Revisiting the 2022 NCAA Women's Basketball Title Contenders
South Carolina is still on top, but who else is in the picture?
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As the calendar has flipped to 2022, we’re now just two months away from March. With nearly two months of the season also complete and the countdown to the postseason accelerating, the title picture is coming into focus. Let’s examine who the top teams and title contenders are as we start the new year.
South Carolina is still on top
The championship still runs through the Gamecocks. However, last week’s loss to Mizzou proves that South Carolina is more vulnerable than they may have appeared early on in the season, and the gap between the Gamecocks and the next tier of teams is closing. Still, South Carolina boasts wins over four of the other top teams in the country, and despite an extremely difficult schedule, the Gamecocks are holding their opponents to under 54 points per game.
Where South Carolina excels the most is in its ability to bully teams in the paint on both ends of the floor. On the defensive side, they’ve held their opponents to 36 percent shooting on two-point attempts (7th in the nation) and average 8.5 blocks per game, the most among DI teams this year. Offensively, South Carolina rebounds over 44 percent of its own misses (also first in the nation) and has scored nearly 50 percent of its half-court offense points around the basket (per Synergy). If you don’t slow down Aliyah Boston and company inside, the Gamecocks are very difficult to beat.
Stanford and NC State aren’t far behind
While South Carolina has been dominating on the defensive end, NC State has been dominating offensively, averaging over 80 points per game and shooting over 48 percent from the floor (third in the nation). What’s most striking about the Wolfpack’s offense is the balanced attack. Five players are contributing over eight points per game, and both of the team’s leading scorers Elissa Cunane (13.1 PPG) and Diamond Johnson (12.8 PPG off the bench) are averaging just 23 minutes a game. NC State has also gotten contributions from reigning ACC sixth player of the year Jada Boyd, Mississippi State transfer Madison Hayes and junior Camille Hobby off the bench, giving them enough depth to contend for a title.
After stumbling some to start the season, Stanford is starting to find their footing. The Cardinal are still feeling the loss of their senior point guard Kiana Williams from last year’s squad, which has been obvious in their losses thus far. While they were able to keep their latest loss close with South Carolina, their 20 turnovers ultimately were too much to overcome. On the season, they’re averaging 2.5 more turnovers per game that they did last season.
Still, the Cardinal boasts impressive depth (as they did last year), significant length at almost every position, and the ability to knock down the three ball. After struggling with their three-point shooting a bit to start the season, Stanford has knocked down seven or more triples in all but one of its six outings since losing to South Florida. They need to clean up the turnovers if they hope to defend their title in Minneapolis but still have two months until March to work through their issues handling the ball.
So, what about UConn?
While UConn may not look like one of the top contenders in their current state, it also doesn’t feel right to lump them into the next group with the expectation that Paige Bueckers will return by the NCAA tournament. The Huskies have dropped two games in the absence of Bueckers (as well as Azzi Fudd and Nika Mühl who averaged double-digit minutes prior to being sidelined), but were competitive with Louisville before the holiday break.
Prior to her injury, Bueckers was scoring or assisting on over 50 percent of the Huskies’ baskets. If UConn can get more consistent contributions from the depth of its roster while without her, the Huskies will be one of the top contenders in the country when they add Bueckers back.
Who else is in the picture?
The top of the Big Ten has not disappointed thus far, and Maryland and Indiana both have the potential to make it to Minneapolis in April. The Terps dealt with a multitude of injuries early on, causing them to drop some early games against top opponents. Since then, they’ve been competitive with both South Carolina and Indiana. It feels like Maryland is trending in the right direction on the heels of Angel Reese emerging as a star. However, the question remains if Maryland can get enough done on the defensive end to beat other contending programs. When their offense was stalled by South Carolina and Indiana, the Terps couldn’t pull out the victory. They haven’t won a game scoring under 70 points this season. Perhaps more concerning, they’ve been held to that number four times this season after only being limited to less than 70 twice last year.
As for Indiana, the biggest question mark surrounds their ability to contend inside. Mackenzie Holmes has excelled for the Hoosiers against smaller lineups but struggled in Indiana’s loss to Stanford against the likes of Cameron Brink. How Holmes fares against some of the Big Ten’s best post players (e.g., Naz Hillmon, Monika Czinano) will be important in evaluating how deep of a run this Indiana team can make in March.
Additionally, Louisville and Tennessee have both impressed on the defensive end this season, ranking second and fifth in our Her Hoop Stats defensive ratings, respectively. However, both teams’ offense leaves something to be desired and raises the question, ‘Can these teams score enough to win a championship?’ Louisville’s Hailey Van Lith has struggled with her shot this season(38% from the field including 23% from behind the arc) but has come up big for the Cardinals in crunch time. For Tennessee, Rae Burrell is slowly returning to the lineup from injury and could be the answer the Vols are looking for on the offensive end.
Undefeated Arizona also deserves a mention here, although I am not yet convinced they are part of this group. We simply haven’t seen enough of the Wildcats against top-tier opponents to really measure how they stand amongst the best teams. Arizona’s overtime win over Louisville in November is a good data point, but the Wildcats haven’t played a ranked team since and haven’t faced a team that ranks in the top 50 of our Her Hoop Stats ratings since their November 26th win over DePaul. However, the Wildcats do rank 7th in our Her Hoop Stats rating, so I’ll be watching closely when they face Stanford in Palo Alto in their only matchup of the season along with their home and away series against Oregon.
In addition to the upcoming matchup between Stanford and Arizona, Indiana and Maryland are set to cross paths again in the Big Ten. Louisville and NC State will meet in ACC play, as well as South Carolina and Tennessee in SEC play. The Huskies also have non-conference matchups ahead with the Gamecocks and Lady Vols, leaving plenty of opportunities for us to see these teams in action against one another as the regular season plays out. Selection Sunday is still over two months away, so there is still plenty of time for teams to play their way onto or off of this list, or into the top tier.
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