The Weekly Roundup: Upset City!
Unpacking an upset-filled opening weekend of NCAA tournament play
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Are you not entertained? In the “good problem to have” department, I don’t even know where to begin. There’s the story of Jackson State and UT Arlington pushing LSU and Iowa State to the brink and nearly becoming the first No. 14 seeds to win an NCAA tournament game. Or how about No. 10 Creighton stunning almost 15,000 Iowa fans by knocking off the Hawkeyes in the round of 32? Then, there was the defensive genius of UCF almost snapping UConn’s 27-year streak of making the Sweet 16. We were within a hair of four double-digit seeds being among the tournament’s final 16 teams. The aforementioned Creighton and No. 10 South Dakota, accomplished the feat, while Tennessee and Indiana managed to hold off upset bids by No. 12 Belmont and No. 11 Princeton, respectively.
It was high drama. It was heart-stopping excitement. It was March Madness.
Breaking down the Big Dance in eight questions
In an attempt to summarize the highlights of the NCAA tournament’s first four days, I have answered eight burning questions below. For a task as daunting as encapsulating 36 games of action into one roundup, I’ve enlisted the assistance of our own Aneela Khan!
What has been the biggest surprise of the tournament?
Aneela Khan: The biggest surprise of the tournament has to be No. 10 South Dakota upsetting No. 2 Baylor in the second round. Baylor is one of the most dominant women’s college basketball programs when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. The last time they did not make it past the second round was back in 2008! Watching that game, South Dakota took a lot out of Baylor, and in the fourth quarter, Baylor’s body language indicated that they were quite shell-shocked at what was happening. South Dakota was then able to seal the deal and advance to their first Sweet 16 in program history.
Adam Vachon: There’s a reason No. 14-16 seeds now have a combined 1-336 in the NCAA tournament (excluding First Four games). First, you typically play one of the 12 best teams in the country. Second, that game usually takes place on that team’s home court. Therefore, the tournament’s biggest surprise was the performance of two No. 14 seeds who came within a whisker of defying the odds in their first-round contests. Of course, I’m talking about SWAC champion Jackson State and Sun Belt Conference champion UT Arlington.
UT Arlington had No. 3 Iowa State on the ropes during their first-round matchup Friday night, leading for 27 of the game’s 40 minutes including a three-point edge with under six minutes left in the game. The same goes for Jackson State, who held a 10-point advantage with under five minutes remaining against No. 3 LSU. It took a monster 36-point, 15-rebound effort by Ashley Joens to sink UT Arlington. Similarly, it took an extraordinary 19-point blitz in the game’s final five minutes for LSU to avoid the wrong kind of history against Jackson State.
Which game had you jumping out of your chair, yelling at the TV, and (hypothetically of course) the recipient of noise complaints from your neighbors? In other words, which game was the most fun to watch?
Adam: It’s quite the embarrassment of riches that there are so many options! I’ll go with the one that evoked the strongest emotional reaction from me - No. 10 Creighton pulling off the upset at No. 2 Iowa. Iowa transfer Lauren Jensen’s game-winning three followed by Monika Czinano’s last-second miss had the entire nation (present company included) jumping out of their chair much like Elle Duncan in ESPN’s studio. A national television audience, a capacity crowd of 15,000 fans, last-minute drama, Caitlin Clark, and an underdog pulling off the unthinkable - it was the epitome of March Madness and a fantastic showcase for women’s basketball that nearly a million viewers tuned in to watch.
Aneela: I’m with Adam! No. 2 Iowa versus No. 10 Creighton was the most fun in terms of the first-round and second-round games. I’m a Canadian, so when we get games on our basic (not digital cable), it’s always a treat! This game was on ABC and it had everything. Caitlin Clark is a well-known women’s college superstar, and No. 2 Iowa had been on a hot streak. The Hawkeyes were both Big 10 regular season and conference tournament champions, so they were expected to make a run during the NCAA Tournament as well. But, No. 10 Creighton had other plans. Both teams went back and forth and in the final seconds, Creighton was able to pull away. You could not look away for a second of that game. It had everything. In the end, No. 10 Creighton pulled off the upset and advanced to their first Sweet 16 in program history!
Based on its performance in the first two rounds, which team’s stock increased the most?
Aneela: Notre Dame. They won both their first and second-round games and made it look easy. In their second-round game against No. 4 Oklahoma, they won on the Sooners’ home floor by 44 points! They reached 100 points in that game and had a balanced scoring attack, led by Dara Mabrey’s 29 points, 17 of which she scored in the first quarter alone. In their first-round game against UMass, Olivia Miles put up a triple-double. She finished with 12 points, 11 rebounds, and 11 assists.
Adam: South Dakota. I was torn between the Coyotes, Notre Dame, and Maryland, but had to go with the No. 10 seed whose tournament performance has inspired talk of a Final Four run. Such talk is partly a function of South Dakota’s placement in the tournament’s most wide-open region, Wichita. However, convincing victories over No. 7 Ole Miss and No. 2 Baylor, games in which the Coyotes never trailed, suggest that South Dakota could become the first double-digit seed to make the Final Four. The Coyotes limited two of the likely top three picks in next month’s WNBA draft, Shakira Austin and NaLyssa Smith, to a combined 19 points on 7-for-27 shooting (25.9%) from the field. Also, South Dakota limited Baylor to 47 points on Sunday, the Bears’ lowest output of the season by 11 points.
The Coyotes’ hot shooting from long distance - 14-for-30 (46.7%) in the first and second rounds combined - is unlikely to continue. A more sustainable recipe for the Coyotes to extend their Cinderella run is their stingy defense, one that ranks eighth in the country at 53.7 points allowed per game, coupled with their ability to take care of the ball (No. 3 in turnover margin at +7.2).
Which player is pulling an Aari McDonald and has seen their stock increase the most?
Aneela: I would say Hannah Sjerven from South Dakota. South Dakota played Ole Miss in the first round, and she finished with 20 points, seven rebounds, and three steals in just 27 minutes. She outplayed Ole Miss WNBA Draft lottery prospect Shakira Austin, who finished with just 9 points on 3-for-16 shooting. In the second round, she faced Baylor’s WNBA Draft lottery prospect NaLyssa Smith and outplayed her as well! Sjerven finished with 16 points, four boards, and four steals, while NaLyssa Smith managed only 10 points on 4-for-11 shooting.
Adam: Diamond Miller. It’s not as though fans aren’t aware of Miller’s potential. She was a member of the All-Big Ten first team last season, scoring 17.3 points per outing and posting a whopping 119.8 offensive rating (points per 100 individual possessions). This year her offensive rating plummeted to 98.6 after an inconsistent, injury-filled junior campaign that saw her miss 10 games. However, as The Washington Post’s Kareem Copeland recently explained, Miller’s performance this past weekend strongly suggests that the old Diamond Miller is back. She stuffed the stat sheet in each of Maryland’s two tournament wins, averaging 23.5 points, seven boards, three steals, three assists, and one block.
Which international player has stood out so far?
Adam: Aneela, you have much better insight than I in this area, so I’ll give you the floor.
Aneela: It’s actually two players for me because they each did it in a separate round. In the first round, it was Shaina Pellington from Arizona. The Pickering, Ontario, Canada native helped Arizona get the win in the first round. She finished with a game-high 30 points, three rebounds, and four steals. She also shot efficiently from the field at 57.8%. In the second round, it was Kamilla Cardoso. With South Carolina struggling against No. 8 Miami in the second round, the Montes Claros, Brazil native gave the Gamecocks a much-needed boost off the bench. She finished with 11 points, eight rebounds, and four blocks. She also shot 44% from the field, which was needed as South Carolina shot less than 30% in the whole game!
We are contributors to Her Hoop Stats, so it’s only natural to ask what was the craziest stat from the tournament’s first 36 games.
Aneela: The craziest stat? Hmm. This is a tough one. I’ll return the favor and defer to you on this one, Adam!
Adam: Haha, fair enough. Well, fans of the mid-range jumper may want to avert their eyes. Of the 129 field goals Florida Gulf Coast attempted in its two tournament games, 121 of them (93.8%) were either from behind the arc or within four feet of the rim, per CBB Analytics.
While shocking to some, Eagles fans know that such shot selection is part of the program’s offensive DNA. After all, 49.1% of the Eagles’ scoring attempts came from behind the arc this year. That not only leads the country, but that’s the highest mark in the Her Hoop Stats database (since the 2009-10 season) and the third consecutive season Florida Gulf Coast has topped the nation in this category. How many of Florida Gulf Coast’s 2,000-plus field-goal attempts this season occurred between 10 feet and the three-point line? Twenty-seven.
Which matchup (or potential matchup) are you most looking forward to in the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight?
Aneela: The Sweet 16 matchup I’m most looking forward to is No. 4 Maryland vs No. 1 Stanford. Both teams have looked great during the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. Both can score at a high rate, both have terrific players and in our Her Hoop Stats Lobo Look, Stanford is only given a 64.6% chance of winning this game. This game should have a bit of everything. It’s going to be a fun game to tune into on Friday!
Adam: The potential Elite Eight matchup between NC State and UConn. Questions abound in this heavyweight battle. Can UConn recover from a historically poor offensive outing against UCF (albeit versus one of the country’s best defensive teams)? Will Paige Bueckers continue to shoulder a reduced offensive load, or will she exhibit a level of pre-injury dominance? How successful will Elissa Cunane be against a UConn frontcourt that ranked in the 98th percentile in points allowed in the paint (per CBB Analytics)? What role will home-court advantage play in a game taking place just 80 miles from Storrs, Conn.?
I know, I know, I’ve harped on the role of home-court advantage a lot lately, but it’s an important factor! If Bridgeport is categorized as a true home court for UConn, the Her Hoop Stats prediction model gives the Huskies a 53% chance of winning. Under this scenario (and taking into account Sweet 16 games), UConn has a 50% chance of advancing to the Final Four whereas NC State only has a 42% chance. However, if Bridgeport’s Total Mortgage Arena is classified as a neutral site, UConn’s chances of defeating the Wolfpack in this hypothetical game drop to 38%. Here, the Huskies’ chances of making the trip to Minneapolis drop to 32%, and the Wolfpack’s chances jump to 55%.
What are your picks for the Final Four?
Adam: While the tournament so far has been characterized by chaos and the success of double-digit seeds, I’m going all chalk: South Carolina, Stanford, Louisville, and NC State. Quite the hot take, right?
South Carolina’s lackluster offense that produced only 49 points in its second-round meeting against Miami is a cause for concern, but it’s too much of an overreaction to not have the Gamecocks in the Final Four.
Louisville’s defense, led by the country’s No. 2 in individual defensive rating, Emily Engstler, will carry it past an inconsistent, Jordan Horston-less Tennessee squad and the winner of Michigan/South Dakota.
NC State faces a brutal road to the Final Four, first taking on a red-hot Notre Dame squad that hung 108 points on No. 4 Oklahoma and then potentially UConn. The Wolfpack’s potent offense, which ranks No. 2 in offensive rating, dropping 110.8 points per 100 possessions, will prove too much for Notre Dame and (likely) a UConn squad without Paige Bueckers at the peak of her powers and a reliable offensive threat in the frontcourt.
Stanford’s journey to Minneapolis is no cakewalk either. It involves a fully-healthy Maryland team likely followed by a Texas squad that hasn’t lost in a month and a half and knocked off the Cardinal in November. I still see Stanford advancing on the strength of its trio of sharpshooters - Hannah Jump (40.9% 3P), Lexie Hull (41.2%), and Lacie Hull (41.9%) - and Cameron Brink’s ability to impact both ends of the court (top 20 in offensive and defensive win shares per 40 minutes).
Aneela: I also think all No. 1 seeds advance to the Final Four, although it won’t be easy. I did say Stanford will have a tough matchup against No. 4 Maryland earlier, and No. 1 NC State, as Adam indicated before, will have a potentially tough matchup with No. 2 UConn in the Elite Eight. I think No. 1 South Carolina will be able to handle its opponents in the Sweet 16 and the Elite Eight just fine. Finally, I think No. 1 seed Louisville will have to face a bit of competition in its Sweet 16 matchup against No. 4 Tennessee, but I think the Cardinals will be able to handle it to face the winner of No. 3 Michigan and No. 10 South Dakota. I think No. 1 Louisville will be able to handle it and take care of business to advance to the Final Four.
Her Hoop Stats content in case you missed it
The NCAA tournament is plenty exciting, but are you interested in making things a bit more interesting by putting some money on the action? If so, then you don’t want to miss the Wetz Bets with Calvin Wetzel and Dano Mataya. Also, be sure to check out Calvin’s appearances on SportsLine’s The Early Edge, where he revealed his early-round bets.
It’s a double dose of Courtside this week, and get this: one of those episodes took place courtside! Gabe Ibrahim and Christy Winters Scott pick their tournament brackets in the first episode, which is split into four segments on YouTube: one for each region (Greensboro, Spokane, Wichita, and Bridgeport). In episode two, they broke down Maryland’s dominance in the first two rounds and reflected on the seasons of FGCU, Virginia Tech, and Delaware.
Leveraging the Her Hoop Stats prediction model, I analyzed the impact of home-court advantage on the likelihood of upsets in this year’s tournament and explored the pros and cons of an all-neutral-site format.
It has been over 10 years since a No. 2 seed has won the NCAA tournament (Texas A&M in 2011). Megan Gauer outlined the case for each of this year’s No. 2 seeds to become the team to break the streak.
Aaron Barzilai offered an overview of the Her Hoop Stats prediction model and unveiled the chances the model gives to each team to advance in the tournament.
You’ll need an ice-cold glass of water to digest this one! From the mild to the dangerously irresponsible, Calvin Wetzel revealed his hot takes for NCAA tournament upsets and sleepers.
Other recommended content
For every three-pointer made during the NCAA tournament, Stanford coach Tara VanDerveer has pledged to donate $10 to aid Ukrainians suffering due to the Russian invasion. The USA Today’s Lindsay Schnell detailed this campaign (which Her Hoop Stats is tracking on its home page) and the effort to encourage others to support the cause.
The Athletic’s Chantel Jennings reseeded the NCAA tournament’s 16 remaining teams based solely on their performances in the first two rounds.
For The Next, Missy Hendrick reported on the recent retirement of West Virginia coach Mike Carey and reflected on his 21 years at the helm in Morgantown.
David Berri of Global Sport Matters explored the most effective ways to grow women’s basketball as a business.
The Athletic’s Scott Dochterman profiled one of the nation’s most offensively efficient players, Iowa’s Monika Czinano.
For Yahoo! Sports, Henry Bushnell chronicled Jackson State’s historic near-upset of LSU.
Trivia question of the week
Who is the only player to record multiple triple-doubles in the same NCAA Tournament?
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.
Very interesting and well written and analyzed by Adam and Aneela.
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UConn has a harder road to the elite eight than anyone seems to be talking about.