The Weekly Roundup: The National Title Case for Each Final Four Team
Breaking down each team’s path to the national championship
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Instant classic. Yes, the phrase is overused, but I struggle to understand its appropriate usage if it doesn’t apply to UConn’s double-overtime win over NC State in the finals of the Bridgeport regional. Valid concerns have been raised surrounding the fairness of a regional No. 1 seed playing in the home state of the region’s No. 2 seed. Hopefully, they spur constructive conversations about how to best balance attendance issues with those related to fairness. However, it is possible to ponder that discussion while also appreciating the quality of the product NC State and UConn provided for 10,000-plus fans and over two million TV viewers.
Kudos to the Huskies and to South Carolina, Stanford, and Louisville, who also punched their Final Four tickets to Minneapolis with regional final wins over Creighton, Texas, and Michigan, respectively. Below, I take a look at why each Final Four team should feel confident about their national title prospects.
Before we do that, we need to talk about what happened at the Oscars. No, not that. “The Queen of Basketball,” a documentary about legendary Delta State and Team USA basketball player Lusia “Lucy” Harris, won the Academy Award in the Documentary Short Subject category. Congratulations to director Ben Proudfoot and everyone else involved in the making of this compelling documentary!
The national title case for each Final Four team
Who will win the national championship on Sunday? My record for basketball prognostication isn’t exactly stellar, so what follows won’t be a straight answer to that question. However, I can provide some hope to the four fanbases represented in this year’s Final Four by outlining each team’s case for winning the national title.
South Carolina
The Gamecocks are the best team and have the country’s best player in Aliyah Boston. There, done. Q.E.D. OK, that’s not exactly the greatest mathematical proof, so let’s dig deeper into why South Carolina will win the national championship.
The case for South Carolina hinges on its defense. The Gamecocks boast the nation’s top defense, and frankly, it’s not particularly close. They lead Division I in several defensive categories including opponent field goal percentage (32.7%), opponent effective field goal percentage (35.9%), and blocks per game (7.6). They rank second in defensive rating (73.7 points allowed per 100 possessions) and third in points allowed per game (50.5). The only reason South Carolina doesn’t lead the nation in those two categories is its strength of schedule. The Gamecocks faced the toughest schedule based on opponent winning percentage (63.8%) and the fourth-best collection of offenses this year. The Her Hoop Stats defensive rating adjusts for the quality of opponents’ offenses and, accordingly, has South Carolina No. 1 by the widest margin since UConn in 2015-16.
I just threw a multitude of defensive metrics at you, but what does it all mean? In short, teams have a really hard time putting up points against the Gamecocks. South Carolina has often held opponents to well below their season average, and no Gamecock opponent managed to score above its season average this year. That’s a group of teams that includes fellow Final Four participants, UConn (with a healthy Paige Bueckers) and Stanford. Whether by altering or outright blocking shots, the Gamecocks' frontcourt of Boston, Laeticia Amihere, Victaria Saxton, and Kamilla Cardoso have caused fits for opposing offenses.
Remember when observers panicked about South Carolina’s offense after posting a measly 49 points in their second-round win over Miami? That feels like a distant memory after the Gamecocks became only the third team this season to post an offensive rating over 100 against North Carolina and then hung 80 points on Creighton in a 30-point blowout.
South Carolina’s offense is clicking, but that’s not even a prerequisite for the Gamecocks to capture the national title. Another lackluster 49-point effort likely won’t get the job done against the cream of the basketball crop. However, the consistency with which South Carolina’s defense has performed this season affords it a large margin for error on the offensive end.
Louisville
While the case for Louisville does not revolve around bulletin board material from former President Barack Obama or Jimmy Fallon, it does center on Hailey Van Lith’s recent brilliance and the leader of Louisville’s patented full-court press, Emily Engstler. Did you see Van Lith’s postgame interview with Christy Winters Scott following Louisville’s Elite Eight win over Michigan? Do you really want to pick against a team with a player that motivated and currently playing at such a high level?
Van Lith has raised her game to new heights, and the timing couldn’t be better. She has recorded four consecutive 20-point games in this month’s NCAA tournament and hit that threshold in six of her last eight games. As great a player as Van Lith is, she had dropped 20 points just twice in the 25 games preceding this stretch. Her 1-for-19 start to the season from long distance is in the rearview mirror, as the sophomore guard drained 43 of her next 103 attempts (41.7%) from behind the arc.
Louisville has the country’s sixth-best defense according to the Her Hoop Stats defensive rating. Opposing teams have committed nearly 20 turnovers per contest, with the Cardinals’ full-court press playing a key role. To top it all off, Louisville has proven adept at turning defense into offense. Per CBB Analytics, Louisville averages 21.6 points off turnovers per game, placing it in the top 1% of all Division I teams.
The success of Louisville’s defense all starts with the player at the front of its press: Emily Engstler. As hot as Van Lith has been on the offensive end, Engstler’s performance on the other side of the ball this tournament has been just as impressive, validating her selection as a Naismith Defensive Player of the Year semifinalist. The Syracuse transfer has amassed a whopping 19 steals and eight blocks in her team’s four tournament games. She has recorded three games this tournament with at least five steals, the most such games in a single tournament since at least 2010. It’s little surprise given that Engstler ranks in the top 1% of all Division in steals and blocked shots per outing and has the second-best individual defensive rating behind Aliyah Boston.
Coach Jeff Walz recently described her defensive prowess: “She reads passing lanes as well as any player we’ve had here since Angel McCoughtry.” That’s high praise given how McCoughtry has made the WNBA All-Defensive First Team seven times.
Even the Cardinals’ four losses - a 61-59 overtime loss to Arizona in the season opener, a nine-point setback at NC State that saw Louisville dominate for three quarters, a 66-65 heartbreaker at North Carolina, and a 61-59 loss at the buzzer to Miami in the ACC quarterfinals - offer insight into their championship chances by demonstrating how they’ve remained competitive in every game.
If Van Lith continues on her offensive tear and the Louisville press takes South Carolina and either Stanford or UConn out of their offensive rhythm, don’t be surprised if it's the Cardinals hoisting their first national championship trophy on Sunday night.
Stanford
Stanford rides a 24-game winning streak into this weekend’s Final Four. How impressive have the Cardinal been during this stretch? Multiple media outlets recently pegged them as the tournament’s best team. While that was partially a reaction to South Carolina’s sluggish offense in the first two rounds, it reflects Stanford’s strong play during the NCAA tournament. The Cardinal’s Princeton offense has operated like a well-oiled machine, producing countless backdoor opportunities against defenses intent on overplaying the perimeter. In a veritable pick your poison, as not overplaying the perimeter allows Stanford’s trio of 40% three-point shooters - Hannah Jump, Lexie Hull, and Lacie Hull - to take advantage. The Cardinal’s offense has been outstanding, but it’s their defense that has them on the cusp of back-to-back national championships.
Like South Carolina, Stanford’s defensive proficiency starts with its ability to protect the paint. The Cardinal reject 15.3% of opponents’ two-pointers (No. 3 in the country), resulting in opponents shooting an anemic 36.1% from inside the arc (No. 2 in the nation). That’s largely thanks to Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year Cameron Brink. The sophomore center swats 11.8% of two-pointers, a block rate that ranks eighth in the country. Brink’s rim protection was on full display this weekend in Spokane, blocking 11 shots across the Cardinal’s pair of games. The cumulative impact of this is a 16-game streak of limiting opponents to less than 100 points per 100 possessions and the nation’s second-best Her Hoop Stats defensive rating.
That’s a strong resume for any national title hopeful, and I haven’t even mentioned Haley Jones! Simply put, the Pac-12 Player of the Year does it all. In addition to contributing to the Stanford block party (1.1 blocks per game), Jones ranked in the conference’s top ten in points (14.2), rebounds (8.2), and assists (3.7).
Stanford clocks in at second and fifth in Her Hoop Stats defensive and offensive rating, respectively. In light of its proficiency on both sides of the ball, Stanford is arguably the country’s most well-rounded team. An offense operating on all cylinders and several viable scoring options coupled with a reliably stingy defense sounds like a recipe for championship No. 4.
UConn
UConn’s national title case can be summarized in four words: Paige Bueckers is back. I mean, really back. Sure, she officially returned to the Huskies lineup on February 25 after being sidelined for over two and a half months with an anterior tibial plateau fracture and lateral meniscus tear. However, her 27-point masterpiece in Monday night’s double-overtime win over NC State served notice to the world that the old Paige Bueckers, last season’s Naismith Player of the Year, had returned.
Granted, UConn dropped regular-season games to two of the three Final Four teams (South Carolina and Louisville). However, this is decidedly not the same Huskies squad those teams faced last calendar year.
First, the Huskies shored up their defense. Led by Big East Defensive Player of the Year Nika Mühl and Olivia Nelson-Ododa, UConn has allowed more than 100 points per 100 possessions in just one of its last 14 games (last night against NC State). Second, Bueckers’ absence forced her teammates to elevate their play to new heights. Few did that better than Azzi Fudd. The freshman phenom provided a critical jolt to the UConn offense, particularly in February when she averaged 16.1 points per contest and hit an otherworldly 51.7% of her threes.
But the Huskies’ 14th straight Final Four would not have been possible without Paige Bueckers operating at full capacity. The sophomore sensation’s ability to take over games and score at will transforms UConn’s ceiling from top-16 hopeful to national champion contender.
Michigan reminds us why basketball is great
Amid the negativity and snark that sometimes pollute the basketball landscape, it’s easy to forget about basketball’s ability to improve humanity. That may sound hyperbolic, but the following videos suggest otherwise.
Following her team’s Elite Eight loss to Louisville, senior guard Danielle Rauch encapsulated her four years at Michigan. She reflected on the lifelong friendships she developed and how the Michigan women’s basketball program helped her accomplish something she never dreamed possible.
The second video takes us to Zeeland, Mich. where a packed gymnasium watched a blind student named Jules attempt a shot during a game organized by the Special Olympics’ Unified Sports program.
A local teacher explained that the goal of the Unified Sports program is to “promote the importance of acceptance and inclusion across our campus and beyond.” It’s uplifting to hear that basketball is being used to promote such values sorely needed in today’s society.
Her Hoop Stats content in case you missed it
The Her Hoop Stats team was quite busy this past weekend covering all the action from the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight! Check out the following content they released on the Her Hoop Stats podcast network:
Gabe Ibrahim recapped the Greensboro region, from South Carolina’s dominant win over Creighton in the Elite Eight to the Blue Jays’ Cinderella run.
Dano Mataya, Aaron Barzilai, and Megan Gauer broke down what they saw at the Sweet 16 in Bridgeport, including the amazing finish to the NC State-Notre Dame regional semifinal. Dano and Megan also analyzed Monday night’s instant classic between UConn and NC State.
On the latest episode of HerHoopsChats, Dano Mataya and Gabe Ibrahim were joined by UT Arlington coach Shereka Wright to discuss her team’s outstanding season that culminated in a near-upset of Iowa State, how the transfer portal has transformed the recruiting landscape, and her Final Four picks
Calvin Wetzel appeared on SportsLine’s The Early Edge where he unveiled his bets for the Elite Eight.
Be sure to follow Her Hoop Stats on Twitter @herhoopstats so you know when we release new content as we bring you the latest from Final Four weekend in Minneapolis!
Other recommended content
ESPN’s Katie Barnes profiled Aliyah Boston, including her basketball journey from the U.S. Virgin Islands to South Carolina, her offseason workouts with Tim Duncan, and her desire to change the narrative after last season’s heartbreaking Final Four defeat against Stanford.
For The Next, Jenn Hatfield recapped Princeton’s thrilling second-round matchup versus Indiana and reflected on what the future holds for the Tigers.
In her Power Plays newsletter, Lindsay Gibbs explained the conversations that first-time NCAA tournament participant Longwood University recently had about the Kaplan gender equity report and the NCAA’s revenue distribution model.
It was a double feature of Michigan-related content from The Athletic’s Shannon Ryan. In the first piece, Ryan illustrated progress in women’s basketball by chronicling the basketball-playing experiences of Naz Hillmon, her mother, and her grandmother. In the second article, Ryan explored Kim Barnes Arico’s coaching career from coaching Division III to the Elite Eight.
For The Courier-Journal, Cameron Teague Robinson detailed how Hailey Van Lith’s relentless work ethic has helped her play with more confidence this season.
For Insider, Meredith Cash analyzed how social media posts have been a particularly lucrative avenue for profiting under the NCAA’s name, image, and likeness regulations for Paige Bueckers and other women’s basketball players.
The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Mike Sielski recounted the compelling story of the Immaculata’s Mighty Macs, winners of the first three AIAW national championships.
Trivia question of the week
Who is the only team that failed to win the national championship after topping the AP poll wire-to-wire, and during which season did this occur?
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.
Kudos to Dano and Megan for their analysis of the classic between Uconn and NC State. They captured the incredible intensity of the game. I've been watching BB, men's and women's, for many years and I can't think of a more intense, exciting game. As Geno said, this was a showcase for WBB. The players not displayed how talented they are but a mental toughness for all 50 minutes that rivals any men's team. Neither team gave in for the whole 50. As a Uconn fan, I was left with a great respect for NC State and wish they too could be in the Final Four. Kobe would have loved this game. They showed what "Mamba Mentality" means.