Week 14 with the Pac-12: Who Will Get a Bye in the Conference Tournament?
The Pac-12 is heading into the final two weeks. Who will end up in the top four at the end of the regular season?
It may seem like the season just started yesterday, but Pac-12 play has only two more weeks left. That means that each team has four games left to play to solidify their seeding in the Pac-12 conference tournament.
Seeding in the Pac-12 is important because the top four teams receive byes for the first round of the Tournament. Although the league has a built-in rest day on the Saturday before the final, it’s still a tough ask to win four games in five days to take the conference’s automatic bid for the NCAA Tournament.
Stanford will end up with the No. 1 seed unless they somehow drop off the face of the planet. The Cardinal are 12-0 in league play with games at Oregon, at Oregon State, against Washington State, and against Washington left to play. They only need to go 1-3 to put the ribbon on the top seed. They have only lost three games all season despite playing one of the toughest schedules in the country.
The second seed is more open. Oregon was selected to finish there in the preseason poll, and they occupy that place by half a game over Arizona. The Wildcats were definitely not picked to finish second. They weren’t even picked third. The media and coaches had them pegged for fifth. (Don’t blame me, though. I had them third on my ballot.)
Oregon has the tougher schedule than Arizona to end the season with games against Stanford, at Colorado, and at Utah still to be played. They also host California, but that does not appear to be a threatening game for the Ducks on paper. The Wildcats are set to travel to Washington and Washington State, then return home to finish against UCLA and USC.
According to our model, the three highest-ranked teams on either team’s schedule all fall on the Ducks’ slate. Stanford (2), Utah (37), and Colorado (52) all outrank Arizona’s toughest game which is UCLA (62). To make things more difficult for Oregon, two of those three come on the road at the Mountain schools. The swing through Salt Lake City and Boulder constitutes the toughest road trip in the Pac-12, logistically speaking.
That doesn’t mean things won't get difficult for Arizona. The Wildcats just lost to No. 58 Arizona State on Friday and were pushed at home in the return game on Sunday. They also have already lost to USC once this year, albeit on the road without two starters.
Washington State still has a chance to take over the No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the league as well. Teams will play different numbers of conference games again this season due to the pandemic. The Cougars’ 8-5 conference record gives them a 61.5 percent winning percentage. The Wildcats at 8-4 stand at 66.7 percent.
The Cougars control their own destiny as far as moving up in the pecking order. If they can win out, it would mean beating Arizona. The 70.6 winning percentage would best the Wildcats’ 68.75 percent even if Arizona went 3-1.
To overtake Oregon at No 2, WSU needs to win out and have the Ducks lose at least two games. That would give the Cougs a 70.6 winning percentage to Oregon’s 64.7 percent. If the Ducks only lost once and Washington State won out, both would end at 12-5. Oregon would take the tiebreaker based on winning the two teams’ only head-to-head game this season. Grabbing the No. 2 or No. 3 seed means avoiding Stanford in the semifinals of the Pac-12 Tournament.
But going 4-0 will be difficult for WSU. The Cougars still must hold off Utah, UCLA, and Arizona State for the No. 4 seed. The Utes have a 54.5 winning percentage heading into the final two weeks. The best they can finish is 66.7 percent.
The Bruins are at .500 with a 6-6 record heading into their final four conference games. They have already been forced to forfeit to Oregon because they pulled out of a game for non-COVID-19 related injuries. They lost a nonconference game against the Ducks on Wednesday that was added to the schedule after the forfeit was imposed by the league, but it does not affect conference standings. The best UCLA can end in conference play is 10-6, good for a 62.5 winning percentage.
Utah stands at 6-5, meaning their best record possible is 10-5. That would put them at 66.7 for the conference season.
ASU has missed the most conference games of the top teams, standing at 4-5 with wins over Arizona and Oregon. They, too, have a forfeit on their record after failing to show for a makeup game against California this week.
The Sun Devils ran into problems with their charter plane out of the Phoenix area on Tuesday afternoon and didn’t make it to Berkeley for a Wednesday afternoon game. The forfeit does not affect their overall record, but it gives them an extra Pac-12 loss and gave Cal its second conference win of the season.
The forfeit sets them back in their attempt to get a first-round bye. It is especially unfortunate since ASU has been playing very well of late and had a good chance at another victory against Cal. Now, the Sun Devils must win out to finish with a 66.7 winning percentage.
Very little is settled in the Pac-12. Who will get the job done?
Underrated Player of the Week
If the Cougars get it done, underrated player Ula Motuga may be the one who makes the difference. When you think about who leads Washington State in 3-point percentage, names like Charlisse Leger-Walker, Krystal Leger-Walker, or even Johanna Teder may come to mind. You would be wrong if you chose anyone but Motuga.
The senior forward out of Logan, Queensland, Australia is not just leading her team in 3-point percentage this season. She’s leading the Pac-12 with a 47.8 percent success rate from beyond the arc. That is almost 20 percentage points higher than any of her first three seasons.
Motuga is in the top 20 in the Pac-12 in seven different categories across both offense and defense: minutes played (12th), minutes per game (12th), 3-point percent (1st), offensive rebounds (17th), defensive rebounds (15th), total rebounds (15th), and rebounds per game (15th). She is also 26th in 3-pointers attempted.
Of the regular rotation players, Motuga also leads the team in overall shooting percentage. She is connecting on 46.3 percent of her shots from the floor. She may not be taking as many shots as the Leger-Walker sisters or Teder, but she is taking the right shots for her and making them.
Motuga is also second on the team in rebounds with 6.1 per game. She trails only center Bella Murekatete in rebounding for the Cougs.
If Washington State wants to get back to the NCAA Tournament for the second straight season, the players need to know their roles and fulfill them. Motuga has done a fine job of that so far this season.
Voting for the Best
Player of the Week
My vote: Jordyn Jenkins, USC
Winner: Jordyn Jenkins, USC
Jenkins had a week worthy of Pac-12 Player of the Week last week. She followed it up with another one, which says a lot about the Women of Troy’s great sophomore. Jenkins averaged a double-double over three games last week with 22.7 points and 10.7 rebounds per game against Utah, Washington, and Washington State. Of the league’s sophomores, Stanford’s Cameron Brink is the only one who I rate above Jenkins this season. If she were on another team, this might not be her first weekly award this season.
Freshman of the Week
My vote: Rayah Marshall, USC
Winner: Gianna Kneepkens, Utah
The voting options were light this week. Only Kneepkens, Marshall, Stanford’s Kiki Iriafen, and Cal’s Jayda Curry were nominated for Freshman of the Week. At this point, the Pac-12 Freshman of the Year award is almost assuredly down to Kneepkens and Curry with Curry having the edge. I still have a lot of appreciation for what Marshall brings to the table for USC, though.
Last week, Marshall averaged 12.3 points and 4.7 rebounds over three games. That was slightly less than Kneepkens did, but the Utah guard had the advantage of an overtime game against Cal where she had much bigger numbers than in her other two games. She also played over five minutes a game more than Marshall, giving her more opportunity to gather counting stats. There wasn’t much between the players, all things considered, so I went with the one who had to gather her stats in fewer minutes.