Numbers to Know: Stanford vs. UConn
Every stat you need to know going into the late Friday game in the Final Four
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?
In advance of Friday’s Final Four matchup between Stanford and UConn in the late game (9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN), we want to arm you with all the facts and figures to keep an eye on in the matchup.
What does our model say?
The Her Hoop Stats Prediction Model gives Stanford a 57% chance to win and expects the score to be 64-62. Our model is based on our Her Hoop Stats ratings (HHS ratings) which measure team performance after adjusting for pace and opponent strength. Stanford ranks No. 3 overall in HHS rating while UConn ranks No. 4.
We also break HHS ratings down into HHS offensive rating and HHS defensive rating to assess offense and defense adjusted for the strength of opposing defenses and offenses. Stanford has the No. 5 offense and the No. 2 defense in the nation according to the HHS offensive and defensive ratings. UConn is No. 9 in offensive rating and No. 3 in defensive rating. Only three other teams rank in the top 10 in both stats this season: South Carolina (Final Four), Louisville (Final Four), and NC State (Elite 8).
How do the teams stack up in key areas?
Rebounding: Both teams are strong rebounders, but they have different areas where they excel. Stanford is the better offensive rebounding team, ranking 19th in the nation in offensive rebounding rate compared to UConn’s 82nd. UConn is a slightly better defensive rebounding team, ranking 37th while Stanford ranks 52nd.
3-point defense: UConn has a strong advantage in limiting opponent 3-pointers, holding opponents to 28.8% shooting, which ranks 76th nationally. Stanford’s opponents shoot 31.9% from deep, which ranks 250th in Division I.
Shot blocking: Both teams are in the top 16 in block rate, but Stanford has the edge as they rank third nationally at 15.3%. Both teams rank similarly in total blocks per game, with Stanford ranking fourth and UConn ranking 27th.
Foul trouble: Stanford’s shot-blocking prowess comes with a worse foul rate than UConn. Stanford’s 20.0% foul rate ranks 174th in Division I, while UConn’s 17.8% foul rate ranks 45th nationally. If Stanford can keep their foul trouble to a minimum, especially Cameron Brink, while still playing aggressively in the interior, that could be the deciding factor in the game.
More Stanford Stats
Stanford rides the country’s longest active winning streak (24 games) into the game (UConn’s 14-game winning streak is second). That’s impressive given that the Cardinal had the country’s third-toughest schedule in terms of opponent winning percentage (63.3%). During this run, the Cardinal have defeated opponents by an average of 18.8 points.
Cameron Brink ranks fifth in the country in player efficiency rating (PER) at 40.2 and Fran Belibi is 13th at 36.7. They and Caitlin Clark/Monika Czinano are the only pairs of teammates this season with a PER over 35 (minimum 400 minutes each).
Lexie Hull has caught fire recently, averaging 22.0 points in her four tournament games. Hull scored more than 22 points just once during the entire regular season.
The Cardinal have three players shooting at least 40% from behind the arc - Hannah Jump (40.0%), Lexie Hull (40.4%), and Lacie Hull (40.9%). Only South Dakota State has more players (four) in this category (minimum 50 3-point attempts).
Cameron Brink is the only player in the nation to average at least 24 points, 15 rebounds, and four blocks per 40 minutes this season (minimum 200 minutes). The last player to finish a season with these numbers was A’ja Wilson (2017-18).
In 2021 and 2022, only four teams won NCAA tournament games despite a turnover margin of -10 or below. Stanford accounts for three of the four games - the two aforementioned games and last year’s national championship. The only other game with -10 or worse was Utah over Arkansas in the first round this year.
Anna Wilson, who ranks in the top 1% in assist-to-turnover ratio, has recorded five games this season with at least five assists and zero turnovers. Only Creighton’s Tatum Rembao has more such games.
More UConn Stats
UConn has shot 55.6% on 2-pointers this season, which ranks third in the nation. In the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight, they shot 55.3% and 57.1%, respectively, after hitting just 45.0% and 26.7% in the first two rounds.
In Paige Bueckers’ 15 games this season, she is shooting 62.5% on 2-pointers, which is among the top 1% in the country. That is the third-highest two-point percentage by a guard this season (minimum 100 attempts) and the highest among major conference players.
Azzi Fudd played 49:13 in Monday’s win over NC State. That’s the most minutes played in an NCAA Tournament game since 2013.
UConn has eight players averaging 20 or more minutes per game (minimum 10 games played), tied for the most in Division I.
Azzi Fudd has shot 9-for-25 (36.0%) from behind the arc in her last three games. The rest of UConn has shot only 7-for-34 (20.6%) from deep during this timespan.
UConn has scored 12.5% of their points from the free-throw line, which ranks 351st (out of 356 teams). They were 326th last season and 346th in 2019-20. This year they shoot just 68.8% from the line, which is 230th in Division I.
UConn’s assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.31 ranks 10th in the country. Four Huskies (Paige Bueckers, Evina Westbrook, Nika Muhl, and Olivia Nelson-Ododa) have assist-to-turnover ratios over 1.70. Only UConn, Baylor, and FGCU have four players this season with assist-to-turnover ratios that exceed 1.70 (minimum 250 minutes).
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.