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With Lauren Cox back in the lineup, Baylor might be the best team in women’s college basketball this season. On Thursday night, they have the chance to prove it. The Lady Bears will take on UConn in their final non-conference match up of the 2019–20 season.
The stakes are high for both teams in this one — barring how the rest of the season goes, it could be the difference-maker between ending up on the No. 1 or No. 2 seed line for the NCAA tournament. Still, it’s arguably a more important game for Baylor than for UConn. Sure, running the table in the Big 12 would hold more weight to the selection committee than the Huskies closing out their stint in the AAC undefeated. But UConn still has multiple non-conference opportunities to prove its status, with games against Tennessee, Oregon and South Carolina on the horizon.
For Baylor, UConn will be by far the toughest test they’ll face until March. Adding it as a win, alongside a neutral court win over Indiana and just one loss so far, sans Lauren Cox, to South Carolina provides a strong case for a second consecutive year as a No. 1 seed.
There’s no question that this matchup has postseason implications, but what needs to happen on the court for each team to come out on top? Here’s a look at some of the key numbers to keep an eye on:
Baylor ranks #1 in Her Hoop Stats defensive rating
True to their identity, the Lady Bears rank as the top defensive team in the country thus far, despite Kalani Brown graduating last year. That’s an impressive feat, even more so because they’ve achieved their top-ranked status with defensive player of the year candidate Lauren Cox on the floor for just four of their 12 games.
There’s no shortage of impressive defensive stats for the Lady Bears this season. They have held their opponents to just 0.56 points per play (1st in the nation), a 0.34 assist-to-turnover ratio (1st in the nation) and a 30.1% field goal percentage (3rd in the nation). However, those stats are somewhat inflated by the Lady Bears’ strength of schedule. They’ve played six teams ranked below 250 (out of 351 teams) in Her Hoop Stats rating.
With Cox back on the floor, will Baylor’s defense look elite against a top opponent? Thursday will be the ultimate test.
Four Huskies have scored 80% of UConn’s points this season
UConn’s stars — Crystal Dangerfield, Megan Walker, Olivia Nelson-Ododa and Christyn Williams — have accounted for nearly 80% of the Huskies’ points this season. They, of course, will garner the bulk of Baylor’s defensive attention on Thursday night. The key for the Huskies in this one may be who can step up to be a fifth offensive weapon.
Freshmen Anna Makurat and Aubrey Griffin have demonstrated the ability to be just that at times this season. But the answer against the Lady Bears might be Kyla Irwin. Irwin is a bit of statistical anomaly this season. She leads the nation with 1.89 points per scoring attempt but ranks in the bottom one percent of players in the country for usage (at just 8.1 percent). Part of that comes from Irwin knowing her role on this UConn team extremely well. The senior has made countless big plays on the defensive end, but tends to leave the offense to the Huskies’ four stars unless she’s wide open.
But, perhaps, Irwin is being limited by playing within her role so well. She’s coming off an excellent game at SMU where she was perfect from the floor, with a career high 14 points and 7 assists. If the Huskies run a few more plays through her, they’d likely only sacrifice a small margin of efficiency for an uptick in usage. For a veteran player, who will be more comfortable than the freshmen in the arena environment Thursday night is bound to bring, Irwin could be the offensive answer for the Huskies.
Expect a battle on the glass
The Lady Bears are once again among the best in the country on the offensive glass, rebounding 42.5% of their own misses on the season (7th in the country). For a team that leads the nation in field goal percentage at 51.9%, second-chance points are deadly for their opponents.
But Baylor is not the only offensive rebounding threat in this one. UConn might not rank in the top 10 in the nation, but the Huskies have improved dramatically on the offensive glass so far this season. Their offensive rebounding rate has been over 41% in five of their last six games, including two games over 50%.
The team that does a better job of keeping their opponent off the offensive glass in this contest will have the edge.
Whichever way the final score falls, this anticipated matchup should live up to the hype. Only one team will come away with a signature win on their resume for March, but this game will give us a better idea where both programs stand two months out from the NCAA tournament.
UConn and Baylor face off Thursday (January 9th) at 7 p.m. ET. The top-10 match up will be televised on ESPN.
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