The Weekly Roundup: February 1
The 2020-2021 Her Hoop Stats Ratings have dropped and WNBA free agency officially begins
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Happy Monday! Let’s dive in to the last week in basketball.
The Best Upset
Virginia Tech over NC State in overtime (83-71): The Virginia Tech Hokies came close to upsetting NC State last Sunday, but let a lead slip in the final minutes. The Hokies only had to wait a few days for revenge, though. Aisha Sheppard erupted in the second half to score 28 points. Camille Hobby hit a 3-point buzzer beater for the Wolfpack to force overtime, but the Hokies outscored NC State 26-14 in the five extra minutes. Virginia Tech’s extra effort set the record for the most points scored in an overtime period in Division I women’s history.
Jacqueline’s Top 25 Ballot
Louisville (16-0)
South Carolina (14-1)
Stanford (15-2)
UConn (11-1)
UCLA (10-2)
NC State (11-1)
Baylor (12-2)
Maryland (12-2)
Texas A&M (16-1)
Oregon (11-3)
Ohio State (10-1)
Arizona (11-2)
Arkansas (13-6)
Michigan (10-1)
South Florida (10-1)
Tennessee (12-3)
Kentucky (13-4)
Indiana (10-4)
Gonzaga (15-2)
West Virginia (13-2)
Georgia (13-4)
Northwestern (9-3)
Mississippi State (8-5)
DePaul (9-4)
Georgia Tech (9-3)
Yesterday, we released the Her Hoop Stats Ratings for the 2020-2021 season! The ratings were developed shortly after Her Hoop Stats launched and are currently available back to 2015-16. The ratings use machine learning to automatically evaluate each team based on not just their won-loss record but how they perform in each game. We continue to work on improving the ratings each season and have some exciting work in progress that we hope to release soon.
The top 20 teams are featured on the Her Hoop Stats home page, and the full lists for Division I, II, and III are available to subscribers. In addition to the HHS rating, we’re providing information to help you understand a team’s strength of schedule with opponent average offensive and defensive rating, opponent average win percentage, opponent’s average opponent win percentage, and simple RPI.
Here’s what the top 10 currently look like on the Her Hoop Stats Leaderboard. South Carolina and UConn make up the top tier of teams with a nearly equal rating, and have a notable margin between the next tier of three teams who are all within a point of each other. Oregon and Rutgers (who hasn’t played since Jan. 3rd) are the highest ranked teams with three losses due to their large margin of victory in the games that they have won. As the season progresses, we’ll see if they can justify their current HHS Ratings or whether they will drop as our algorithm has more data with which to assess them.
The top teams look slightly different than most AP voters’ ballots and the NCAA NET rankings. Some other highlights from the leaderboard:
Duke only played four games before opting out but had a strong showing in those games and still ranks 23rd overall on the leaderboard. As a result we’ll talk about the top 26 for now to include 25 teams other than Duke.
South Florida, Gonzaga, Missouri State, Stephen F. Austin, and South Dakota are the only mid majors to rank in the top 26, but Rice is not far behind at 28. Interestingly enough, our model is lower on South Dakota State than the AP poll. They are just 56th in Her Hoop Stats Rating despite three ranked wins this season and re-entering the AP Top 25 last week.
The Big Ten has six teams in the top 26 (and nine total teams in the top 40).
The SEC has five teams in the top 26 (and eight total teams in the top 40).
By The Numbers
Louisville is set to take on NC State for the first time this season tonight at 7 p.m. EST on ESPN2. Louisville is one of four remaining undefeated teams in the country, and the only undefeated team left in a power conference. The Wolfpack have been without leading scorer Elissa Cunane for the last two games, but are hopeful she’ll be back tonight. So how do the teams stack up?
When it comes to shooting and defensive scoring, the two teams are nearly identical in most stats. They’re both averaging 1.15 points per scoring attempt and both averaging a little more than 48% from the field. Both teams are also holding their opponent to about 0.88 points per scoring attempt.
Louisville senior Dana Evans has saved her best season for last as she’s improved in all major statistical categories over her college career. She’s currently averaging 19.5 points on 45.8% shooting and 4.4 assists per game. She’s third in the ACC in scoring average and ranks second in the conference in total win shares.
Despite missing the last two games for NC State, Cunane still leads her team with 16.2 points and 7.5 rebounds per game. Her presence around the rim was missed in the last few games, but the Pack have three other players who are averaging more than five rebounds a game and double figures in scoring. Sophomore Jakia Brown-Turner is scoring 16.4 points in conference play, and she’s averaging 51.8% shooting from the field over the last four games.
For a deeper dive into tonight’s marquee matchup (or any matchup!), check out our Lobo’s Look for the game.
What We’re Working On
Today is the day. While last week was full of reported big free agent moves, teams can officially begin to sign players to new contracts today. As official signings from teams roll in, we’ll be updating our live 2021 free agency tracker. We’ll also be updating our salary cap team sheets as we confirm new contracts. (In addition to individual team salary cap pages, we have now added a summary salary cap page with highlights for all 12 teams along with key CBA numbers, dates, and terms for easy reference.) You can also check out the Her Hoop Stats WNBA free agency resource guide that includes all of this information, as well as links to offseason previews for all 12 teams, mock offseason coverage, and everything you need to know about the CBA.
The newest episode of Unplugged dropped last night (!!) just in time for your Monday morning. Megan Gauer and Richard Cohen dives into all the WNBA free agency news from last week, how the major moves will affect each team, and the latest happenings in the NCAA. You can listen to the podcast by subscribing on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Play, or wherever you get your podcasts. Already a subscriber? Then please rate and review us so more people can learn about our work.
On Friday, Gabe Ibrahim broke down some of his first impressions of the initial marquee free agent reports, including Candace Parker and Chelsea Gray leaving Los Angeles and the intriguing trio that is expected to join Minnesota.
After Mark Davis purchased the Las Vegas Aces and reports surfaced that the Atlanta Dream are close to being sold, Jacob Mox and Aaron Barzilai took on a fun project of estimating the potential value of WNBA franchises. With no publicly reported data on WNBA team valuations, they look at a theoretical reasonable range based on information that is available and financial analysis techniques.
Heaven Hill broke down some film of Andra Espinoza-Hunter’s game and how she has found her perfect fit with the Seton Hall Pirates.
Christy Winters-Scott and Gabe discussed WNBA free agency rumors, UConn’s SEC schedule, and the Big Ten in the latest episode of Courtside.
Other Recommended Reading
For The Next, Jackie Powell wrote about Layshia Clarendon’s top surgery and the support they received after announcing it publicly.
For the Chicago Sun-Times, Madeline Kenney wrote about Candace Parker’s homecoming and how the Chicago Sky immediately jumped into title contention.
For the Cincinnati Enquirer, Keith Jenkin wrote about IImar’I Thomas’ phenomenal senior season and her climb to the top of the program’s record books.
Before You Go
When has the sports page in your local paper looked like this? This is how women’s sports should be covered.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram.