Mid-Majors to Watch in Week Two of Conference Tournaments
Four under-the-radar stories to keep an eye on leading up to Selection Monday
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Selection Monday is just six days away, but there are still plenty of spots in the NCAA Tournament up for grabs this week. There will be 21 automatic bids earned between now and Sunday, and many of them will be from one-bid leagues. Here are some of the best stories to follow in this week’s mid-major conference tournaments — and beyond.
Stephen F. Austin in the Southland
Analytics darling SFA earned the No. 1 seed in the Southland Tournament and a bye into Saturday’s semifinals. The Ladyjacks are ranked seventh in our Her Hoop Stats ratings and 17th in the NET after rolling through their Southland schedule, winning all but their final game by more than 20 points.
A true two-way team, SFA leads the nation in opponent points per play and is fourth in points per scoring attempt. Ladyjack opponents collectively have more turnovers than made field goals — by a whopping 137! SFA is led by a balanced attack on the offensive end, as all five starters average between 9.0 and 13.3 points per game. But tune in for perhaps the best bench player in the country — energetic freshman Avery Brittingham leads the nation in defensive rating and is fourth in win shares per 40 minutes on the strength of rebounding numbers that defy logic for a 6-footer. She’s the only qualifying bench player in the country to rebound over 17% of her own team’s misses and over 24% of opponents’ misses.
Brittingham could be one of the most fun players to watch in the NCAA Tournament if her team can get there. But despite the Ladyjacks’ success, they’ll likely need to win both games this weekend to secure their spot with an automatic bid. Should they need an at-large bid, their résumé will have “bubble” written all over it. If SFA punches its ticket this weekend, don't be surprised if it stuns a major conference team in the Big Dance.
California Baptist in the WAC
The last team to go unbeaten in college basketball was Breanna Stewart’s UConn team in 2016. California Baptist, currently 22-0, has a legitimate shot to pull it off this season due to NCAA Division I transition rules. There are two undefeated teams left, with Bucknell at 9-0, but Bucknell would have to win the national title in order to finish without a loss. California Baptist is in its third season in Division I, and thus is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament. If the Lancers can run the table in Las Vegas this week and win the WAC Tournament, they’ll potentially be in line for a bid to the WNIT, where they’d have a chance to make history.
History isn’t the only reason to watch this team, however. Come for the undefeated season, stay for the run-and-gun offense. For fans of threes, passing, and up-tempo basketball, CBU is an aesthetically pleasing dream. “You’re going to get in trouble because you didn’t shoot it, not because you shoot too much,” guard Sydney Palma recently told Sports Illustrated’s Kevin Sweeney.
In the mold of Doug Bruno’s DePaul teams, the Lancers rank in the top 25 in both pace and three-point rate and are second in the country in assist rate. The latter is largely thanks to the play of senior point guard Ane Olaeta, one of two holdovers from the team’s final season in Division II. Olaeta leads the country in assists per game (7.9) and assist rate (46.2%). At just 5-foot-4, there are few players in the country who can run a break like Olaeta.
FGCU in the Atlantic Sun
Florida Gulf Coast isn’t chasing a perfect season. But the Eagles haven’t lost since November, and they haven’t lost with star transfer Kierstan Bell in the lineup. After opening the season with a win over NAIA Florida Memorial, FGCU dropped its first two contests of the Gulf Coast Showcase to ranked foes Missouri State and Arkansas while Bell waited for the NCAA’s decision on her eligibility. The former Ohio State reserve was granted immediate eligibility following the Arkansas loss on November 28, and her team’s won every game since. Her stats this year speak for themselves.
Between Bell and her partner in crime, JUCO transfer TK Morehouse, FGCU boasts one of the highest-scoring duos in the country at over 42 combined points per game. It hasn’t taken long for the two to develop elite chemistry in their first year under head coach Karl Smesko, and both could give a higher seed fits in the NCAA Tournament.
Like California Baptist, the biggest reason to watch this team might be its offensive system. Smesko has embraced the analytical “Moreyball” revolution more than any coach in America. According to CBB Analytics, the Eagles have taken just 1.2% of their shots from midrange, the lowest mark in the country. (California Baptist and SFA are third and 16th, respectively, and all three schools were in the top seven in “Moreyball Rate” in each of the last two seasons as well.) FGCU has taken seven shots all season from between 15 feet and the three-point arc. Enjoy this beautiful shot chart, then enjoy the beautiful basketball when the Atlantic Sun Tournament tips off on Wednesday.
Jackson State in the SWAC
The SWAC’s representative in the NCAA Tournament typically earns a No. 15 or No. 16 seed. Should Jackson State earn the SWAC autobid this season, it will likely find itself in the same position. But don’t be fooled — this Jackson State team is no ordinary SWAC team. Its top-75 HHS Rating is the best of any SWAC team in our database by a wide margin. And they’ve already made some history this season.
The Lady Tigers are led on offense by Dayzsha Rogan and Ameshya Williams, who combine to score over 33 points per game. Williams is also the only qualifying player in Division I to rank in the top 25 in rebounding rate on both sides of the ball, and Rogan’s combination of volume and efficiency from beyond the arc (over 40% on six attempts per game) is unmatched by any SWAC player in the HHS database.
The defensive end is where the Lady Tigers really hang their hat though. There may be no better way to describe their defense than “annoying.” Between the starters and top sub Jariyah Covington, only the 6-4 Williams and 5-10 Elexis Peyton are taller than 5-6. Head coach Tomekia Reed (a rising star in the coaching world) has a squad full of quickness and grinders who live to make life miserable for opponents. Williams and the few reserves who do have height can make life miserable for opponents too — the Lady Tigers draw fouls at a top-40 rate and are 12th in offensive rebounding rate. Trying to box them out is equally annoying.
Jackson State still isn’t likely to knock off a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. But it’s the last team any top-two seed should want to face in the first round — the Lady Tigers could keep it close into the second half. Their quest to get that chance begins when the SWAC Tournament gets underway on Wednesday.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
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