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Just eight teams remain in the hunt for a national title, including all four of the No. 1 seeds and defending champions LSU. We’re in for two great days of basketball to determine which teams advance to the Final Four, so let’s talk about it.
Below, I’ve taken a look at each Elite Eight game. Who are the stars? What should we expect? How do these teams match up?
Oregon State vs. South Carolina
Her Hoop Stats Predicted Winner: South Carolina (89.0%)
The Gamecocks continued their march to the national title with a narrow four-point win over Indiana in the Sweet 16. It looked like South Carolina was going to run away with it early, but the Hoosiers tightened up and got things close.
Despite the fact that no one has beaten them yet this season, I don’t necessarily believe Dawn Staley’s team is unbeatable. Three of the last five games for South Carolina have been relatively close, including a one-point win over Tennessee during the SEC Tournament. Yes, this is the most complete team in the country, ranking third in offensive rating and first in defensive rating, but the Gamecocks struggle at times to hit free throws, which could cost them in a close game.
And Oregon State’s good! The Beavers shoot the ball extremely well, ranking 15th in the country in field-goal percentage and knocking down 35.8% of their threes. They pass the ball well, ranking 19th in assisted shot rate, and the defense has shown some good rim protection, averaging 4.6 blocks per game. Per CBB Analytics, the Beavers lead the nation in opponent FG% at the rim.
But it’s just hard to imagine the Beavers actually beating the Gamecocks on Sunday. Their defense has played well in the tournament, but I’m not sold on them being able to defeat a South Carolina team that can beat you in a myriad of ways.
Justin’s Pick: South Carolina
Her Hoop Stats Predicted Winner: Texas (75.3%)
Aziaha James scored 29 points on Friday to lead the Wolfpack to a 77-67 win over Stanford, sending the No. 2 seed home. NC State was able to get Stanford in foul trouble, with Cameron Brink limited to just under 24 minutes of action. The Cardinal had a +7.0 net rating with Brink on the floor Friday night, but that fell to -44.0 when Brink was on the bench. NC State took advantage of the foul trouble and shot lights out with Brink sidelined.
As for Texas, the Longhorns’ victory over Gonzaga never felt in doubt. The Longhorns won that one by 22, and now have won all three tournament games by double figures. Texas is red hot, posting a +29.3 net rating over its last six games. At the time I’m writing this, that ranks behind only UConn, which could change depending on how Duke-UConn ends up.
One interesting note for Texas, which I view as a good sign for the Elite Eight, is that the team is playing this well despite Madison Booker scoring in single digits in two of the three NCAA Tournament games. She had 21 in the win over Alabama, but took a backseat against Gonzaga, scoring just six points. Aaliyah Moore led the way with 16. That just goes to show how deep this Longhorns team is.
Justin’s Pick: Texas
Her Hoop Stats Predicted Winner: Iowa (66.3%)
We’ve got a rematch of last year’s national championship on tap here, as Iowa looks to avenge its 102-85 loss to the Tigers.
Iowa’s better on both sides of the ball than it was last season, giving the Hawkeyes plenty of hope that they can knock off LSU this time around. It also helps that LSU has seen its numbers decline this year. This should be a closer game.
Still, I have reservations about Iowa’s defense being able to slow down the Tigers. Iowa ranks 201st in defensive rating, something that hasn’t necessarily hurt the Hawkeyes because they are capable of outscoring nearly every opponent. But if the opposing defense can make things messy, anything can happen — in the second round, we saw West Virginia play the Hawkeyes close all game long because it was able to limit the Iowa offense.
Justin’s Pick: LSU
Her Hoop Stats Predicted Winner: UConn (78.8%)
The computers and the data seem to be favoring UConn in this one, but I’m just not sure I trust this Huskies team. All five of its losses were to teams that were seeded third or better in this year’s NCAA Tournament and all five losses were by double figures.
On Monday, they’ll play No. 1 seed USC. These are the kind of games that this year’s UConn team just hasn’t had the firepower for. Sure, Paige Bueckers is an elite offensive player, but she can’t do everything. She and Aaliyah Edwards feel like the only consistent sources of offense. Ashlynn Shade is a solid third option, but this team really could use a healthy Azzi Fudd for games like this. KK Arnold and Nika Mühl are great players, but it’s hard to know what you’ll get each night from them.
The Trojans enter this contest on an eight-game win streak. They just narrowly avoided an upset against Baylor on Saturday, but they still looked strong. JuJu Watkins might already be the best player in college basketball as a freshman, someone who can take a game over on offense while also blocking shots and flying around on defense. USC isn’t getting the respect it deserves.
Justin’s Pick: USC
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