Bracket Breakdown: Hot Takes Edition

Your guide to the best upsets and sleepers in the 2023 bracket

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If you’ve been following for a while, you know we’ve rolled out a selection of hot wings takes for each of the last two tournaments, complete with several flavors to choose from.

The hot wings are back for year three with more tournament takes to satiate all your cravings for spice! Unless, that is, you hate spice altogether. If you’re new here, we aren’t interested in bland, so as a rule, none of these takes will line up with the chalk bracket.

Alright, let’s get to it.

Graphic credit: Morgan Reeder

Mild

These takes are for those who want some flavor but have wimpy taste buds. Only slightly less likely than the seedline favorites, these predictions still have a very realistic chance of coming to fruition.

No. 2 UConn will make the Final Four

Sorry, this one is neither new nor fun, but a No. 2 seed making the Final Four isn’t chalk, so it counts. There was a time very recently when this would have looked crazy, as UConn finished the regular season without a double-digit win in over a month. But the return of Azzi Fudd, even off the bench, sparked them in the Big East Tournament, and they looked like their typical dominant selves once again.

Their biggest competition, meanwhile, is No. 1 seed Virginia Tech – winners of 11 straight but arguably the weakest team on the top line. The other challengers are a Tennessee team that they beat handily already this season and an Ohio State team that is under .500 since Jan. 20.

It’s been a decade and a half since the Huskies missed out on the Final Four, and until it happens again, there’s no reason to think that streak won’t continue.

No. 10 Alabama will beat No. 7 Baylor

On paper, this should be one of the best matchups of the first round. Neither of these teams is particularly dominant at anything, but both have enough talent to win big games in March. The separator is going to be the shooting of the Crimson Tide.

Alabama gets a lot of credit for its defense, but the Crimson Tide quietly rank sixth in the country with a 38% 3-point percentage. Hannah Barber and Aaliyah Nye are one of the best shooting tandems in the country, and Brittany Davis can score from just about anywhere. They take 3s at a top-40 rate as well, so Baylor will have its hands full. Nicki Collen’s team hasn’t guarded the arc at a high level all season, so Alabama should get plenty of looks for that trio.

Baylor’s lack of size could come into play as well, as the Bears don’t start anyone over 6-foot-1. If Jada Rice can take advantage of that inside, it could open up even more outside shots for the Tide.

Medium

Order from this section for picks that have a little extra kick. These takes don’t sting, but they provide enough heat to satisfy your cravings for boldness — or to earn you bragging rights in your office pool.

No. 11 UNLV will beat No. 6 Michigan

If you put any stock in the AP Poll, this one is a lot closer than the seed lines would indicate – Michigan is ranked No. 18 while UNLV is No. 22. While UNLV has had the benefit of a weaker schedule, they faced a few tests in the Mountain West and made it through without a blemish.

The Rebels’ one rough stretch this season came in December, when in the span of 15 days they lost to Pacific, barely squeaked by Division II Hawaii Hilo, and got run over by Oklahoma State. But the latter two of those games were among UNLV’s first since losing starting forward Nneka Obiazor to a season-ending injury, and they’ve adjusted to life without her since then.

Desi-Rae Young could create problems for Michigan’s frontcourt, and the Rebels have been known to bring some pressure on the other side as well. Michigan struggled against the press in two of its three meetings with the Big Ten’s heaviest-pressing team in Ohio State this season, and while the Wolverines did look better in their most recent matchup, it still wasn’t quite enough to get the win. In fact, Michigan comes in having lost four of its last six, including a head-scratcher to Wisconsin.

Another problem for the Wolverines is their defense’s vulnerability to getting beat by off-ball movement. We’ve seen them at times this season struggle against actions like backdoors, and with Stanford alum Lindy La Rocque at the helm, UNLV runs its fair share of that type of offense. According to Synergy, UNLV is ninth in points per possession cutting, while Michigan is the fourth worst on defense in the same category.

No. 4 Tennessee will make the Elite Eight

I admittedly spent much of this season low on Tennessee after they received an entirely-too-lofty preseason AP ranking in the top five. But, between the way the Vols have played since the start of February and their path in the bracket, it’s time to reverse course. Are they a top-five team? No. Do they have a clear shot at the Elite Eight? Definitely.

They start out with a No. 13 seed in Saint Louis that, despite being a terrific story as of late, has yet to be above .500 this season and is the least equipped of any of the 13s to pull an upset. Their next matchup would be either Iowa State or Toledo – both capable opponents, but neither a team that would be favored on the road at Rocky Top.

The biggest test would come in the Sweet 16 against Virginia Tech (if the Hokies can make it that far). That would be a rematch of a December game in which Virginia Tech won by just three despite the absence of Tennessee star Rickea Jackson. With Jackson back and playing some of her best basketball of the season, that rematch may end up being a coin flip, so it makes sense to roll with the No. 4 seed in your bracket.

Hot

Now we’re getting spicy. No, not 16-over-1 spicy, but spicy enough to get your nose running. True connoisseurs of heat will find their comfort zone here.

No. 12 Drake will beat No. 5 Louisville

The Ride to the NCAA Tournament for Drake was full of Energy, as the Bulldogs secured some Big Rings by taking home the Missouri Valley Tournament title. They were on their Worst Behavior in how they treated opponents during the conference tournament. But that’s Over, so What’s Next? It may have been God’s Plan for this Fancy offense to get One Dance on the national stage. Drake does turn it over a bit Too Much, but when they Get It Together and Take Care of the ball, Lord Knows they are Too Good for most defenses.

Musical allusions aside, the Missouri Valley Tournament Champions present a seriously tough matchup for Louisville. The way the Drake motion offense moves and cuts and slips and ducks in hard is a nightmare even for teams that see it two or three times a year. When you haven’t seen it before, it can be daunting.

This isn’t the same Louisville defense that carried the Cardinals to the 2022 Final Four, either. It’s actually the worst defense this program has had since 2010 by virtually any statistical measure. Hailey Van Lith will be the best player on the court, and she’s capable of carrying a team on her good nights.

If Louisville wants to make it to the Final Four in Back To Back seasons, however, the Cardinals will have to contain Maggie Bair, who can get it done inside and out.

Drake, Make Me Proud.

No. 11 Middle Tennessee will make the Sweet 16

One double-digit seed that has already taken care of Louisville is Middle Tennessee, who defeated the Cardinals by 18 earlier in the season. That was no fluke – the Blue Raiders can compete with anyone.

For starters, they love to shoot the 3-ball, which is usually a key ingredient for an underdog to come out on top. They also slow the game down, taking nearly 17 seconds per possession according to CBB Analytics (one of the 100 slowest in the country). Notably, this whole pod features slow teams – all four rank in the bottom third of Division I in pace. That sets up well for a bracket buster breaking out of this pod, considering fewer possessions means fewer chances for the favorite to pull away.

MTSU also draws fouls at a high rate, which could create problems for two teams in Colorado and Duke who both rank in the top third of the country in foul rate. If the Blue Raiders can get some opponents in foul trouble and hit their shots, they have what it takes to play for another week.

Fire

Only the bravest of souls dare venture into this section. These takes, while unlikely, have the potential to completely shake up the bracket. If you enjoy the physical pain of pure heat, you’ve come to the right place. If not, then you better have some milk ready.

No. 12 FGCU will make the Sweet 16

Florida Gulf Coast finds itself in a familiar spot as an underseeded No. 12 seed – a spot that the Eagles turned into a first-round upset last year. And while that is extremely possible again this year, so much so that sportsbooks have FGCU favored, don’t be surprised if they take it one step further.

This team will always be an analytical dream as long as Karl Smesko is coaching there. The Eagles have taken 10 midrange jumpers (from beyond 15 feet) all season, and they are leading the country in 3-point rate for the fourth season in a row. In their sixth straight NCAA Tournament, no one on this team will be fazed by the moment.

Washington State had a historic run through the Pac-12 Tournament, and the Cougars deserve a lot of credit for their championship. But that run also landed them a much higher seed than they may have otherwise gotten, so FGCU gets a benefit that most No. 12 seeds don’t – the chance to face a team that metrics would not consider a top-25 squad.

The second round will likely be a much taller task, as Maddy Siegrist and Villanova will presumably await. But FGCU is capable of beating them too – Her Hoop Stats Ratings and CBB Analytics adjusted net ratings both have FGCU ranked slightly higher than even the Wildcats.

Indiana will win the championship

At first glance, picking the No. 2 overall seed to win the championship probably doesn’t seem that spicy. It probably looks more like a bell pepper than a ghost pepper. But when you consider that virtually every model out there gives South Carolina over a 50% chance to cut down the nets and no other team even a 10% chance, picking anybody other than the Gamecocks gets a whole lot hotter.

South Carolina is the clear favorite for a reason. The Gamecocks haven’t lost in over a year, after all. But they’ve had enough close calls, including two overtime games, that it’s clear this isn’t the same situation as Breanna Stewart’s 38-0 UConn team in 2016. It’s possible to beat South Carolina if you’re disciplined enough.

That’s where the Hoosiers have a chance. They rebound the ball on the defensive end, which is a requirement against South Carolina’s hoards of big glass crashers, and they don’t beat themselves. Teri Moren is one of the most intelligent basketball minds in the country, and she consistently has a good game plan on both sides of the ball.

Perhaps the most important thing this Indiana team has is shot makers. Their offense is built around the best post scorer in the country in Mackenzie Holmes, but everyone else on the floor is a threat to score from outside if given a window. Combine that with the passing of Yarden Garzon, Chloe Moore-McNeil, and Grace Berger, and you really have to guard all five spots at all times when you face the Hoosiers.

This program has made its first-ever Sweet 16 and first ever Elite Eight in the last two seasons, and it’s ready to take the next step. The experience and veteran leadership has the potential to take the Hoosiers all the way this time around.

Bonus irresponsibly dangerous take

The hottest pepper in the world is the Carolina Reaper, which, according to pepperhead.com, is 200 times hotter than a jalapeño. If you’re foolish enough to make it this far, the Carolina Reaper of takes awaits you.

No. 13 Sacramento State will beat No. 4 UCLA

Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams, a No. 13 has knocked off a No. 4 just seven times in 112 games. Wright State in 2021 is the only team to do it in over a decade, and Rice in 2000 is the only one to ever do it on the road. With the current format of the women’s tournament giving home court advantage to the top four seeds in each region, it becomes significantly harder for a No. 13 to beat a No. 4 than it is for a No. 12 to beat a No. 5.

If you’re looking to get crazy, however, there’s a No. 13 seed this year that just might pull it off. Sacramento State checks two of the same important boxes as Middle Tennessee in terms of qualities you want to see in an underdog: slow pace and 3-point shooting. UCLA doesn’t mind playing those slow games either, so this one will be far from a track meet.

The big thing to watch for will be the duo of Kahlaijah Dean and Izzy Natabou, legitimately one of the best pick-and-roll combos in the country. UCLA has given up a lot of looks this season out of ball screens, so the Bruins will have their hands full with the Hornet stars who average a combined 36 points and 15 rebounds.

On the other end, Sacramento State’s defense doesn’t over help, so the Bruins may have to rely on Charisma Osborne and Kiki Rice taking over. They are certainly able to at times, but their perimeter shooting leaves a lot to be desired. And it’s worth mentioning that Sacramento State head coach Mark Campbell spent seven years as an assistant at Oregon before taking this job two years ago, so he has scouted UCLA several times before.

More often than not, every home team wins its first round game, and that may happen again this year. But if there’s one road team that could break through in your 2023 bracket, it’s Sacramento State.

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Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!

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