NCAA Betting: Championship Futures
Breaking down the best bets on the board
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As the calendar flips to 2022, it feels like we know so much and yet so little. While there remain a few key nonconference matchups to look forward to (hello, UConn!), over the past two months we’ve learned a great deal about each team and the national landscape as a whole after completing nearly 100% of the out-of-league games.
Yet, with hardly any conference games in the books, the next two months could shift the picture dramatically.
As such, it’s a great time to check out the championship betting odds and take stock of where things stand heading into the “second half” of the regular season. DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbooks have posted lines for the women’s championship, so let’s take a look at the teams I see the most betting value in.
South Carolina (+225, DraftKings)
These odds were available before Missouri’s Lauren Hansen eliminated the donut in South Carolina’s loss column, and this bet looked a lot more obvious then. But the Gamecocks are still the best team in the nation, and we could sit here and fill the entire length of this article with their accomplishments and superlatives. There’s a reason they stayed in the top spot in our ratings and the AP Poll even after a loss.
Betting, however, isn’t about picking the best teams, it’s about finding the most value. (If you’re new to our betting content, check out our intro to WNBA futures for a breakdown on how to measure that value.)
Even the best team ever in a pool of entirely overmatched opponents doesn’t have value if the odds aren’t right. As good as that undefeated 2015-16 UConn team was, I never would have bet $100 on them if the winnings were only $1.
It’s for that reason that it’s still notable that the favorites are on this list. At +225 odds, DraftKings gives South Carolina an implied probability of about 30.8% to win it all. If you believe the Gamecocks have at least a 31% chance to cut down the nets, this is a good bet.
We now know that Dawn Staley’s squad is beatable. It will probably lose again between now and April. At +225 odds, though, the best team is still the best bet as well.
NC State (+1500, DraftKings and FanDuel)
NC State looked like it may have been on its way to a Final Four last season after landing a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Indiana had other plans and sent the Wolfpack packing in the Sweet 16.
This year’s team looks even better. Adding the shooting and pesky defense of Rutgers transfer Diamond Johnson to what had been a somewhat thin bench has been a recipe for success for Wes Moore. An eighth-ranked Her Hoop Stats rating last season has jumped to second this year — only South Carolina is higher.
That improvement has come despite Jada Boyd still getting up to speed after missing five games due to injury. The top-three mark of 41.9% from behind the three-point line may regress a little as the season goes on, but it’s apparent that the Wolfpack can space the floor around their star Elissa Cunane in the post. That shooting will be vital when March rolls around.
NC State’s +1500 odds give them an implied probability of 6.3% to win the championship. That’s lower than Maryland, a team NC State throttled in November, and UConn, who is in danger of losing out on a No. 1 seed for only the second time since 2006 if it continues to struggle without Paige Bueckers.
Sportsbooks don’t update these odds nearly as often as they should, but it’s hard to imagine that this line won’t drop at some point. Grab the Wolfpack at +1500 while you can.
Georgia (+12000, FanDuel)
If NC State is the second-best team, then beating them should be enough to vault a team into the contender conversation. That’s exactly what Georgia did on December 16 in an overtime thriller. (Who can forget Sarah Ashlee Barker’s cold-blooded three at the end of regulation?)
Joni Taylor is in a similar position to Wes Moore in that she brought back quite a bit of talent from a phenomenal 2020-21 team. In addition to Barker, grad seniors Que Morrison and Mikayla Coombs lead an experienced backcourt that loves to frustrate opposing guards defensively, and fellow grad Jenna Staiti continues to anchor the middle on both ends.
A No. 3 seed last year wasn’t quite enough to help the Bulldogs reach the Sweet 16, but it’s fair to wonder if things would have been different in a typical year with home-court advantage in the second round. This year’s team is putting together another resume worthy of hosting the first weekend, as its lone blemishes to date are a one-point loss to No. 16 Georgia Tech and a six-point defeat at the hands of No. 13 LSU.
Georgia isn’t dangerous enough on offense to be a Final Four favorite, but a run similar to Arizona’s last year doesn’t seem too far-fetched. Like that team, Georgia has a defense that can keep them in almost any game.
For a team that’s in the top 15 in our ratings and the AP Poll, odds on par with unranked West Virginia don’t make a lot of sense. The implied probability of 0.8% means that all we need is a 1% chance of Georgia winning the championship for this bet to have value. That’s certainly worth a shot.
Longshots: Alabama, BYU, FGCU, Gonzaga, Oklahoma, LSU, SFA (all +50000, FanDuel)
Look, I get it — none of these teams are winning the championship. But the same odds as a 3-9 Wisconsin team and a 3-8 Virginia team who both sit outside of the top 200 in Her Hoop Stats rating and have combined for one NCAA Tournament appearance in the last decade?
C’mon. That’s just disrespectful.
All seven of these teams are in the top 40 in our rating, and it’s a virtual lock that at least five or six will make the field of 68. It wouldn’t be surprising in the slightest to see a second-weekend run come from this group either.
FanDuel is hit or miss with allowing cashouts, so tread lightly here. Like we said, these teams aren’t winning this thing. But if you can place some loose change on the +50000 line now and catch FanDuel on a good day down the road, you could cash out any of these at a much better price and turn a profit simply by treating them like stocks. They’ll all be worth more than Wisconsin and Virginia whenever FanDuel gets around to paying attention.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
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