Phoenix Mercury: Operation Desert Reborn
Discussing some key objectives for Phoenix in the coming years
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The Phoenix Mercury is a franchise looking for a new direction: new coaching staff, new general manager, and possibly a new franchise cornerstone. Although Phoenix has struggled in the years since its 2021 WNBA Finals appearance, there have been some bright spots. Last year saw the return of Brittney Griner after her wrongful imprisonment in Russia as well as Diana Taurasi becoming the first WNBA player to reach 10,000 career points.
However, the Mercury have their work cut out for them, especially this offseason. New head coach Nate Tibbetts has lofty expectations as the highest-paid coach in the W. Nick U’ren, who previously was in the Mercury organization before leaving to join the NBA’s Golden State Warriors, is now back as general manager. As the person making the roster decisions, there will be a microscope on how U’ren handles the Mercury. But Phoenix’s outlook shouldn’t be grim if it adheres to a succinct game plan.
In order for the Mercury to rise again in the future, here is what their potential game plan should look like, in what I call Operation Desert Reborn.
Phase 1: Target short-term issues and spend wisely to fix them
It cannot be stressed enough that the W operates under a hard cap, unlike the NBA. How a team allocates its cap space could be the difference maker between a contender and a pretender. Owner Mat Ishbia has shown a willingness to spend money, racking up luxury taxes with the star-studded Phoenix Suns. This past offseason, the Mercury elected to re-sign the legendary Diana Taurasi to a two-year deal, in which she earned the supermax in the first year.
But with new management at the helm, Phoenix should look to bring in quality free agents at good value. The Mercury will start 2024 with $633,042 in cap space. Brittney Griner is slated to be an unrestricted free agent this offseason and cannot be cored, as she has played more than two seasons under the core designation. However, the signs point to Griner staying in Phoenix. Skylar Diggins-Smith, who sat out the 2023 season due to pregnancy, made it clear that she will not return after a deterioration in the relationship between her and the franchise.
Most of the deals signed this offseason are likely to be for two years at most given the strong probability of an early opt-out of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA). If the players opt out, the CBA will be terminated at the end of the 2025 season. A two-year deal lines a player up to become a free agent around the time of new CBA discussions. The league’s current TV deal is also set to expire in 2025. There is the expectation that the new deal will be higher in value. In conjunction with a new CBA agreement, it is believed this will ultimately lead to higher salaries. With the expectation of higher salaries across the board in 2026, a player becoming a free agent avoids getting locked into a lower salary.
But Phoenix has cap space for 2024. The key questions are how they use it and on whom. One of the areas the Mercury struggled in 2023 was rebounding, and that’s with Griner on the team. It would behoove Phoenix to shore up the interior by acquiring players who can secure possessions. The Mercury also struggled in putting points on the board, ranking last in scoring and field-goal attempts. Outside of Griner and Taurasi, the team didn’t have a great deal of offensive firepower. Getting players who can fill either need or both and at a decent value will be key for the Mercury. With the right blend of talent and cap space allocation, the Mercury could look towards their first playoff appearance since their Finals run in 2021.
Another lackluster year for Phoenix will not be beneficial, both for the fans and for the organization’s future prospects. In 2023, the Mercury were involved in the four-team deal that sent Marina Mabrey from Dallas to Chicago. Phoenix acquired Michaela Onyenwere from New York, but, New York acquired the rights to swap 2025 first-round picks. Another playoff miss means that the Liberty will gain Phoenix’s 2025 lottery pick.
Phase 2: Get younger for the long-haul
Age is something that Phoenix will have to address for the long term. Only two Mercury players under contract next season will be 25 or younger: Onyenwere and Kadi Sissoko. Sug Sutton, who surprised many in 2023, will turn 26 if reserved and re-signed. Phoenix will be getting a player younger than 25 in the upcoming WNBA Draft (more on that later), but the Mercury will need to get younger across the board if they want to be set for the long haul.
The Mercury do not have a second-round pick in the upcoming draft; however, they have two third-round picks, open roster spots, and cap space to sign young talent. In the WNBA Draft, some third-round picks end up becoming a draft-and-stash. This is when teams draft a player with the expectation they develop overseas before coming into the league years later. One name that comes to mind here is Isobel Borlase, who currently plays in Australia’s WNBL for the Adelaide Lightning, is only 19 years old but has made a splash thus far. Borlase was also selected to Australia’s 20-player squad ahead of the 2024 Olympics. Of that group, 12 will be selected for the tournament. Some mock drafts have Borlase as a fringe first-round pick or likely second-round pick. But if she were to fall to the third round, that is where Phoenix could look to strike, as it has the first and fifth picks of the round. At 5-foot-11, Borlase provides the Lightning with shooting, playmaking, and a bit of rugged defense. Having the rights to a player like Borlase, especially if she decides to spend another year or more overseas to develop, will be important.
Another region where Phoenix could look to get younger is Europe. One player that comes to mind here is France’s Janelle Salaun. At 6-foot-2 and 22 years old, Salaun is a tenacious defender with elite athleticism and a knack for creating shots in the midrange. Although there’s room for improvement in terms of shooting efficiency, her defensive upside far outweighs any short-term offensive deficiencies. Salaun also plays with Sissoko on the French National Team, so there is some common ground there. Depending on whom the Mercury sign in the offseason and select in the draft, they may only have the following locked in at the wing: Sophie Cunningham, Onyenwere, and Sissoko. Thus, Salaun could help shore that up if the team addresses its shooting and rebounding deficiencies.
Back to the Borlase scenario: What if someone like her, a 19-year-old potential draft pick, decides to take an extra year to develop to truly feel comfortable enough at the WNBA level? Using Borlase as an example, if she is drafted in 2024 and decides to enter the league in 2025, she would be 20 years old with multiple years of pro experience and still younger than most draft-eligible players in the 2025 class. Cunningham, who serves as the Mercury’s sharpshooter, turns 29 years old that season. By the time Borlase finishes her rookie-scale contract, she would be 24 and Cunningham (if kept after 2024) would be turning 32. That is an eight-year gap, and if a Borlase-level talent shows traits of providing what Cunningham can now or even better, then what does the next eight years of development look like? By getting younger, Phoenix would have a longer horizon in which a player could be beneficial to them.
There’s no guarantee Phoenix will get those exact players or is even looking in those directions. But young and skilled players are what Phoenix should be looking for. There is a tie-in to phase 1 here. If the Mercury can be competitive after addressing the issues of last season, their youth will gain experience in meaningful games. Having a great deal of playoff experience early on can be immensely beneficial for long-term development. For reference, look at the Aces. Before their first championship win in 2022:
A’ja Wilson had four playoff appearances in her first five seasons (including a trip to the Finals in 2020).
Kelsey Plum had three playoff appearances in her first five seasons.
Jackie Young had four playoff appearances in her first four seasons.
Being battle-tested relatively early in their careers has given Vegas chemistry and success. That is something lottery teams like Phoenix hope to have in the coming years.
Phase 3: Establish a new franchise cornerstone
The Mercury have to understand that the Griner-Taurasi era that paved the way for Phoenix’s success is quickly coming to a close. Taurasi will turn 42 this season, the last year of her current contract ($234,936). Although it’s likely Griner stays in Phoenix, we do not know how long that will be. It is plausible that Griner signs for one more year, lining up her contract’s expiration date with Taurasi’s, especially if Taurasi’s upcoming season is her last.
Phoenix received the third overall pick in the 2024 WNBA draft lottery. This is its first lottery pick since 2013 when the franchise selected Griner first overall. With an abundance of talent expected to be in the 2024 draft class, Phoenix has an array to choose from. Potential players projected to be available at third include: Paige Bueckers, Cameron Brink, Rickea Jackson, and Kamilla Cardoso. Each of the four provides something that Phoenix could use in the short-term and long-term:
Paige Bueckers: A dynamic scorer and playmaker and the potential heir apparent to Taurasi. If Taurasi retires soon, someone will be needed at the shooting guard position.
Cameron Brink: A 6-foot-4, two-way forward notorious for her shot blocking, post skills, and ability to hit the outside jumper. Using Brink as a floor spacer on offense could open up easier looks for Griner. Defensively, the Mercury would have shot-blocking galore with Griner, Brink and Brianna Turner.
Rickea Jackson: Versatile at the forward position, Jackson can score in a multitude of ways. Phoenix was last in points per game as a team in 2023; Jackson could provide that extra scoring needed for 2024 and beyond.
Kamilla Cardoso: At 6-foot-7, Cardoso has size, athleticism, mobility, and could be a potential force down low; This is a player Phoenix has to consider as a future big in a post-Griner Mercury era.
Selecting one of the four will net Phoenix a player most believe could be a perennial All-Star. If Phoenix fields a relatively competitive roster for the next few years, that player will receive crucial playoff experience at an early stage. If the team also has young and developing talent, that 2024 pick will also build with them creating a strong and young core. The Mercury are currently looking like the team of the past. Following this blueprint would have them looking more like the team of the future.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.