Tiers of a wide-open Big Ten race
The Big Ten is up for grabs with eight teams within a few games of first place. Who still has a chance to win it, and what are their odds?
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By Mike Bossetti
No Power 5 conference has more parity than the Big Ten. The Midwest’s most prestigious conference has four teams ranked in the top 25, with no one ranked in the top 15. Six teams have 14 or more wins, with zero having more than 16. According to ESPN, nine of the conference’s 14 teams are projected to make the NCAA tournament, the highest number among all conferences. However, no Big 10 team is projected to be seeded higher than a 4-seed, the lowest figure among all Power 5 conferences.
It wasn’t supposed to be like this. During the preseason, Maryland was selected by both coaches and media to win the conference. The Terrapins were initially considered a legitimate title contender. Thus far, their play on the court hasn’t met the preseason hype.
With Maryland taking a step back, the Big Ten race has blown wide open. There are currently four teams within one game of first place and nine teams within two-and-a-half games of first. About halfway through conference play, there are six teams with a legitimate chance to take home at least a share of the conference title:
Tier 1 — The Favorites
Iowa Hawkeyes: 15–3 Overall Record, 6–1 Conference Record
(Projected as a 4-Seed, according to ESPN.com)
Tied for first place, Iowa has been incredibly impressive in conference play after finishing 9–2 against an easy out-of-conference schedule. The Hawkeyes have already racked up wins against Northwestern, Maryland, and Indiana. Those wins could prove critical in any tie-breaking scenario, although they still have to face Maryland on the road later in the season.
Iowa is currently averaging an insane 107.9 points per 100 possessions, first in the Big Ten by a considerable margin. They’ve been buoyed by some unsustainable shooting, hitting greater than 40% of their threes during conference play. But if they want to win the Big Ten, they’ll need to stop someone eventually. Iowa ranks 9th in the conference, allowing 97.5 points per 100 possessions. That’s been good enough for now, but it might not be enough when the team inevitably regresses from beyond the arc.
Maryland Terrapins: 14–4 Overall Record, 5–2 Conference Record
(Projected as a 5-Seed, according to ESPN.com)
Maryland returned all five starters from the team which won the conference last season, they added one of the top recruiting classes in the country, and they were selected by all 14 coaches as the preseason favorite to win the conference. The Terrapins were ranked top-5 in both the Coaches and AP Poll to begin the year and were considered legitimate title contenders.
However, things haven’t been quite as smooth as expected so far this season for Maryland. Despite ranking 11th in points scored per 100 possessions, 6th in points allowed per 100 possessions, and 5th in Net Rating, the Terps have already dropped four games. Maryland’s first two losses against top-15 ranked opponents were understandable. Losing by a combined 28 points to Northwestern and Iowa is more concerning.
No team in the Big Ten has more talent than Maryland, who still is one of the favorites to win the conference. But with two conference losses already on their resume, they can’t afford to be sloppy from here on out.
Tier 2- Impressive resume, still a step below tier one
Northwestern Wildcats: 16–2 Overall Record, 6–1 Conference Record
(Projected as a 5-Seed, according to ESPN.com)
Early in the season, Northwestern dined on an easy out-of-conference schedule. That early success wasn’t expected to carry over when they faced the heart of the Big Ten play. And yet, seven games into the conference schedule, they’re currently tied for first place in the conference with critical wins over Indiana and Maryland. They rank 1st in the conference in points allowed per 100 possessions, and if they can get enough offense from junior shooting guard Lindsay Pulliam and senior forwards Abi Scheid and Abbie Wolf, they have a chance to win the conference.
For all those reasons, on paper, it makes sense for Northwestern to be in the top tier of the conference. However, despite their current record, they’re simply not quite as talented as the two teams ahead of them. Their ceiling is a step below both Maryland, Iowa, and perhaps even Indiana, and that’s why they’re still in Tier 2.
Indiana Hoosiers: 14–5 Overall Record, 4–3 Conference Record
(Projected as a 4-Seed, according to ESPN.com)
After starting 14–2, the Indiana Hoosiers looked incredibly impressive to start the year. Their only losses came to #2 ranked Baylor and #10 ranked UCLA. They beat the AP Poll’s current #1 ranked team, South Carolina, on a neutral site and started 4–0 in conference play.
Since that point, the Hoosiers have lost three straight games and dropped to 5th in the conference at 4–3. But while it’s never good to lose three straight, Indiana’s losses have been against tough opponents by the slimmest of margins. They lost to on the road to Iowa in double overtime, and they lost against Northwest in overtime by two points. Even their biggest loss of the season was against Maryland by a reasonable margin of 14 points. If a couple of bounces go the other way, they’d be in the driver seat at 6–1.
Indiana’s next four games are against a much more manageable set of opponents. If they take care of business, they should be up to 8–3 in the conference when they welcome in Maryland for a big-time showdown.
Tier 3 — Puncher’s chance
Rutgers Scarlet Knights: 15–3 Overall Record, 5–2 Conference Record
(Projected as a 6-Seed, according to ESPN.com)
At 15–3, Rutgers is one win short of the best overall record in the conference. Even so, with the cupcake schedule the Scarlet Knights have faced so far this season, it’s fair to call them unproven. Rutgers has currently faced six opponents outside the Her Hoops Rating top 200 and one within the top 25. Yes, they can only face who’s in front of them. However, wins against Coppin State and Southern University don’t say much about their chances to beat teams like Iowa and Maryland.
With a 5–2 conference record, they sit in a phenomenal position and control their destiny. But if we’re projecting forward, this team isn’t talented enough be considered a serious contender for the Big Ten.
Ohio State Buckeyes: 11–7 Overall Record, 4–3 Conference Record
(Projected as a 10-Seed, according to ESPN.com)
The youngest team in the conference, the Buckeyes have the talent to compete with anyone on any given night. However, incredibly inexperienced and inconsistent, they’re capable of losing to anyone just as easily.
After a rough start within the conference, the Buckeyes have won three out of four, with their only loss coming in the final seconds, on the road, to a sound Michigan State team. They currently sit two games out of 1st, with a conference record of 4–3. The Buckeyes’ winning perhaps not so coincidentally coincides with the easiest stretch of schedule they’ve faced all season. It’s possible the young Buckeyes have finally found their identity. It’s also possible they’re the same team feasting on cupcakes. With Iowa and Maryland up next on the schedule, we’ll know soon enough.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. Records are as of January 22, 2020. All stats were compiled from Her Hoop Stats.