A Return to the Spotlight
After heartbreaking Final Four losses last season, will it be South Carolina or UConn raising the national championship trophy tonight?
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South Carolina versus UConn. Seeing those perennial powerhouses on the channel guide, outsiders might believe that such a national championship matchup was inevitable. Nothing could be further from the truth. The AP No. 1 team all season, South Carolina’s appearance is hardly a surprise. UConn? That’s a different story.
Anyone on December 10 predicting a UConn national championship run was either lying or the proud owners of a DeLorean complete with time-traveling capabilities. After all, the Huskies sat at 5-2, Paige Bueckers had suffered a tibial plateau fracture and lateral meniscus tear five days prior, and they had just put up only 44 points in a road loss to Georgia Tech (without Azzi Fudd and Paige Bueckers). The future was uncertain.
With most of its impact players now healthy, the Huskies are firing all on cylinders and have continued to find different ways to win. They pulled out a double-overtime win over NC State in the Elite Eight on the back of Paige Bueckers’ unconscious overtime performance. In a gritty effort versus Stanford, they knocked off the defending champions despite committing 19 turnovers and shooting just 37% from the field.
Will UConn’s roller coaster of a season culminate in championship No. 12, or will the Gamecocks hoist their second trophy in five tournaments? Here are a few factors that will impact the answer to that question.
South Carolina’s success from long distance
If South Carolina is even moderately proficient from long distance on Sunday, UConn’s title chances diminish significantly. Gamecock opponents have often collapsed their defenses into the paint to limit Aliyah Boston’s dominance, leaving Destanni Henderson and Zia Cooke open for threes. Success from behind the arc can force defenses to abandon this strategy, allowing Boston and the South Carolina frontcourt to have a field day.
It’s a logical plan, given that South Carolina ranks 162nd (out of 356 teams) in three-point percentage at 30.9%. They shot a combined 12-for-56 (21.4%) from three-point range in their first two tournament games. However, the Gamecocks have rebounded, hitting at least 33.3% of their shots from long distance in each of their past three games. The result? Three South Carolina wins, the highest offensive rating Louisville has allowed all season, the second-highest offensive rating allowed by North Carolina, and an 80-point performance versus Creighton.
A 33% three-point percentage isn’t even that impressive, just slightly above the national average of 31%. However, South Carolina’s top-ranked defense affords it a large margin of error on the offensive end.
UConn fans can only hope that the same divine intervention that allegedly aided Olivia Nelson-Ododa’s free throws will produce a poor South Carolina performance from three-point land.
UConn’s frontcourt avoiding foul trouble
UConn’s best hopes for containing consensus Player of the Year Aliyah Boston are Olivia Nelson-Ododa and Aaliyah Edwards. It’s no small task and, given how foul prone they are and the level of physicality required, is one that could land the Huskies' frontcourt in foul trouble.
Nelson-Ododa has committed at least four fouls in three of her last four games and averages 2.8 fouls per game, the same as the notoriously foul-prone Cameron Brink (to be fair, Nelson-Ododa plays 5.4 more minutes per contest). Edwards, whose 2.4 fouls per outing ranks in the bottom quarter of all Division I, has committed at least three fouls in each of UConn’s past six games. Additionally, Boston has shown a propensity for drawing fouls, ranking in the top 5% in Division I in free-throw attempts (4.5 per outing) and shooting 29 shots from the charity stripe over her last three games.
Restricting Boston’s offensive production is critical for UConn but virtually impossible if Nelson-Ododa and Edwards are on the bench.
The importance of the rebounding battle
South Carolina is the country’s best rebounding team by nearly every measure and is particularly adept on the offensive glass. The Gamecocks pull down a whopping 45.7% of their offensive rebounding opportunities, while no other Division I team cracks the 43% threshold. This has translated into 16.2 second-chance points per game this season, which ranks in the top 1% of Division I per CBB Analytics.
On the flip side, UConn has done an exceptional job controlling the defensive glass over the past three games, limiting its past three opponents - Indiana, Stanford, and NC State - to their second-lowest, third-lowest, and fourth-lowest offensive rebounding rates, respectively. To be sure, those teams, whose average rank in offensive rebounding rate is 133rd, don’t hold a candle to the Gamecocks on the offensive glass. Whether the Huskies can build off of this success and limit an aspect of South Carolina’s offense that accounts for 22.8% of its scoring (second-chance points) will go a long way toward determining this game’s outcome.
Brea Beal
Brea Beal’s performance against Louisville was a masterclass in on-the-ball defense. Riding a four-game streak of 20-point games heading into the Final Four, Louisville’s Hailey Van Lith was held to just nine points Friday night largely due to Beal’s suffocating defense.
The Gamecocks have held opponents to just 35% shooting from inside the arc this season, the best in the country. A major part of that is South Carolina’s 7.5 blocks per game (tops in the nation), led by Naismith Defensive Player of the Year Aliyah Boston patrolling the paint. But for that defensive success to continue tonight, Beal’s effectiveness as a perimeter defender is crucial, particularly against a team whose backcourt includes the mid-range magician that is Paige Bueckers.
Championship No. 2 or championship No. 12?
Following South Carolina’s 73-57 win over UConn on November 22, Huskies coach Geno Auriemma stated: “In the next four months, the team you saw today could be a completely different team. That’s every coach’s hope and prayer.” It’s safe to say that Auriemma’s prayers were answered, but will it be enough against the South Carolina juggernaut? Or will Aliyah Boston change the narrative and transform those tears of sadness from last year’s Final Four loss into tears of joy? Tune in tonight at 8 p.m. Eastern on ESPN to find out!
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Love the article. Guess we shall have to wait and see which team's hard work will bring them the TROPHY! Always exciting for sure.