Numbers to Know: South Carolina vs. Louisville
Every stat you need to know going into the early Friday game in the Final Four
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In advance of Friday’s Final Four matchup between South Carolina and Louisville in the early game (7 p.m. ET on ESPN), we want to arm you with all the facts and figures to keep an eye on in the matchup.
What does our model say?
The Her Hoop Stats Prediction Model gives South Carolina a 71% chance to win and expects the score to be 65-59. Our model is based on our Her Hoop Stats ratings (HHS ratings) which measure team performance after adjusting for pace and opponent strength. South Carolina ranks No. 1 overall in HHS rating while Louisville ranks No. 5.
We also break HHS ratings down into HHS offensive rating and HHS defensive rating to assess offense and defense adjusted for the strength of opposing defenses and offenses. South Carolina has the No. 6 offense and the No. 1 defense in the nation according to the HHS offensive and defensive ratings. Louisville is No. 8 in offensive rating and No. 6 in defensive rating. Only three other teams rank in the top 10 in both stats this season: Stanford (Final Four), UConn (Final Four), and NC State (Elite 8).
How do the teams stack up in key areas?
Rebounding: South Carolina ranks first in the nation in offensive rebounding rate, 45.9%, compared to 36.5% for Louisville. Worse news for Louisville, their defensive rebounding rate ranks just 132nd in the nation. This is a clear advantage for South Carolina if Louisville doesn’t find a way to adjust.
Opponent scoring average: South Carolina allows just 50.5 points per game, third in the nation. In fact, they have held every single one of their opponents below their season scoring average. Louisville ranks 15th at 55.2 points allowed per game.
3-point shooting: Louisville also holds the edge here, ranking 16th in the nation hitting 35.9% from deep. South Carolina shoots about average from behind the arc, ranking 169th at 30.8%. If Louisville can get hot from deep, and avoid the daunting South Carolina interior, that could be a recipe to pull out the win.
Shot-blocking: South Carolina leads the nation in blocks per game and block rate at 7.6 (ranks seventh since 2009-10) and 16.8% respectively. Louisville ranks 17th in block rate at 12.3%.
Opponent effective shooting percentage: South Carolina leads the nation in opponent effective field goal percentage, at 35.9%. Louisville also ranks highly, but 25 spots lower at 41.1%. This is even more impressive for South Carolina given their average opponents’ scoring efficiency ranks fourth in the nation while Louisville’s ranks just 53rd.
Free-throw shooting: Louisville holds the edge in free-throw shooting this season, their 71.7% from the line ranks 130 spots higher than South Carolina’s 67.6%.
Free-throw rate: South Carolina has a decided edge here, as Louisville goes to the line on just 12.3% of their 2-point scoring attempts (shots plus free-throw trips) which is the sixth-worst in Division I.
More South Carolina Stats
South Carolina leads the nation in wins and win percentage despite playing the hardest schedule in the country according to average margin per 100 possessions (9.9) and average win percentage of their opponents (63.8%).
Since 2009-10, only three other teams have won at least 90% of their games while facing a schedule with an average opponent winning percentage of at least 63.5%: Notre Dame in 2017-18 (NCAA Champion) and 2014-15 (Runners Up), and UConn in 2009-10 (NCAA Champion).
South Carolina tops the nation in margin of victory per game (20.6) and margin per 100 possessions (29.9). UConn is No. 2 in both stats.
Aliyah Boston’s double-double streak ended at 27 games in the Elite Eight, and she currently leads the country with 28 double-doubles total. In the last three years, Aliyah Boston has had 58 double-doubles, the most of anyone in Division I since 2019-20.
Aliyah Boston leads the country in win shares per 40 minutes (0.65) and PER (44.9), two estimates of the value contributed by a player based on the box score.
Aliyah Boston is the only player in the country to average at least 16.0 points, 12.0 rebounds, 2.0 blocks per game this season.
More Louisville Stats
Louisville is 8-0 when Hailey Van Lith scores at least 20 points. She is the only player to have scored 20 points in four tournament games this year, and no other player has more than two such games. Aari McDonald was the only player with four or more last year, she scored 20 in five of her six games.
Louisville has given up 70 or more points just twice all year (71 against Clemson and Syracuse). The Cardinals have not allowed more than 100 points per 100 possessions in 16 straight games. NC State was the last team to accomplish the feat, doing so on Jan. 20.
Louisville is seventh in the country in margin of victory per game (17.0) and sixth in margin per 100 possessions (24.9).
Louisville forced Michigan into 22 turnovers. The last team to force more in a game in the Elite Eight or later was Louisville in 2014 against Maryland (25). 15 of their 22 turnovers came via steals. They now have the games with the most (18) and third-most (15) steals in the tournament this year. 15 steals is the most in a game in the Elite Eight or later since UConn in 2018 against Oregon.
Emily Engstler is the only player since at least the 2010 tournament to have 15 rebounds and 5 steals in an NCAA tournament game.
Emily Engstler and DePaul’s Aneesah Morrow are the only players this season to average 2.5 steals and 1.5 blocks per outing and the only major conference players to do so since 2012-13.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.