The Weekly Roundup: A Star is Reborn, Double-Digit Net Margins, and Brionna Jones for 2022 All-Star
Breaking down Sabrina Ionescu’s resurgence, what double-digit net margins tell us, and the All-Star campaign for Brionna Jones
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This season is absolutely flying by. I mean, we’re only two months away from the end of the regular season. I should have expected this. After all, WNBA seasons during FIBA World Cup years take place over a shorter timespan. To paraphrase Ferris Bueller, the 2022 WNBA season moves pretty fast. If you don’t stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it. In short, take the time to really appreciate what the league has to offer. One of those things was Sunday’s four-game slate - all great contests, all decided by single digits.
Indiana pulled out a hotly-contested 84-80 road win against a Minnesota squad missing Kayla McBride (foot injury) and Sylvia Fowles (out indefinitely with a cartilage injury in her right knee). Indiana was led by rookie NaLyssa Smith, who dropped a career-high 21 points to go along with 14 boards.
In a stretch reminiscent of the 2021 Chicago Sky (a seven-game losing streak followed by a seven-game winning streak), Phoenix has suddenly won three straight after a seven-game skid; their latest triumph a 99-90 overtime win at Washington behind Skylar Diggins-Smith’s 27 points and five dimes.
The Storm are now on a three-game winning streak of their own after coming away with a 94-89 win in Arlington against Dallas. The league leader in points and steals, Breanna Stewart added to her MVP campaign with a 25-point, eight-rebound, four-assist, and three-steal effort. The Wings were without star guard Arike Ogunbowale, who got ejected at the end of the first half for kicking a ball into the stands. Now, when I first heard about this on social media, I envisioned a Nick Nolte-esque punt like his character in the movie Blue Chips. The reality was a bit tamer, though still grounds for ejection regardless of officials’ antipathy to soccer players.
A last-second Courtney Vandersloot triple helped Chicago overcome Sabrina Ionescu’s second career triple-double and escape Barclays Center with an 88-86 victory. Sloot and Emma Meesseman led the Sky in scoring with 20 points while each recording a double-double. As if a triple-double and a last-second game-winning shot weren’t enough, Sunday’s contest also included this incredible no-look dime by Marine Johannès.
Player of the Week: Sabrina Ionescu
This Player of the Week decision was brutal, and unlike the WNBA, I don’t have the luxury of awarding this honor to a player in each conference. I narrowed it down to A’ja Wilson, Breanna Stewart, and Sabrina Ionescu. Wilson’s 35-point, 11-rebound, four-block, and two-steal effort Saturday versus Los Angeles was one of, if not the, best performances of the season. However, it was just one game; the brilliance of Stewie and Ionescu occurred over a three-game span. Stewart averaged 25.3 points, 8.7 boards, and 1.7 steals during Seattle’s 3-0 week, a seven-day span worthy of Player of the Week honors almost any time. However, Ionescu’s recent scoring explosion, her role in turning around a disastrous start to the season for New York, and yes, her triple-double on Sunday against Chicago clinched her as my pick for Player of the Week.
The third-year guard averaged 22 points, nine rebounds, and nine assists last week, leading New York to a 2-1 record (and a Courtney Vandersloot three away from a 3-0 mark). Her magnum opus occurred on Sunday when she needed just three quarters to record her second career triple-double, tied with Sheryl Swoopes, Candace Parker, and Courtney Vandersloot for the most all-time. Ionescu is the fastest of the quartet to multiple career triple-doubles.
Last week was impressive, but it was simply a continuation of Ionescu’s outstanding play in June. Her passing, rebounding, and shooting have all dramatically improved this month. Most notably, after averaging just 12.6 points per game in May, Ionescu is dropping nearly double that total per night in June.
New York looked bad last month. Historically bad. Second-worst net rating in WNBA history bad. The Liberty have since gone 4-2 en route to posting the league’s best net rating so far in June. Crystal Dangerfield shouldering the point guard responsibilities, Han Xu’s contributions off the bench, and yes, playing a weak slate of opponents have all played key roles in this turnaround.
However, the lion’s share of the credit goes to Ionescu herself. As our own Richard Cohen explained in the June 2 edition of WNBA Dissected, the Liberty’s success this season hinges on Ionescu elevating her play. She’s done just that over the past six games, albeit against teams with a current combined record of 32-56 (36% winning percentage). The combined record of the opponents remaining on New York’s schedule is 167-125 (57% winning percentage). Whether Ionescu can continue her superb play against a tougher slate of opponents will be a fascinating subplot to watch as the rest of the season unfolds.
Stat of the Week: Double-digit net margins
A team’s net margin is its margin of victory per 100 possessions. Really good teams have a (positive) double-digit net margin. Only 12 teams since 2010 have finished a season with a net margin above 10.0. How did they do in the postseason? 10 of them made it to the WNBA Finals and seven ultimately raised the championship trophy. Las Vegas (11.6) and Connecticut (10.5) are the only teams this season with a double-digit net rating (Chicago is a distant third at 6.0).
So, Aces and Sun fans should be feeling pretty darn good about their respective team’s championship prospects, right? Let’s just say they should be cautiously optimistic. Teams with a double-digit net rating are the cream of the WNBA crop, and (hot take alert) the best teams have the best chances of making it to and winning the WNBA Finals. However, the season is barely a third over. A lot can change the championship picture over the remainder of the season (e.g., injuries, other teams catching fire, etc.). Also, the stat above is partially reflective of the massive advantage the top two seeds enjoyed under the old playoff format (that ran from 2016 to 2021). The new playoff format, which eliminates all byes, reduces the likelihood that the regular season’s best teams will be one of the two teams left standing come mid-September.
Oh, who you might ask are the two teams since 2010 with a double-digit net margin to miss the WNBA Finals? None other than the Las Vegas Aces and the Connecticut Sun last season.
Brionna Jones for All-Star 2022
If I asked you who has the most win shares in the WNBA, you might say Breanna Stewart, A’ja Wilson, Kelsey Plum, Jonquel Jones, or Jackie Young. Those are all great guesses, but it might surprise you to know that Brionna Jones’ 2.9 win shares lead the league. And yet, last week when the WNBA released the results of the first round of fan voting for July’s All-Star Game, the reigning Most Improved Player was not among the top 30 vote-getters.
I readily concede the following: 1) win shares is not the end all be all and that there are other valid measures of a player’s contributions, and 2) a fan vote is not a precise ranking of the players who have compiled the best seasons. Still, I can’t help but think Brionna Jones deserves a little more recognition given how instrumental she’s been in Connecticut’s 10-4 start. She leads the W in offensive rating, averaging 132.5 points per 100 individual possessions. For context, only Lauren Jackson, Nneka Ogwumike, and Alysha Clark have recorded a higher individual offensive rating in a single season. Her 3.2 offensive rebounds per game also lead the league and are one of the main reasons why Connecticut is on pace to post the W’s highest single-season offensive rebounding rate in a decade.
I guess uber-efficiency and offensive rebounding dominance aren’t the flashiest of traits, but that doesn’t mean they should be overlooked.
Her Hoop Stats Power Rankings
Here are this week’s power rankings from the Her Hoop Stats team. As always, these are based on the criterion of who would beat whom in a hypothetical neutral court matchup today.
WNBA schedule this week (All times Eastern)
Here is a full listing of this week’s games, start times, and where you can catch the action.
Her Hoop Stats content in case you missed it
Hello everybody! Christy Winters Scott and Gabe Ibrahim are back with a new episode of Courtside, where they touched on The Athletic’s recent report on WNBA expansion, the Sparks decision to fire Derek Fisher, the Atlanta-New York trade, and much more.
The 2014 draft class included multiple future WNBA champions and a WNBA All-Star MVP. How would you redraft this class if given the chance? Dano Mataya and Ice Young explored this topic in the latest episode of Dice it Up.
Over the 2020 and 2021 seasons, the Indiana Fever compiled a 12-42 record. What went wrong and have recent moves made by the franchise placed it on an upward trajectory? Alford Corriette broke all of this down in his two-part series about the Fever’s struggles and effort to rebuild (Part 1 and Part 2).
The Storm went 6-5 through their first 11 games, tied for the franchise’s worst start since the arrival of Breanna Stewart in 2016. James Hyman analyzed whether there’s cause for concern in Seattle or if it’s just a case of bad luck.
From the continuation of the three-point revolution to record-high assist rates, Robert Mummery explored several early-season statistical trends in the W.
In this week’s WNBA Dissected, Richard Cohen provided interesting stats for half of the league’s teams (the remainder coming in this week’s column) and showed how Minnesota’s Bridget Carleton cleverly prevented New York from running an elevator doors set for Rebecca Allen.
Basketball Chess and Carolyn Smalls compiled a series of clips displaying Emily Engstler’s arsenal of weapons on both sides of the ball. Special thanks to The Dunker Spot’s Nekias Duncan for supplying the audio!
Other recommended content
They’re three of the best players in league history, and their WNBA careers might all be coming to an end after this season. For ESPN, Mechelle Voepel detailed how Sylvia Fowles, Diana Taurasi, and Sue Bird have rewritten the WNBA record books.
For The Next, Jackie Powell broke down the trade that sent AD to Atlanta and cleared the way for New York to sign French guard Marine Johannès to a rest-of-the-season contract.
Who will replace Derek Fisher as Los Angeles’ head coach? The Athletic’s Chantel Jennings offered six potential hires.
The Athletic’s Richard Deitsch described why “Dream On,” a film that examines the 1996 U.S. women’s basketball team, is the best sports documentary he’s watched in 2022. The film airs tomorrow at 8 p.m. Eastern on ESPN (and will be made available on ESPN+ immediately after).
The Next’s Jenn Hatfield described how Mystics wing Kennedy Burke has elevated her game this season and raised her voice on social issues.
On Saturday, the Women’s Basketball Hall of Fame inducted eight members, including DeLisha Milton-Jones and Debbie Antonelli. From Milton-Jones’ near-death experience during childhood to Antonelli finding a way to get Ohio State women’s basketball games on television, the Knox News Sentinel’s Cora Hall recounted their remarkable journeys to Saturday night’s induction ceremony.
Trivia question of the week
First, here’s the answer to last week’s trivia question:
Sue Bird, Ticha Penicheiro, and Courtney Vandersloot are currently first, second, and fourth in career assists. It only makes sense that they occupy the top three spots on the list of number of games (including playoffs) with at least 10 assists - who is fourth on this list (number of games with more than 10 assists)?
Answer: Teresa Weatherspoon. Despite being a bit further down on the career assists list (14th), T-Spoon had 22 double-digit assist games.
And now, here’s this week’s question:
A whopping seven of the top ten players on the career free-throw percentage list (minimum 500 attempts) are active. Coming in at No. 2 on the list and with a career free-throw percentage of 89.7%, who is the highest-ranking non-active player?
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.
Sue Bird