The Weekly Roundup: March Madness Has Arrived!
Breaking down the must-watch games from the First Four and the first round
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Welcome to March Madness - a special time of year where lasting memories are made, Cinderella stories are written, and selection committees underrate mid-major programs (ahem, Florida Gulf Coast and Princeton). Will a mid-major program prove the committee wrong and make a deep tournament run? Will a No. 14 or No. 15 seed shock the basketball world and win a first-round game (For the sake of my bracket, I sure hope not, but as a fan and lover of basketball chaos, I would love it)? Can overall No. 1 seed South Carolina bounce back from its loss to Kentucky in the SEC title game and capture the program’s second national crown? It’s mind-boggling that we’ll have answers to all of these questions when the season ends in under three weeks.
But let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. Let’s first take a look at the fun that lies ahead of us in the tournament’s First Four and first round.
First-round games poised to crank the excitement up to 11
Which of the tournament’s first 36 games are primed to generate so much excitement that it might be a wise idea to mute yourself during work meetings? Well, sequels are always fun, so I once again drew on my semi-arbitrary calculation powers to identify the most can’t-miss matchups in the tournament’s first two rounds.
Similar to when I evaluated the most exciting conference tournaments, I selected the three criteria for this exercise based on the following truths: fans enjoy close games; they appreciate high-powered offenses, and they love upsets. As such, I employed the following criteria: closeness in win probability between the two teams, total projected points, and bonus points if the predicted outcome involves an upset. First-round games (i.e., the round of 64) involving teams who played in the First Four are excluded from the graph below. So, with the logistics out of the way, let’s find out which games from Wednesday to Saturday you don’t want to miss.
The three matchups that jump off the page are No. 11 DePaul vs. No. 11 Dayton, No. 10 Arkansas vs. No. 7 Utah, and, if social media is to be trusted, every fan’s hot upset take: No. 12 UMass vs. No. 5 Notre Dame.
DePaul averages a whopping 88.3 points per game, so, unsurprisingly, its First Four contest with Dayton is projected to boast the highest scoring output this week at 155 points. In addition to this and watching freshman sensation Aneesah Morrow, the Her Hoop Stats model projects the Blue Demons and Flyers to have the closest matchup of the week, with Dayton expected to advance by a score of 78-77.
Expect a barrage of threes in the Arkansas/Utah first-round matchup. Both teams rank in the top 20 in three-pointers made this season, with the Razorbacks clocking in at number 17 and the Utes coming in at No. 7. Arkansas is akin to Forrest Gump’s box of chocolates: you never know what you’re gonna get. It could be a convincing 14-point win over LSU or an uninspired 23-point drubbing at the hands of Kentucky. Led by four players who each shoot over 37% from long distance, Utah is one of the most improved shooting teams this season (51.1% effective FG this year versus 43.4% last season). The Her Hoop Stats model predicts Arkansas will pull off the nominal upset in a nailbiter, 78-76.
UMass is accustomed to being underestimated this season. Picked sixth in the Atlantic 10 preseason poll, the Minutewomen finished third in the conference regular season and knocked off regular-season champion Dayton in the Atlantic 10 final. Whether the Fighting Irish can avoid the dreaded 12/5 upset hinges on the play of a trio of underclassmen: Olivia Miles (13.7 points per game, 7.2 assists per game, 5.0 rebounds per game, and 1.9 steals per game), Sonia Citron (11.6 PPG and 6.7 RPG), and Maddy Westbeld (11.5 PPG and 6.2 RPG). While the HHS prediction model doesn’t quite agree with the Twitterverse when it comes to the outcome of this game, it does foresee one of the tightest contests of the week, with the Fighting Irish expected to narrowly escape, 71-70.
This is not intended to be an exhaustive list of the most thrilling tournament games this week. Honorable mentions go out to criminally under-seeded No. 12 Florida Gulf Coast vs. No. 5 Virginia Tech as well as No. 13 IUPUI against No. 4 Oklahoma. So get your multi-screen setup ready, grab some popcorn, and above all else, please remember to stay on mute!
Power Six performance of the week: NaLyssa Smith, Baylor
For anyone curious why some outlets have projected NaLyssa Smith as the No. 1 pick in next month’s WNBA draft, her performance Saturday afternoon in the Big 12 semifinals versus Oklahoma is Exhibit A. Smith scored in a multitude of ways, including a pair of 18-foot jumpers and a catch-and-shoot in midair off a lob pass that should have Mystics and Fever fans giddy about the prospect of landing her for next season. She finished with 37 points and 11 boards, which makes her just the third player this season to record multiple games with at least 35 points and 10 rebounds. Her 14 points during the first 7:14 of the second half helped transform a seven-point Baylor advantage into a comfortable 24-point lead.
Mid-Major performance of the week: Ane Olaeta, California Baptist
A stat line of 20 points, 10 assists, five steals, and five rebounds is an impressive achievement reserved for players with a rare combination of superior passing, shotmaking, and defense. I just described 2020-21 WAC Player of the Year and 2021-22 WAC Defensive Player of the Year Ane Olaeta to a T. Therefore, it’s little surprise that on Thursday afternoon she became the only Division I player to accomplish the feat twice. The graduate student was sensational in the Lancers’ 85-78 win over Sam Houston in the quarterfinals of the WAC tournament, finishing with 23 points, 10 assists, seven rebounds, and seven steals.
Last season’s conference player of the year, Olaeta elevated her game to new heights this year, setting career highs in points (15.2 per game), effective field goal percentage (51.9%), and steals (2.7 per outing). She ranks second in the nation in assists, dishing out 7.2 dimes per outing. In fact, Olaeta has placed in the top 1% of all Division I players in assists per game in each of her past four seasons, including last year when she led the country.
An integral part of California Baptist’s transition from Division II to consecutive 20-win seasons in Division I, Olaeta looks to cap off her remarkable career in style with a deep run in the WNIT.
Adam’s Top 25
Here’s my top 25, which as always is based on the criterion of who would currently win in a hypothetical neutral-court matchup.
Based on games played through March 13, 2022 (Graphic credit: Morgan Reeder)
Her Hoop Stats content in case you missed it
And then there were five. Last week, the Her Hoop Stats team revealed the finalists for the 2022 Becky Hammon Mid-Major Player of the Year award. You can watch each of these standout performers work their magic during the NCAA tournament. See below for their stat lines and take a look at this write-up for more details regarding their outstanding seasons. Check back during the Final Four when the winner will be announced.
Host Megan Gauer and Calvin Wetzel broke down the NCAA women’s tournament bracket, offered a few hot takes, and revealed their Final Four picks on the latest episode of Unplugged.
On Courtside, Christy Winters Scott and Gabe Ibrahim recapped the Big Ten tournament and what the future holds for the conference’s top teams during March Madness.
Interested in learning more about all 68 teams in the NCAA tournament field? Jacob Mox has you covered, as he provided a key stat for each team.
With all major free agency moves in the books, Richard Cohen analyzed each WNBA team’s roster heading into next month’s draft.
Want to relive all the heart-stopping moments from conference tournament season? The Her Hoop Stats team put together a compilation of buzzer-beaters from the past two weeks of action.
Other recommended content
Who was impacted more by moving the three-point line back this season: high-volume or low-volume shooters? Freshmen or non-freshmen? For FiveThirtyEight, Calvin Wetzel answered these questions and explored other ways in which increasing the three-point line distance impacted offenses.
The Next’s Jenn Hatfield recapped a thrilling Ivy League tournament and explained why the Ancient Eight will feature an even higher level of play in the future.
ESPN’s Alexa Philippou wrote about what fans need to know about each of the NCAA tournament’s 68 teams.
The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg covered the selection committee’s decision to place No. 2 seed UConn in the Bridgeport regional and analyzed how playing just 78 miles from campus will benefit the Huskies in the Sweet 16 and the Elite Eight.
On Sunday, BYU learned it had earned a No. 6 seed, the highest NCAA tournament seed in program history. Deseret News’ Jeff Call described whether BYU players and coaches believed their resume matched their seed and got their thoughts on the Cougars’ first-round matchup versus Villanova.
For The New York Times, Natalie Weiner revealed her list of ten players to watch during the NCAA tournament.
With six teams seeded No. 8 or better, The Washington Post’s Kareem Copeland explored the Big Ten Conference’s prospects for ending its championship drought.
Trivia question of the week
What was the last team outside of the Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, American, Pac-10/Pac-12, SEC, and ACC to reach the NCAA championship game?