The Biggest Questions for the Top 10 Teams
What the AP’s preseason rankings can’t tell us
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In some ways, the preseason AP poll tells us more than any poll in late November or December. It is, after all, devoid of any overreactions to single-game results.
But we know less about teams now than we will at any point during the season, and not even the best of the best are immune from unknowns.
In that spirit, let’s take a look at each of the AP poll’s top 10 teams and the biggest question they face heading into opening week.
South Carolina
What will the point guard position look like?
South Carolina has plenty of options here. Raven Johnson is returning from last year's season-ending injury; Kierra Fletcher transferred in from Georgia Tech; Dawn Staley has talked about giving Zia Cooke more point guard duties; even Laeticia Amihere may get in on the act after a brief stint running the point when Destanni Henderson missed time last year.
But none of them quite have the full package that Henderson or Ty Harris brought – the poise, the vision, the familiarity with the offense.
It's easy to want to sit back and pack the paint against South Carolina given the Gamecocks' typically dominant interior game and, well, less dominant perimeter shooting. However, it wouldn't be a shock to see one or two of South Carolina’s early opponents look to bring some pressure and make those new ball handlers prove themselves early on. Not only would forcing turnovers in the backcourt keep the ball out of Aliyah Boston's hands, it would neutralize the Gamecocks' biggest offensive strength – the offensive glass. You can't rebound your own missed shot when you don't get a shot up in the first place. Not to mention the fact that creating turnovers can lead to fast breaks – opportunities to score before South Carolina’s vaunted halfcourt defense is set.
All of that is easier said than done, of course. And given that the Gamecocks are coached by one of the greatest point guards in the history of the game, they'll probably be just fine. But it's a storyline to keep an eye on early in the season.
Stanford
Can Cameron Brink stay out of foul trouble?
There’s no denying the impact that Cameron Brink has when she’s on the floor. The budding 6-foot-4 star is a unicorn, a new age 3-and-D, the embodiment of the modern two-way ideal at the five. She ranked in the top 15 in Division I in shot blocking in both of her first two seasons no matter how you slice it – blocks per game, total blocks, blocks per 40 minutes, block rate. And she’s shooting over 36% from deep on her career.
For Brink, it’s never been a matter of how well she plays, rather, it’s been about how long she plays. Like many elite shot blockers, Brink has struggled with foul proneness throughout her career. For every shot-blocking metric that has her at the top, there’s a fouling metric for which she’s near the bottom.
To Brink’s credit, she took a step forward last season – she cut her fouls per 40 minutes from 6.0 to 5.2 and was able to up her minutes per game from 18.3 to 21.9. If she can take a similar step forward in that department in her junior season, we could finally see what it looks like for one of Tara VanDerveer’s most feared weapons to be unleashed for 30 minutes per game.
The Cardinal do bring in the nation’s No. 1 recruit in the frontcourt in 6-foot-7 Lauren Betts, so they may not need 30 minutes out of Brink anyway. Whether Betts will be ready to handle the physicality of Pac-12 basketball may be the second-biggest question for Stanford early on, and it could become a more important one depending on the answer to the first.
Texas
Does Shaylee Gonzales give the offense enough firepower to get to the Final Four?
Vic Schaefer has done a wonderful job in his first two years at Texas, taking the Longhorns to the Elite Eight in back-to-back seasons. The defense has been dominant in each of those seasons, while the offense has been merely good.
Texas hasn’t exactly been inefficient on offense, ranking in the top 50 in Her Hoop Stats Offensive Rating in both years. But it’s been an offense that has often relied on getting the ball on the rim and converting second chances, a strategy that runs out of steam against the top rebounding teams in the country.
Texas learned that the hard way, running into South Carolina and Stanford, respectively, in the last two Elite Eights. Both of those teams were tremendous on the boards, and both held the Longhorns well below their typical output on the offensive glass. As a result, Texas managed just 84 points combined in those two contests.
In order to get over that hump, Texas will need to be able to move the ball and generate good shots in games where they’re only being given one opportunity. Bringing in Rori Harmon last season was a great start in that department – she averaged five assists per game as a freshman and at times looked fantastic running the show. But in last year’s Elite Eight loss to Stanford, the rest of the team only managed two assists while shooting 11-for-34 from the field and just 7-of-25 inside the arc.
This year, Harmon won’t have to do it alone. At 5-foot-9, BYU transfer and two-time West Coast Conference Player of the Year Shaylee Gonzales brings elite rim pressure – she was the only player in the country last season to shoot 80% at the rim on at least three attempts per game (per CBB Analytics). If Gonzales can add enough juice to this Texas offense to ease the load on Harmon, this is a team that can challenge anyone in the country.
Iowa
Can the defense hold up enough to win top-five caliber matchups?
There shouldn’t be that much debate about who the best offense in the country is – it’s been Iowa basically ever since Caitlin Clark set foot on campus. The Hawkeyes have been able to simply outscore people in most of their track meets over the last two seasons.
But they’ve also needed to.
In Clark’s freshman year, Iowa ranked 338th in the country in defensive rating. Even when adjusted for strength of schedule, that ranking was still 186th. That isn’t gonna get it done for a team looking to make its first Final Four in nearly three decades.
This defense doesn’t have to be elite, mind you. It doesn’t even have to be great. It just has to be good enough to keep Iowa in games on nights when their shooting goes cold or when calls aren’t going their way.
After putting up those dreadful numbers two years ago, the Hawkeye D did make big gains in Clark’s second season, finishing in the top 100 in Her Hoop Stats Defensive Rating. That number improved from 93.3 points allowed per 100 possessions to 88.5. The South Carolinas of the world generally finish around 70; if Iowa can even get their number into the low 80s this year they have a real shot at a deep run.
Tennessee
Can the transfers space the floor enough to vault Tennessee into the top tier?
Tennessee hasn’t exactly put on a shooting clinic in recent seasons. Their 3-point percentage has declined in each season of Kellie Harper’s tenure, falling below 30% last year for the first time since 2016.
In fairness to Tennessee, they haven’t really needed to shoot it well to win games. They’ve finished in the bottom 25% in Division I in 3-point attempt rate for a decade running, including three straight seasons in the bottom 10% since Harper took over as head coach. The Vols are bigger, stronger, tougher, and just generally more talented than most of the teams they play.
Until they aren’t.
That recipe has worked wonders against the vast majority of the teams Tennessee has faced. But when they go up against the very best – those teams that are also big, strong, tough, and talented – they run into serious trouble.
Last season, the Vols faced all four eventual Final Four teams. They went 0-4 while shooting just over 25% from deep. If they want to compete with the top tier this year, they’ll need to at least marginally improve their shooting. That probably means getting some added shooting from newcomers.
Two of their four transfers – Jasmine Franklin and Jillian Hollingshead – have combined for two made 3s in their careers. Rickea Jackson has shown a willingness to shoot it, having attempted over 160 3s, but she’s made just 48 of them (29.6%), including a 24.3% mark last year. That leaves Jasmine Powell, who has a legitimate chance to help the team in this department (91-of-282 on her career).
If Powell, and maybe Jackson, can knock down enough shots in big games, Tennessee can return to the Final Four for the first time in 15 years.
UConn
Is this roster talented enough to extend its Final Four streak without Paige Bueckers?
Yes, UConn does know what it’s like to play without its star point guard – they did so for a significant chunk of the regular season last year while Bueckers recovered from a knee injury. But they had her down the stretch of the regular season and, more importantly, for the NCAA Tournament.
And that stretch without her? It didn’t go quite as well as what most UConn fans are probably used to. It included four losses, including three to unranked teams after zero of those in over nine years.
It’s UConn, of course, so there’s still all sorts of talent. Azzi Fudd and Caroline Ducharme return for their sophomore campaigns, Aaliyah Edwards is back and ready to take on a bigger load inside, and newcomers Lou Lopez-Senechal (Fairfield transfer) and Ayanna Patterson (No. 4 recruit) are in the mix as well.
There’s easily enough there to justify a spot in this top 10. But that doesn’t mean much for a program that last missed the Final Four a decade and a half ago. The real test for this group will be extending that streak with Nika Mühl running the point. That test won’t be graded until March.
Louisville
Can Hailey Van Lith continue her ascent from star to superstar that we saw in last year’s NCAA Tournament?
Hailey Van Lith is already one of the bigger names in college basketball. It didn’t take her long to reach that status after earning the No. 7 ranking in her high school class from ESPN’s HoopGurlz and proceeding to drop 20-plus points in two of her first three games (including a nationally televised game against DePaul).
She only reached 20 once more during the rest of her freshman season, but she wasn’t the team’s top option yet – that was Dana Evans. Van Lith took on more of a load last season, upping her usage and ball-handling responsibilities, but it was the NCAA Tournament where we really started to see her pop.
After a regular season scoring average of 13.6 points per game, Van Lith went on a remarkable run to lead her team to the Final Four, scoring at least 20 in all four games across the tournament’s first two weekends.
Now, with Kianna Smith and Emily Engstler gone and Van Lith the lone returner who averaged double figures in scoring, Louisville may need her to play at that level all year. Jeff Walz did hit the transfer portal to bring in Morgan Jones from Florida State and Chrislyn Carr from Syracuse, so Van Lith will still have scoring options around her. But, as she enters her junior season, she’s the unquestioned leader of this offense. The Cardinals will go as far as HVL can carry them.
Iowa State
How well will Stephanie Soares adjust to the NCAA Division I level?
Iowa State brings back almost its entire rotation from a team that spent much of last season ranked in the top 10, losing only Aubrey Joens (transfer to Oklahoma) among significant contributors. So we know a good deal more about this team than we do about some of the others on this list.
The one exception, however, is Stephanie Soares – the 6-foot-6 transfer from The Master’s University who spent the last few years obliterating everyone in her path at the NAIA level.
Soares won about every national award you could think of, including the NAIA Division I Player of the Year twice, and her career averages look almost made up: 19.0 points, 13.1 rebounds, and 4.5 blocks. While she was never a prolific threat from deep, she even knocked down 35 threes across her two Player of the Year campaigns, something that will be important to keep an eye on as she joins an Iowa State team that thrives on spacing and shooting.
Part of the story of this season for the Cyclones will be how Soares fits into this offense. Will Bill Fennelly move away from the five-out more often to utilize Soares in the post? Or will she show enough of an ability to stretch the floor that he doesn’t need to?
The broader question will simply be how Soares adjusts to this level of competition. It’s not a knock on the NAIA to say that facing Big 12 opponents night in and night out will be a whole new ball game. If Soares is up to the task, Iowa State will be back in business this season.
Notre Dame
Does this team have enough rim protection to maintain its defensive resurgence?
Notre Dame returned to prominence – and to the NCAA Tournament – last year after two straight seasons finishing .500 or worse, and a big reason why was the addition of Stanford grad transfer Maya Dodson. The 6-foot-3 center finished in the top 10 in the nation in shot blocking with 2.8 per game, and her rim protection helped transform a defense that ranked 127th a year prior into a top-30 unit in the Her Hoop Stats Rankings.
The Irish offense is going to give opponents fits with star point guard Olivia Miles entering her second full season and Dara Mabrey, Sonia Citron, and Maddy Westbeld all back to space the floor around her. There aren’t too many question marks on that side of the ball, where Niele Ivey has an embarrassment of riches.
The key for Notre Dame after Dodson’s departure will be replacing what she brought to the table on the defensive end. In addition to Westbeld, the players most likely to do that are Oregon transfer Kylee Watson and Texas transfer Lauren Ebo.
All three of those players have the size to match up with the ACC’s bigger post players, and each of the three gives this frontcourt a unique look – Westbeld’s shooting, Watson’s finishing, Ebo’s rebounding. What they don’t bring, at least on paper, is rim protection. None of the three have ever averaged over a block per game. No one on the Irish roster has.
Being without a premier shot blocker isn’t a defensive death sentence, but it puts more pressure on the perimeter defenders. In Notre Dame’s case, those are perimeter defenders who are used to having a swat machine behind them, so this season will be about adjusting to life without Dodson.
NC State
Can the new pieces mesh quickly enough to keep this team in the top 10?
NC State entered last season with as much roster continuity as just about anybody, as the entire rotation returned from the year before. This season? Not so much. The Wolfpack list 11 players on their 2022-23 roster; only three of them played at least 13 minutes per game for NC State last season.
Diamond Johnson, Jada Boyd, and Jakia Brown-Turner will have to do a lot of heavy lifting in the experience department, as the other eight players are either new to the team or new to their role. Camille Hobby is the only other returning player that has seen meaningful minutes before, and she could be an X-factor for this squad.
New to the roster are transfers River Baldwin (Florida State), Mimi Collins (Maryland), and Saniya Rivers (South Carolina). Between that trio and the four end-of-bench returners who may see increased responsibilities, this season will look a lot different than last for the majority of players on this team.
In that sense, NC State is probably the team with the most questions of any on this list. The Final Four ceiling is still there if the talent comes together, but the floor is much lower than it was last year. Wes Moore is a phenomenal coach, and his ability to bring this group together and establish its on-court chemistry should tell us exactly how good he is.
NC State opens the season with four very winnable games, but Moore will only have about two weeks to develop his team’s new identity before a November 20 matchup with UConn. That one should tell us quite a bit about who this team is.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!