Her Hoop Stats Staff 2021 WNBA Playoff Predictions
Her Hoop Stats writers come together and make their predictions for the 2021 WNBA Playoffs.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?
Aneela Khan: The WNBA playoffs tip off on Thursday evening on ESPN2. The Chicago Sky tip off against the Dallas Wings at home followed by the Phoenix Mercury facing the New York Liberty in a double-header. Both are single-elimination games. The winners will move on to face the Minnesota Lynx and the Seattle Storm in the final single-elimination games. This will be the Storm’s chance to defend their title from last year. We rounded up some of the Her Hoop Stats staff writers to get their opinions on who will win each round as well as who will play in the WNBA Finals. Their answers are listed below.
Who advances from Round 1?
Calvin Wetzel: Chicago has too much talent, and the third time’s the charm in terms of escaping the single-elimination rounds. The Wings aren’t experienced enough for the playoffs just yet.
I’ll take the Mercury as well. They’ve cooled off a little since their torrid run out of the break, but they should have the best two players on the floor in Brittney Griner and Skylar Diggins-Smith.
Gabe Ibrahim: Lower seeded teams are 2-8 in the first round since the current playoff format was installed in 2016. The two winners were the 2016 Phoenix Mercury and the 2020 Connecticut Sun.
New York and Dallas don’t have the star power or experience of those teams. The Liberty should be excited about this game, especially after only winning two games last year. They fought through injuries to sneak into the playoffs and build momentum for 2022. However, they have no answer for Brittney Griner in the post. BG has put up 55 points against the Libs in two games this year. New York isn’t ready for the Mercury’s star power and Phoenix should move on with or without Diana Taurasi.
Dallas certainly has a chance against Chicago, especially with how volatile the Sky have been this season. But, I’m with Calvin. The Sky have the best players in this series and have done a nice job of containing Arike Ogunbowale in their matchups this year. I’ll take Chicago, but Dallas probably covers the spread.
James Hyman: Candace Parker’s playoff kryptonite has been the dominant interior defense of Connecticut the past two seasons. The inexperienced Wings’ frontcourt will be a significantly easier task, and as long as the Sky guards can continue to contain Ogunbowale (5-for-17, 4-for-10, and 7-for-20 from the field in their three matchups respectfully), the Chicago Sky should advance without a scare.
The Liberty have players with championship experience who will help the younger players in their first playoff run. Unfortunately, that run will be short lived. Phoenix had been red-hot before running into the even hotter Sun, and losses against the Seattle Storm and Las Vegas Aces to end the season are not unacceptable. Griner and Diggins-Smith are both veteran all-WNBA levels players who will not let New York out of round one. Phoenix should advance easily.
Adam Vachon: The single-elimination format of the first two rounds lends itself to chaos and upsets, which actually works well for New York’s live-by-the-three, die-by-the-three mentality. After all, the Liberty set WNBA single-season records for three-pointers made (321) and percentage of field goals taken from behind the arc (42.0%). So, it’s possible New York catches fire from distance Thursday night and bounces Phoenix from the playoffs. It also appears that Sabrina Ionescu has returned to her early-season form. She’s averaged 17.8 points and 6.6 assists over the last five games, not far off from the 17.8 points and 7.8 assists she averaged in the team’s first six games of the season.
Sorry to rain on Liberty’s playoff parade, but there’s a reason FanDuel currently gives New York the worst odds to win the WNBA title, at +15,000. They enter the postseason with a net rating of -7.4, the worst of any team in WNBA playoff history (hat tip to our own Richard Cohen for that nugget of information). The duo of Skylar Diggins-Smith and Brittney Griner feasted on New York’s defense in the regular season. Diggins-Smith dropped 26.3 points per contest in their three meetings; Griner put up 27.5 points per game. Taurasi or no Taurasi, I’m picking Phoenix to advance.
I’ve gone back and forth on the other first-round matchup. Chicago has been the league’s Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. Which team will show up Thursday night? The squad that took back-to-back games from the defending champs last month, including a 32-point blowout. Or will we see a Sky team that proceeded to drop four of its next five, including losses against Washington and a 33-point drubbing at the hands of Las Vegas? Despite Dallas taking two out of their three regular-season meetings (including one in the Windy City), the Sky are too talented to bow out in the first round, and they advance to face the Minnesota Lynx.
Aneela: I agree with Calvin, Gabe, James and Adam that both the Sky and Mercury should advance in the first round of the playoffs. These are after all, single-elimination games and in the playoffs, experience does become a factor. I don’t quite think the Liberty can pull it off against a team like the Mercury who will have both Skylar Diggins-Smith and Brittney Griner to lead the way. We don’t know for sure if Diana Taurasi will play yet, but those two alone should be enough to get past the Liberty.
As for the Sky vs Wings game, I too, agree with Adam that the Sky have been like Dr Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, because you just never know which team will show up. But, they still have Candace Parker on the team. I think her playoff experience should be enough to help lead the way for the Sky, and they will be able to take care of the Wings.
Who wins in Round 2?
Calvin: Minnesota was my preseason pick to win it all, and they’ve played like contenders since the Olympics. I don’t see them losing their first game.
I do think the Mercury will pull the first “upset” of the playoffs (although Phoenix was favored over the Storm by sportsbooks on Friday before coming up short). Whether or not Breanna Stewart can play will be key though.
Gabe: Lower seeded teams are 5-5 in this round since 2016, which should give hope to Chicago and Phoenix fans. But I just can’t pull the trigger on picking either underdog in this game.
The Mercury were the hottest team in the WNBA in August when they reeled off 10 straight wins. But Griner, Skylar and Co. have come back down to Earth with three straight losses. The loss against the Storm was particularly worrisome because the Mercury got beat fairly easily despite Breanna Stewart’s absence. Jewell Loyd forced Diggins-Smith into 5 turnovers and engulfed her on the perimeter. Oh and Loyd had 37 points, including 22 in the first quarter. The status of Breanna Stewart and Diana Taurasi will be obviously important. As Adam points out below, the Storm are an elite team with Stewie on the floor and close to the Indiana Fever with her off. To a lesser extent, Taurasi has a similar effect on Phoenix. Seattle also has slightly better depth than Phoenix to make up for these players not playing or being limited. Factoring in that uncertainty, I’m still taking Seattle in a close one.
There’s probably some great statistical nuggets or interesting matchups that would make me sound smart here. But I’m picking Minnesota simply because I’ve seen Cheryl Reeve and many of her players succeed in the playoffs whereas I’ve only seen James Wade and his group falter on this stage recently. In fairness to the Sky, every team that succeeds failed at some point in the past. This could be Chicago’s time. However, Minnesota has been playing some of the league’s best basketball since the Olympic break and the Sky have been a .500 team all year.
James: The second round is where these playoffs will get very interesting. I think there was a clear top six teams in the league this year, and sadly two of them will fall victim to the questionable win-or-go-home playoff formatting.
I really really want to pick Chicago. They have a roster that is championship caliber; they just haven’t been able to combine all of their skills consistently. On the other hand, Minnesota has done everything expected of them and more over the last three months, only falling to Connecticut and Las Vegas in their last 20 games. The Lynx have four players who can lead them offensively at any moment (Powers, Fowles, McBride, Collier), and that will prove too much for the Sky which is why I am picking the Lynx to advance.
Mercury vs. Storm is the hardest series of the entire playoffs for me. Seattle has the history, but it is hard to say how Breanna Stewart will fare coming off the foot injury. Jewell Loyd and Sue Bird are certainly capable of getting the job done, but I’ll go with the upset assuming a less than 75% Stewart (because she certainly doesn’t need to be 100% to change the outcome).
Adam: I agree with James’ sentiment about the second round’s single-elimination format. The Phoenix-Seattle clash is poised to be a classic, so it’s a shame we won’t see them battle it out over a full series. The result hinges on the health and availability of Breanna Stewart. Even if not 100% come Sunday, the 2018 MVP completely changes the complexion of the game. The Storm’s net rating is 20.5 points per 100 possessions higher when Stewie is on the court compared to when she’s on the bench. Unfortunately for Storm fans, the latest indications aren’t promising for her return. Seattle’s inconsistent post-Olympic play (5-6 record, including a head-scratching 28-point blowout loss against Los Angeles) coupled with the uncertainty surrounding Stewie makes it vulnerable to a second-round exit. The Storm frontcourt will struggle to contain Brittney Griner, and Phoenix advances in the nominal upset.
Chicago’s inconsistencies catch up with them in the second round against a team the caliber of Minnesota. After an 0-4 start, the Lynx put the pieces together, winning 22 of their last 28 games. It’s hard to infer much from their regular-season series, as they split 1-1, and each game had a star player missing (Aerial Powers in game 1; Candace Parker in game 2). The Lynx are just playing better, more consistent basketball right now, and the potent frontcourt of Collier and Fowles combined with the return of Powers will propel Minnesota into the next round.
Aneela: I am going to also agree with Gabe in picking both Seattle and Minnesota to advance to the next round. Seattle versus Phoenix is going to be so much fun to watch. In the playoff history between these two teams, Phoenix has gone 3-2 against Seattle, which is very intriguing. However, I am picking Seattle to advance over Phoenix, because like James explained above, it’s hard to know how Breanna Stewart will fare and how she may or may not play. But, the Storm still have Jewell Loyd and like Gabe said, she had 37 points in their last meeting between these two teams. This game will be in Seattle and that will make a difference.
In the Chicago vs. Minnesota second round single-elimination game, I picked Minnesota to advance because of the way they are playing and how they finished the regular season. Minnesota has more weapons on the floor than Chicago does. As James explained earlier, they have four impact players (Fowles, Collier, McBride and Powers) who can make a difference. Chicago just doesn’t have the same firepower. The Lynx will double team Candace Parker. The Sky will have to heavily rely on Kahleah Copper and Allie Quigley. Aerial Powers comes off the bench for Minnesota and she immediately makes an impact. Although Diamond DeShields has started to recently come off the bench for Chicago and scored 30 points in 23 minutes in their last regular season game, I don’t think she will be able to do the same against the Lynx. The defense will be stifling.
Who advances to the WNBA Finals?
Calvin: Connecticut is just on an entirely different level right now, so I’ll take them to sweep the Mercury in the semis. I like Aces vs. Lynx to go five, but I’ll stick with my preseason pick and give Minnesota the edge, even with Liz Cambage back in the mix.
Gabe: Glad we get series at this stage of the playoffs because Connecticut-Seattle and Las Vegas-Minnesota have classic potential. The WNBA’s stars will be shining bright and both series will have plenty of intriguing matchups and chippiness.
Connecticut has been the best team all year long. They have the best defensive rating (90.1) of any team since the 2015 New York Liberty (89.6). Jonquel Jones should waltz into the MVP. Ditto for Curt Miller with Coach of the Year, Brionna Jones with Most Improved and Briann January with All-Defense First-Team. Superstar Alyssa Thomas will even be available for the Sun! So, why am I still hesitant to pick them? Seattle has smoked Connecticut in two of the three matchups between these teams and won all three. Albeit, every game had odd circumstances and players missing including Jonquel Jones's absence due to Eurobasket. Breanna Stewart would (probably) be healthy if Seattle got this far and is one of the only matchup nightmares for Connecticut in the entire league. I’m still going with the Sun in five because of Miller's ability to adjust in playoff series and the team’s years of playing together. Did I just disrespeCT the Seattle Storm?
If we could get tables, ladders, and chairs on the court, Vegas-Minnesota would be an awesome WWE matchup. These two teams are physical, mean and love talking trash. The thing I am most sure about here is Aerial Powers and Liz Cambage having to be separated at some point. More importantly, both of these teams play excellent, crisp basketball and seem to genuinely like their teammates. I’ll go with Vegas in five because they have a slight talent advantage and more experience with one another. But this series will be decided in the last few minutes of Game 5.
James: What the Connecticut Sun are doing on defense right now is otherworldly. Throw in the future MVP Jonquel Jones on offense and I don’t see Phoenix winning more than a game in this series. The Sun should advance fairly easily.
Is it too boring to predict the top two seeds to make the finals? Las Vegas and Minnesota have played three great games this season, and this series would be no different. I like the Aces bench led by two 6th women of the year candidates to be the difference in bringing Las Vegas back to the finals.
Adam: Playing with a sense of urgency in a win-or-go-home game, I can see Phoenix taking a home contest in the semifinal series with Connecticut. That’s all though. It’s not exactly a hot take, but the Sun are just too good. They boast the front-runner for MVP in Jonquel Jones, the likely Most Improved Player award winner in Brionna Jones, the league’s best defense, and the WNBA’s best rebounding team of all-time (by total rebounding rate). Tack on the return of Alyssa Thomas, and it’s an embarrassment of riches that the Mercury aren’t going to overcome.
In the battle of the co-hosts of Tea with A and Phee, A’s squad (A’ja Wilson’s Las Vegas Aces) will advance to the Finals. While Minnesota won the season series 2-1, Las Vegas’ recent 21-point win over the Lynx was very telling. The $64,000 question for the Aces is whether Liz Cambage will be 100% after her COVID-19 diagnosis. Even if the answer to that question is “no” for the semifinals, the depth of the Aces’ bench will carry them through to the Finals.
Aneela: This is going to be fun. We will have finally reached the best of five series. Connecticut vs. Seattle is going to be interesting, but in my opinion, I think Las Vegas vs. Minnesota will be the playoff series to watch. I agree with Calvin when he says that Connecticut is on an entirely different level right now. Their defense and their ability to blow out opponents in the regular season were above the other teams. There could be a slight chance that they play Alyssa Thomas. If they do play Alyssa Thomas, it could be helpful for the Sun, and it may be enough for them to beat Seattle. While I do think Seattle is a formidable opponent, I think the Sun take care of them in four games. I think Seattle will win a game, but I think the Sun’s defense, their ability to have multiple players score will be too much for Seattle to handle. The Sun will win 3-1 to advance to the WNBA Finals.
In my opinion, I think the Las Vegas vs. Minnesota series will be very juicy. I say that because the Aces are very good and hard to defend against. They had seven players average double figures in scoring, the most in WNBA history. Liz Cambage is back, and she will be well-rested for this series. Sylvia Fowles will have her hands full between Liz Cambage and A’ja Wilson. Napheesa Collier is going to be asked to do a lot more. While the Lynx will be able to handle Kelsey Plum, the Aces still have Dearica Hamby who can handle the scoring load for the bench. On top of all of that, Kayla McBride will be defended against the likes of Riquna Williams. It’s not going to be easy at all for the Lynx to handle. The Aces have more firepower and will be more rested. Despite all of that, I do think it will be a close series. The Aces will win 3-2 to advance to the WNBA Finals.
Who will be the Champion?
Calvin: As much as I want to ride with the Lynx, I simply can’t pick against the Sun. Jonquel Jones is too good, and they are playing such connected and inspired basketball down the stretch.
Gabe: Projecting what will happen in the Finals this far in advance is a fools’ errand. Whichever two teams make it this far will likely look different than they do now. Adam talks about the clash of styles below and I agree with him about tempo being crucial. However, the playoffs force teams to lean on their stars. For both these teams, the stars are the bigs: Jonquel Jones, Brionna Jones, (Alyssa Thomas?), Liz Cambage, and A’ja Wilson. The battle on the glass will be huge because Connecticut gets the most offensive rebounds in the league while Vegas gives up the least. Connecticut’s bigs will also have to be careful to stay out of foul trouble against two of the best foul drawers in the WNBA. There are plenty of interesting and important matchups elsewhere (including the coaching matchup between Curt Miller and Bill Laimbeer). But this series will be decided down low by superstars. I’ll pick the Connecticut Sun in five to get their first title because Jonquel Jones has been the brightest star this year.
James: Two teams who have never won a championship; only one gets to change that. The x-factor for this series will be Alyssa Thomas. How often does the league’s best team add an All-Star right before the playoffs? The Sun are also undefeated against Las Vegas this season, so I think Connecticut will raise that elusive first banner.
Adam: Connecticut vs. Las Vegas, a series for the ages. The league’s best offense against the league’s best defense, a match-up of the past two league MVPs (yes, I think it’s safe to assume Jonquel Jones will win this year’s award), each franchise’s quest to capture its first title - the subplots are as endless as they are fascinating. Given the contrast in styles between the more deliberate Sun offense (last in the W in pace) and a Las Vegas offense that ranks second in pace, the ability to dictate tempo will play a key role.
I see this series going the full five games, with each team holding serve on its home court. In a season where there has been a lack of home-court advantage, Las Vegas and Connecticut have done a superb job protecting their home turf. The Aces are 13-3 at Michelob ULTRA Arena and outscore opponents by 14.6 points per 100 possessions, while the Sun are 15-1 at Mohegan Sun Arena and score 12.9 points per 100 possessions more than their visiting opponents.
The Sun have home-court advantage and proved they can shut down Las Vegas’ high-powered offense in a three-game sweep of their regular-season series, holding the Aces to an average offensive rating of 84.3 (well below their WNBA-leading season average of 106.0). In a deciding game reminiscent of Game 5 of the 2016 WNBA Finals, Connecticut will raise its long-awaited first championship trophy.
Aneela: This is so hard. Las Vegas and Connecticut have been the top two teams in the league this season. Both have talented superstars on their teams. Both have great defenders as well as great playmakers. Like Adam stated earlier, the Sun swept the Aces in the regular season. They are the best defensive team in the league. It’s so hard to pick right now. Like Gabe said above, picking who will win the WNBA Finals right now is difficult because the two teams will likely be different than they are now. I’m going to have to agree with my fellow writers that the Sun will win the WNBA Finals. However, I’m very hesitant about that prediction. The Aces are very good and in the playoffs, they could raise their level of play even higher. It wouldn’t surprise me if they found a way to win the championship trophy.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram.