Grading The Trade: Loyd, Plum find new homes
Breaking down the major deal that's reportedly sending two former No. 1 overall picks to new teams and a key draft pick to Seattle
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It's not official yet - we'll get into the details of the reasons for that a little later - but according to multiple reports the first major event of 2025 WNBA free agency has been agreed. Jewell Loyd's decade in Seattle is over, as she goes to Las Vegas; Kelsey Plum is moving on from the Aces to Los Angeles; and the Storm end up with a package including Chinese center Li Yueru and the No. 2 overall pick in the upcoming 2025 draft. There is also a collection of other picks moving around, including the No. 9 going from Seattle to LA, and Las Vegas's 2026 first-rounder going to Seattle. It's a complicated deal involving star players who clearly wanted moves and had specific destinations in mind, so let's take a look at who might come out ahead.
Jewell Loyd and the Aces
Even though her position was much less public than Loyd's, it had seemed like something was less than perfect between Plum and the Aces for a while. In recent years they had consistently been able to extend the contracts of their core players before they reached free agency, so the simple fact that Plum's deal had run out and necessitated coring her suggested she probably wasn't happy. Given that, you can see why the Aces made the move to replace her with Loyd. The former Storm star has a decade of consistent production as a perimeter scorer, has been effective in the past playing off other dominant stars like Breanna Stewart, and has a familiarity with several of the key Aces players from their time together with USA Basketball. They could've tried to deal with LA directly and acquired that No. 2 pick themselves, expecting to add Olivia Miles of Notre Dame, Kiki Iriafen of USC, or even exciting young French post Dominique Malonga, but that would've involved more risk and unknowns. This is as close as they were likely to come to rolling out a very similar unit to the group that has won two of the last three WNBA championships.
However, this move carries its own risks. Loyd's never shot the highest field-goal percentage in the world, but since she was given the green light to take every shot available on the dreadful 2023 Storm, her average has dropped precipitously. She shot 37% from the field that year, followed by 36% in 2024, even when Skylar Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike were added to the squad to provide significantly more talent around her. Loyd continued to take far too many off-balance and forced shots despite no longer needing to carry the offense alone, and her 3-point shooting fell to its worst level since her rookie season. Of course, according to reports she was very unhappy with her treatment in Seattle, which may have affected her performance. She also may fit in better in Las Vegas where she'll know A'ja Wilson is the clear No. 1 option and Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young are already firmly entrenched as key parts of the squad. But the player they're getting to replace Plum simply hasn't been as good as Plum over the last couple of years. Loyd may be a slightly better defender, but there's not a lot in that anymore. Plum’s been the more dangerous outside sniper and also offered a secondary point guard option behind Gray, a position that Loyd has never been particularly comfortable with. Young will have to slide over more, or the Aces will need a reliable backup option at the point.
Loyd is also expensive, bringing her supermax salary with her from Seattle (making her comfortably the highest-paid player on the team). Las Vegas’s stars have consistently signed for less than they could’ve demanded, enabling a stronger roster to be built around them, but there’s no changing Loyd’s base salary figure. They have Kiah Stokes and Megan Gustafson on non-guaranteed deals, which increases their flexibility, and we’ve consistently seen players sign in Las Vegas for below market value, but it makes things more difficult. Players from last year’s roster like Tiffany Hayes and Alysha Clark could get higher offers from elsewhere, and free agency shopping may require asking targets to take a discount.
The Aces also gave up their 2026 first-rounder. The strong probability is that it'll be a late-first, and with two more expansion teams being added next year it could be as low as No. 15 overall. But it's a chip that could've been used in a separate deal, and there's always the chance that something disastrous like an A'ja Wilson injury could happen. We don't really know what the Aces would look like without Wilson for an extended period. So there's risk and opportunity cost there, even with the No. 13 pick in this year's draft coming back the other way.
So I get it. This move makes sense when you're trying to keep a proven veteran core around Wilson and make another run at a title while sending Plum where she wanted to go. But for it to be a real success, it relies on Loyd bouncing back to levels significantly above what we've seen the last couple of years. That's certainly possible, but she's also 31 years old. The slope tends to be downwards at that stage. I'd have been tempted to roll the dice with the No. 2 pick.
Las Vegas: C+
For Loyd herself, this seems perfect. She gets out of Seattle as requested. She goes to an organisation that's already a title contender but just had a dip by the standards of previous years, so she'd get a significant share of the credit if they bounce back up for another ring. She doesn't have to carry the offense on her own, but Plum's average of over 14 attempts per game over the last three years shows that there are plenty of shots available for Loyd to fire up. And as would've been the case wherever she went, Loyd will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season and can't be cored again (barring rule changes in a new Collective Bargaining Agreement). If she decides Las Vegas isn't for her and, say, she wants to go home to Chicago, then she'll be free to do so in 12 months.
Loyd: A
Kelsey Plum and the Sparks
Plum on the Sparks makes a lot of sense. She grew up in California, which is likely a central part of why Los Angeles was her preferred destination, and why the Sparks think it's a good bet she'll stick around beyond 2025. They've been fruitlessly searching for consistent production from someone in the backcourt for several seasons, so acquiring a player as proven as Plum fits well. They have a collection of forwards in Dearica Hamby, Azurá Stevens, Rickea Jackson and Cameron Brink who needed perimeter help and Plum gets to go there as a primary option who can help open things up for all of those new teammates.
The only real question mark is the cost. That No. 2 pick could be a very good player, with Miles, Iriafen and Malonga the headline names behind UConn's Paige Bueckers in what may well be a very strong class. That player would've been on a similar career timeline to Jackson and Brink, and having quality talent on rookie-scale contracts is vitally important when practically every veteran in the league is about to become a free agent ahead of the new CBA in 2026. They will have the option to core Plum ahead of 2026 (again, barring rule changes), so she probably won't be just a one-year rental even if the relationship doesn't work out well, but that means coring players like Hamby and Stevens wouldn't be an option and they could walk away for nothing. Part of the logic is that no one is 100% sure which players will be in the draft pool. Bueckers and Miles could potentially go back to school, and as with all international prospects, Malonga may not show up immediately. If the draft is shorn of those top-end talents, that No. 2 pick becomes much less valuable. But at the moment that seems unlikely. Both Bueckers and Miles seem likely to enter the draft, and if Bueckers does force Dallas to trade her, that No. 2 pick could've been the top piece in a package for LA to try to get her.
There's also the element that if Plum really was committed to wanting to play in LA, if they'd waited a year the Sparks might've got her for nothing as a free agent. Then maybe she'd have been playing alongside Miles (or whomever), rather than replacing her.
But on a talent and fit basis, this is good for LA. Plum should bring some solidity and consistency to their backcourt, whether as a ballhandler or a scorer. She could play either spot, so would fit alongside a pass-first point guard like Julie Allemand or as the lead ballhandler next to any of LA's rotating cast of guards (or another free agent addition). Having given up their 2026 first-round pick in the deal with Seattle that led to selecting Jackson last year, there was also less incentive to be bad again in 2025, hence this move targeting immediate improvement. They also got the No. 9 pick back, so if everyone does enter the draft this year they at least have a shot to add another young piece to their rotation. Li Yueru is a talented big and still only 25, but still more prospect than proven WNBA player. They can live with throwing her into a deal like this when they already have so much post talent.
Los Angeles: B
Plum has to be happy, given she's getting what she wanted. She'll see more of the ball in LA than Las Vegas, without Gray or Young on the perimeter or a superstar like Wilson to feed inside. But the grass may not necessarily be as green as it appears from the other side. This is still something of a building project in LA, with Jackson developing and Brink on her way back from a major injury. Beyond that, it's Hamby and a mish-mash of role players and oft-injured talents that aren't quite what she's used to from the Aces. Los Angeles is typically an attractive destination for free agents, and if everything clicks here it could work out great, but if winning was the priority she's likely taken a step back.
Plum: B+
Seattle Storm and...?
In the end, I think Seattle have to be relatively happy with their return from this deal. They had a star who was publicly unhappy and demanding out (and who only had one year left on her contract and was uncoreable afterwards). Plum apparently didn't want to head back to the area where she went to college. LA weren't giving up Jackson or Brink. So they managed to get the only other asset that I said I'd be happy with as the headline piece coming back the other way. They had to give up the No. 9, but moving up to No. 2 in this class could prove to be incredibly worthwhile.
Of course, it does mean that for at least a year the roster may be somewhat unbalanced between building with youth and trying to win now. Diggins-Smith is 34 and likely went to Seattle expecting to contend, while Ogwumike seems expected to re-sign but could still have second thoughts if she thinks losing Loyd means a significant step back. However, with Gabby Williams potentially back in the fold for a full season, someone like Miles could slide into the backcourt alongside Diggins-Smith and play an effective complementary role to the veterans. Or, inevitably, there will be suggestions that the No. 2 could be the start of a package to move up to No. 1 for Bueckers if she's determined to avoid playing for Dallas. The Storm, of course, have a fellow UConn guard with her number in the rafters who would likely offer positive reports about her experiences in Seattle.
On top of the No. 2, Seattle get to take a look at Li, who could provide solid and physical (and importantly, cheap) backup in the paint. They also get yet another first-round pick from Las Vegas, giving them three in 2026. An unfortunate side aspect of this deal for Seattle is that they probably made the Sparks better, because the other 2026 first they own is LA's (from last year's trade that gave up the pick that became Jackson in order to shed Kia Nurse's salary so they could sign Diggins-Smith and Ogwumike). But if they don't end up packaging them in another deal, they now have an array of shots to end up well-positioned in the 2026 draft. Dropping Loyd’s supermax salary with only a potential rookie-scale contract in return ($249,032 down to $78,831 if they simply take a player at No. 2) also gives them more room to manoeuvre this year. Even if Williams signs her supermax core qualifying offer and it takes the max to bring Ogwumike back, they’d have over $418,000 for the final four or five spots on the roster. That’s enough to potentially add some genuine depth, rather than be forced to fill out the bench with young and minimum-salary backups.
So ultimately, given they were forced to deal Loyd, not too bad. As detailed in the Las Vegas section above, it might not have been a bad idea to move on from her anyway. If they want to stay veteran then they could likely move the No. 2 on for someone else to play on the wing (Ariel Atkins? Allisha Gray?), but I'm a big Miles fan and would personally just hold onto it unless they're moving up even further in the draft. This could be the first step in the next generation of the Storm, a franchise whose winning squads have always been built around star players they drafted themselves.
Seattle: A-
Extras
Sign-and-trade deals in the WNBA involve adding an Exhibit 7 section to the standard player contract, which requires the team to trade the player to a specific destination within 48 hours of signing. Given new contracts can't be signed until Feb 1, that's likely why none of this will be official until Saturday. Waiting until then also means that Plum doesn't necessarily have to sign for the supermax value that comes with her core qualifying offer. She'll likely only want to sign for one year, given the impending new CBA, but we've seen plenty of players take less money in recent years to give their teams more room to add to the roster elsewhere. She can legally sign for anything from the veteran minimum up to the supermax. It then counts for her as a year played under core designation (assuming she shows up and plays in 2025), but she doesn't fill the core spot for either Las Vegas or Los Angeles. Both teams would be free to acquire players cored elsewhere like Satou Sabally or Alyssa Thomas (which I'm only making clear because I've seen so much confusion on this issue).
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Kind of a nothingburger of a blockbuster. Outside of the pick it’s almost net zero every which way.
Agree with your grades for each player and the Storm. My take is the Storms strength is in its depth.