year - the Aces could extend the offer in the following offseason to retain her services).
New York Liberty: The Liberty are currently projected to have $196,560+ in cap space if they part with Rebecca Allen and Reshanda Gray. The franchise would have a great appeal, since New York is a large market. Although the Liberty struggled during the 2021 regular season, and finished 12-20, one can infer that adding a quality piece such as Cambage would improve their chances in the upcoming season. Plus, the Liberty were mere seconds away from eliminating the Mercury (who made the 2021 WNBA Finals) from postseason play.
Seattle Storm: The Seattle Storm is projected to have multiple free agents in the 2021-2022 offseason, meaning they have “beaucoup bucks” to spend to retain players. The Storm is projected to have $986,236 to fill out the team. Some of the notable free agents they have are Sue Bird, Breanna Stewart, and Jewell Loyd.
Out of those three, Stewart will most likely be offered the core qualifying offer to retain her services. Loyd, on the other hand, would then be in a peculiar position, since that will render her completely unrestricted. If she decided to leave, it would leave a gap offensively. Acquiring Liz Cambage would be a step in the right direction in filling that gap. Also, the idea of Breanna Stewart & Liz Cambage commandeering the low post is harrowing.
Chicago Sky: The Chicago Sky are in a similar predicament to the Seattle Storm. The franchise has eight free agents, including restricted & unrestricted, which is concerning. Some of their free agents include crucially important pieces from their 2021 title-winning campaign: Courtney Vandersloot, Allie Quigley, Stefanie Dolson, Kahleah Copper, Diamond DeShields, and more.
It is highly likely that the Sky will not be able to retain all of those core pieces. With $908,215 in projected cap room to fill out the roster, the franchise will need to be meticulous on where money is spent. Where Cambage comes into play is if they are looking to upgrade their paint presence. This would involve bringing in Cambage to replace Stefanie Dolson. A move such as that would definitely keep the Sky in legitimate contender status coming off their title run, even with some player losses.
So, when it comes to Liz Cambage, the phrase to use is “decisions, decisions.” Cambage is well-positioned to have multiple options for the next stage of her career. It is ultimately up to Liz and her camp to decide whether to chase: the money, the championship, or in some instances both. Liz’s next steps are also dependent on what Vegas decides to do with the core qualifying offer.
Nonetheless, whatever the Aces decide, the ball may very well be in Liz Cambage’s court.
A special thanks to Richard Cohen for his input on this article.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram.