What’s Behind the Early Drop in Aliyah Boston’s Numbers?
Film breakdown of two trends worth watching for the nation’s top-ranked team
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Before the pandemic prematurely ended the 2019-20 college basketball season, many felt that South Carolina was on its way to the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament and a possible NCAA championship. Despite not getting that chance, the Gamecocks entered this season with similar expectations. Sure, they lost two starters to the first round of the WNBA draft in Ty Harris and Mikiah Herbert Harrigan. But the return of a star-studded sophomore class headlined by preseason AP All-American Aliyah Boston as well as upperclassmen and former top-25 recruits Destanni Henderson and LeLe Grissett was enough to land them the No. 1 ranking in the preseason AP poll.
Last year, Boston burst onto the scene with a points-rebounds-blocks triple-double in a dominant debut. She continued to own the paint in the coming weeks, posting 14.1 points per game on 73.0% shooting and averaging 3.1 blocks in the month of November.
This year’s early returns are a little bit different. Through three games, the national player of the year candidate has “struggled” to the tune of 11.0 points per game and 0.7 blocks while shooting a very human 50% (13-of-26). Is it fewer minutes? Well, Boston is averaging 25.2 minutes per game so far, up from 21.7 at this point last year. So we can rule that out. Is it just small sample size theater? Maybe — especially in this most unusual season. But a deeper look into the film suggests that there may be some trends to keep an eye on going forward.
Offense
Let’s cut to the chase here: Harris and Herbert Harrigan aren’t walking through that door. And while Dawn Staley certainly has the talent to replace them — she could put a whole lineup of top-15 recruits on the floor if she wanted to — she may not have the shooting. Herbert Harrigan and Harris ranked first and second, respectively, in three-point percentage among qualified Gamecocks last season. They combined to shoot exactly 40 percent from deep, forcing defenses to stay attached to them and guard Boston one-on-one in the post.
Watch these two post catches in last year’s game against Baylor. Once Boston puts the ball on the floor, Baylor sends one or two half-hearted digs her way, but they can’t fully double her on the catch.
Now let’s take a look at what she’s been seeing from defenses so far this season.
College of Charleston even doubled her without the ball.
If Boston’s numbers continue to underwhelm, it may not be due to poor play at all. With Zia Cooke as the lone returning player who is a true threat from distance, Staley’s squad is likely to face more packed-in defenses this season and will have to adjust to win a national championship.
There is potential for this problem to fix itself, however. Henderson has shown flashes of shooting ability — she shot 37.2% from three in her freshman season. That number dropped to 32.3% last year and is at 28.6% this year, though, so she’ll need to regain some of that early form to consistently draw defenses out. Brea Beal showed a willingness to shoot the three last year, attempting 45 of them in 33 games. While she only connected on 13 of those and has only taken one this season, she is another candidate for improved outside shooting as the season goes on.
Then, there’s Laeticia Amihere, the 6-foot-4 defensive force who has essentially doubled her minutes this season in Herbert Harrigan’s absence. She’s 0-for-2 from three early on, but last season she shot 7-of-13 from three. That’s not enough volume to force defenses to guard her on the perimeter, but it’s just enough to make Gamecock “fams” wonder if she can develop the range during her career. After all, Herbert Harrigan shot only 3-for-17 from deep in her first two seasons. Amihere and Beal are both career 53% free throw shooters, so short-term shooting expectations should be tempered. But there is hope in Staley’s track record as a player developer.
Should this trend continue and none of those players start knocking down shots this season, there’s some bad news and some good news for South Carolina. The bad news? Boston isn’t the only one whose life becomes more difficult. Henderson, Cooke, Grissett, or really anyone looking to drive the ball and score at the rim is going to have a much rougher go of it. Take this possession against Gonzaga on Sunday, for example. Cooke drives first but is cut off early by a help defender. She kicks it out to Amihere, who also drives and is forced into a tough two.
Last year, more often than not, either that first drive by Cooke would have been open or that kick out would have gone to Herbert Harrigan for a three. This year, there are whole villages in the paint waiting for South Carolina penetrators. On the very next possession, Boston and Amihere both stay on the same block for the whole possession, allowing one of their defenders to easily rotate over on the drive by Destiny Littleton.
The good news is that a former Gamecock has proven that this type of team can still be successful. A’ja Wilson faced incessant double- and triple-teams in the WNBA this season as defenses dared non-Kayla McBride Las Vegas guards to launch. The Aces didn’t win a title, but in earning the No. 1 seed and making the Finals, they proved a lot of doubters wrong.
If the early numbers are any indication, there are several similarities in the statistical profiles of the Aces and Gamecocks’ offenses. Both shun the arc — South Carolina’s three-point rate ranks 228th of 234 Division I teams that have played this season; the Aces were dead last in the WNBA in that category. South Carolina’s 0.97 points per play and 1.11 points per scoring attempt almost perfectly mirror those of the Aces (0.97 and 1.12). Both have mediocre assist rates (165th out of 234 and 7th out of 12), but both also take extremely good care of the ball (20th out of 234 in turnover rate and 2nd out of 12).
The Gamecocks may be able to mitigate their lack of shooting by following the Aces’ formula of getting stops and getting out in transition. The more easy fastbreak buckets they can get, the less their halfcourt offense matters. If an Aces-esque season is the floor for this year’s South Carolina team, no one needs to be hitting any panic buttons.
Defense
If drawing conclusions from three games’ worth of offensive numbers is an overreaction, drawing conclusions from three games’ worth of defensive numbers is one step short of nonsensical. So let’s do it.
Last season, Boston averaged over three blocks a game in November. Even if you take out the outlier of her monster 10-block opener, she still averaged over two. This year, she’s blocked two total shots through three contests. For the more analytically-inclined folks, her defensive rating and defensive win shares per 40 are both down as well. With all the grains of salt that come with three-game samples and early-season analysis following a covid-altered offseason, there may be another factor to partially point to aside from simple randomness.
In limited minutes, Amihere was quietly almost as efficient of a shot blocker as Boston last year, blocking 7.4% of opponents’ two-point attempts compared to 8.8% for Boston. That was when they rarely shared the floor. Boston’s frontcourt partner was most often the smaller and quicker Herbert Harrigan, who typically guarded the four position while Boston guarded the five. This season, Amihere and Boston have played a significant number of minutes together with Amihere used more as a rim protector.
It’s worked. Watch as Amihere sags off of South Dakota’s Jeniah Ugofsky and blocks the shot here. This is one of her six blocks so far this season.
With an athleticism advantage over Boston and an extra half an inch of wingspan, there’s no reason why Amihere can’t keep filling this role exceptionally. Boston’s block average isn’t going to stay nearly this low, but don’t be surprised if she doesn’t lead the team in blocks this year. And that may even be a good thing for the Gamecock defense.
Regardless of whether or not South Carolina looks the same in March as they did in November, they are going to be Final Four contenders. When pure talent is paired with coaching brilliance that gets the most out of it, good things are always in store.
But if opponents are looking for a blueprint to stop the favorites, it might be in the form of the swarm — swarm the superstar and take your chances with the perimeter. Boston’s pedestrian defensive numbers speak more to the emergence of Amihere than to her own play, but her scoring efficiency may not be eye-popping until either her teammates begin hitting shots or she learns to, as Staley put it on Twitter, “[score] in the little space she’s given.”
Either way, it will still take a tremendously talented team to knock the Gamecocks from their perch atop the rankings. They face one of those tonight in No. 8 NC State, who is led by 6-foot-5 sensation Elissa Cunane. So look out for these trends tonight on ESPN2 at 7 pm ET. Will Boston and South Carolina show that November numbers can be meaningless? Or will Wes Moore’s Wolfpack exploit a Gamecock weakness and pull the upset?
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
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The matchup against Sjerven in the South Dakota game wasn't an easy one for Boston. It seemed Boston was content taking outside shots later in the second half rather than grind it out inside. Look at her shot chart.