Seattle Storm Early Season Breakdown
How some of the Storm's recent struggles can be attributed to variance
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Statistics accurate as of June 10th
The Seattle Storm are off to a semi-rocky start to the 2022 season, at least by their championship-caliber standards. With six wins and five losses, the Storm have tied their worst record through eleven games since 2016, Breanna Stewart’s first season with the team. More concerning is the quality of their offense in those losses. Seattle has already scored fewer than 65 points in two losses, including just 51 points against the Dallas Wings. They only had one such lackluster performance all of last year and none during the shortened bubble season the year prior.
In Head Coach Noelle Quinn’s defense, the Storm roster has been a revolving door due largely to health and safety protocols. Stewart has missed two games while Sue Bird and Ezi Magbegor have each missed three. However, for a team that has many of the same pieces as last year, one would hope there would be enough continuity to withstand the occasional absence.
So is it time to panic? To trade for a younger role player now that their average age has eclipsed 30? In my opinion—and, more importantly, the opinion of the statistics—the Seattle Storm are completely fine.
When it comes to evaluating a team at the beginning of the season, it is important to focus on the process rather than the results. From an analytical standpoint, the Storm are doing a lot of things that are usually highly correlated with winning.
Let’s start with the defense. Seattle remains the cream of the crop at limiting easy shot attempts. So far this season they have a top three defensive rating compared to all teams over the past five years at 91.3. They lead the league in block percentage, are second in steal percentage, and have the lowest foul rate. The one knock on the Storm related to defense is their defensive rebounding percentage, which is currently below the league average. Mercedes Russell should help in this area now that she has returned from her non-basketball injury, though it is clear from her first few games back that Russell is still not 100%.
With the defense performing at an elite level, the problem must be offense. Except from a process perspective, the Storm are making many correct basketball decisions, just failing to execute at the expected rate.
For example, Seattle is second in the league in percentage of shot attempts that are three-pointers. Assuming you are not chucking up contested shots from deep on a regular basis, an emphasis on three-point shooting rather than mid-range shots is indicative of a team that understands the basics of efficient shot selection. However, with increased three-point shooting comes a spotlight on variance.
Within small sample sizes, like the first 11 games of a season, there can be a larger variance in results even when execution is optimal. This applies to a team’s three point shooting in a single game. In Seattle’s two abysmal offensive performances mentioned previously, the Storm shot 8-for-31 against the Mercury (25.8%) and 5-for-29 against the Wings (17.2%) from beyond the arc, respectively.
Stewart and Jewell Loyd are undoubtedly two of the best players in the world. In their loss to the Wings, both players shot just 2-for-8 from the three-point line. While the first instinct might be to give credit to the Dallas defense, I went back and watched all 12 of their combined missed shots. Nine of the attempts were either wide open or barely contested. That is the beauty of variance! Even the best players in the WNBA will miss threes more often than they make them.
Luckily for Seattle, they are not the only team subject to the laws of randomness. Look no further than Tuesday’s win over Atlanta that saw the Dream shoot just 2-for-19 (10.5%) on three-point attempts. While the Storm perimeter defenders impact that number, Atlanta simply missed more shots than you would expect on average.
Now, there are ways to combat potential off shooting nights, and that is where Seattle has struggled early in the season. Free throw percentage has low in-game variance and generating free throw attempts is one of the most efficient things a team can do, but Seattle is second-to-last in free throw rate.
Both Stewart and Loyd are shooting better than 85% from the charity stripe this year, meaning that Seattle’s stars would benefit even more than the average player from an increase in foul calls given their proficiency from the line. Of course, you do not get to pick and choose when to get fouled, but from watching the Storm play this year, there could certainly be a larger emphasis on drawing fouls inside by being more aggressive, whether in the post or while driving. This falls not only on the shoulders of Stewart and Loyd, who are both below their career average in free throw rate this season, but also on the Storm reserves, who are one of the worst bench units at getting to the line.
Another aspect that could mitigate the negative effects of a poor shooting night is pace. The Storm have a below league average pace of 81.1 possessions per 40 minutes, which isn’t abnormal as they have been one of the slower offensive teams over the past few seasons. However, with a dramatically increased three-point attempt rate, they might benefit from getting a few more possessions per game. The immediate repercussion would be how much does a higher offensive exertion affect their reliable defense, an experiment that Quinn could implement in intervals throughout a game.
All of that being said, Seattle has a very well-rounded offense. The league’s second-best turnover percentage and highest assist rate prove that the Storm are taking care of the ball and not getting sucked into isolation basketball.
Is it possible that the Storm players have gotten worse at shooting than they previously were and that the rest of the league has gotten better? Maybe. But it is more likely that the Storm are still championship contenders, and a few bad games to start the year does nothing to change that. Seattle begins a five-game road trip in Dallas tonight, and we will get a better idea if their early struggles were truly due to variance or if there is cause for concern in the 2022 season and beyond.
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