The case for each No. 2 seed to win the National Championship
A No. 2 seed hasn't won the title in over ten years. Could that change in 2022?
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?
It has been over 10 years since a No. 2 seed won the women’s NCAA tournament. In 2011, Texas A&M, the No. 2 seed in the Dallas region, defeated Stanford in the Final Four and Notre Dame in the national championship game to win it all. That Texas A&M team was coached by Gary Blair, who just retired following the conclusion of this season.
Despite the increase in parity we’ve seen in women’s college basketball over the last few seasons, all nine NCAA tournaments since 2011 have been won by a No. 1 seed. With seemingly more upsets than ever this season, 2022 could be the year that changes. According to our tournament simulation, there’s a 23 percent chance this year’s champion is not a No. 1 seed.
The No. 2 seed line this year features perennial powers Baylor and UConn, as well as Texas, which last won the NCAA tournament back in 1986, and Iowa, which last made a Final Four in 1993. The Bears and the Huskies are the favorites of the group to be in the conversation for a national title, with Texas and Iowa having Stanford and South Carolina, respectively, in their path to Minneapolis, but there’s a case for why any of the four could win a national title.
Baylor
It almost feels like cheating to start this off with Baylor, because until the Bears lost to Texas in the Big 12 tournament final on Sunday afternoon, they seemed to be on track to overtake Louisville as the No. 1 team in the Wichita region. While the loss to Texas did preclude the Bears from a top seed, it doesn’t change the outlook of the team headed into March Madness.
At the center of why the Bears could make a deep run is NaLyssa Smith. The reigning Wade Trophy winner has been peaking at the right time. As a result, so have the Bears in the final stretch of the regular season. Smith has scored over 30 points in three of her last six games She has topped 20 points in all but one of those games, and has recorded double-doubles in all six as well. If Smith is playing at that level in the tournament, Baylor will be a tough opponent to beat - even for the Gamecocks in the semifinals or the Cardinal in the championship game.
UConn
Shifting to the Bridgeport region, UConn also has a convincing yet perplexing case to contend for their 12th national title and first since 2016. In a season plagued by a slew of injuries and disruptions, the Huskies finally have the depth they were expected to have all season long. While Paige Bueckers is still not at 100 percent after returning from her knee injury, she is available for the Huskies.
After a season of a ‘next woman up’ mentality while missing key players, the Huskies have a wealth of options on the offensive end, and the defense has been locked in as well, with UConn holding five of their last six opponents to 40 or fewer points. It seems like the Huskies are putting all the pieces together at the right time, as they dominated wire to wire in the Big East tournament, but without having seen this team at full health against the country’s other elite teams it’s tough to tell just how good they are.
Texas
Fun fact: the assistant coach on the 2011 Texas A&M squad that took home the trophy was Vic Schaefer, the current head coach of Texas. For as much as Baylor might be the favorite of this group to reach the Final Four, Texas just took the Bears down in the Big 12 final, fueled by the emergence of freshman Rori Harmon. She dropped 20 on the Bears for the trophy, and scored 30 in the Longhorns’ victory over Iowa State in the semifinals.
Texas has excelled on the defensive end from the onset of this season, starting with their early-season upset of the reigning national champion Stanford. But in their losses, struggling to find the basket enough has been a recurring theme. If Harmon can stay hot, she could be the answer.
Iowa
Caitlin Clark, need I say more? It’s hard to count the Hawkeyes out with a scorer as dynamic as Clark, but the Hawkeyes also have the toughest path to even reach the Final Four, sharing the Greensboro region with South Carolina.
Clark alone, even with her efficiency on logo threes, isn’t enough to beat the Gamecocks, but Iowa has a great duo with Monika Czinano, who also averages over 20 points per game and leads the country by averaging 1.31 points per play finished with a shot, free throw, or turnover. Clark and Czinano may be one of the best duos in the tournament, and the Hawkeyes can beat you both from the perimeter and in the lane, which they showed in the final stretch of the Big Ten, winning their last four games to claim a share of the Big Ten regular season title and then three straight to take home the conference championship trophy as well.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?
Absolutely terrific article Megan!