Tulin's Treasures: Thrilling Thursday Gives Way to Clash of Contenders
Aftermath of Thursday’s drama, a preview of the weekend’s marquee matchup and something worth knowing about 22 other ranked games in today’s Tulin’s Treasures
You’re reading Tulin’s Treasures, our daily article with the latest stats and insights on the women’s game. This article is free for all, but starting next Tuesday it’ll be available as part of our premium tier for either $5 monthly or $50 annually. Be sure to subscribe to receive future installments.
South Carolina hosts Texas in weekend’s only matchup of ranked teams
The biggest game of the season so far is on tap Sunday as the teams ranked first (South Carolina) and second (Texas) in HHS rating square off in Columbia. Both squads were in action last night, with South Carolina taking the court for the first time since losing Ashlyn Watkins and Texas hosting another highly-rated opponent in Alabama.
The Gamecocks looked very much like the Gamecocks while cruising past Texas A&M, leading by 15 after a quarter, 20 at halftime and 30 early in the third en route to a 90-49 win. Freshman phenom Joyce Edwards led the way with 19 points, one off her career-high and her fifth double-digit outing in her last six games. That’s as many times as she scored 10+ in her first 10 outings as a Gamecock.
Texas did the same thing to Alabama that it’s done to just about everyone else this season: whatever it wanted. The Longhorns led 29-7 after a quarter and held Alabama to single digits in the first three frames during an 84-40 romp to improve to 3-0 in SEC play. The Crimson Tide were notably without leading scorer Sarah Ashlee Barker for the second straight game, but even mentioning that feels like patronizing Alabama given the thoroughness of Texas’ dominance. Madison Booker led the way with 21 points on 8-for-10 shooting while Texas’ starters hit 56.1% from the field.
It’s hard to find areas in which either team doesn’t excel statistically — their Lobo’s Look breakdown is very green. Both teams rank in the top 20 in D-I in all of the following categories:
Points per 100 possessions: Texas (1st, 118.7), SC (7th, 115.9)
Opponent points per 100 possessions: Texas (5th, 72.3), SC (15th, 76.3)
Scoring margin per 100 possessions: Texas (+46.4, 1st), SC (8th, +39.4)
Field-goal percentage: Texas (6th, 49.6%), SC (18th, 47.2%)
Points per play: Texas (7th, 0.97), SC (9th, 0.95)
Opponent points per play: Texas (6th, 0.65), SC (14th, 0.66)
Offensive rebounding rate: Texas (1st, 46.0%), SC (10th, 41.0%)
Total rebounding rate: Texas (4th, 59.1%), SC (11th, 57.4%)
Offensive turnover rate: Texas (11th, 14.1%), SC (4th, 13.4%)
On top of their shared excellence in most areas, it doesn’t look like either team is very well suited to expose the other’s most obvious flaws.
One area where Texas struggles somewhat is sending opponents to the line, ranking 256th in D-I in opponent FT rate. The Gamecocks probably aren’t the opponent to exploit that, though, as they’re 286th in free-throw rate. They are a pretty good free-throw shooting team when they get there (53rd, 75.4%), but getting there isn’t a strength.
Texas is also probably not the opponent to exploit South Carolina’s biggest deficiency, defending the perimeter. SC is 232nd in D-I allowing opponents to make 32.0% from deep while its opponents attempt 26.8% of their shots from beyond the arc, a top-100 rate in D-I. Texas is in the middle of the pack making 30.3% from deep this season and just 15.3% of its field-goal attempts come from beyond the arc, the second-lowest rate in D-I.
The winner will remain perfect in SEC play, though of course with a long way to go (including a rematch in Austin) and the likes of Alabama, Oklahoma, LSU and Tennessee lurking. That group is also South Carolina’s next four opponents. Kentucky is also tied with South Carolina, Texas and LSU at 3-0 in conference.
Texas will take part in its first AP top-five matchup since a loss at UConn early in the 2022-23 season and will look for its first win in an AP top-five matchup since one against Texas A&M early in the 2014-15 season. The Longhorns are 2-1 in road games against AP top-five opponents since the start of the 2020-21 season (the most recent game was the aforementioned loss at UConn).
South Carolina is welcoming an AP top-five opponent to Columbia for the first time since throttling then-No. 3 LSU 88-64 in Feb. 2023, its third straight home win over a top-five opponent (all of three were top-five matchups with SC ranked No. 1, because it’s South Carolina).
This is Texas’ first time playing in Columbia and the first meeting between South Carolina and Texas since a 62-34 Gamecocks win in San Antonio in the 2021 Elite Eight. The series is split 2-2 all-time, with Texas winning the first two meetings at home in the 1988 NCAA Tournament and in Nov. 2005, and SC winning the last two in Dec. 2016 and the aforementioned 2021 game.
Picking up the pieces from a thrilling Thursday
Kailyn Gilbert’s circus shot lifts LSU over Tennessee in final seconds
LSU and Tennessee went blow-for-blow for 40 minutes, but it was the Tigers who came out on top thanks to Kailyn Gilbert’s remarkable bucket with under a second to play to break a tie at 87.
The Tigers passed their toughest test with the road win over a top-10 opponent in HHS rating, just their third win over a team ranked higher than 50th this season and first true road win over a team in the top 100. Gilbert had 22 of the Tigers’ 26 bench points, joined by both Aneesah Morrow (23 points, 21 rebounds) and Flau’Jae Johnson (20 points, 8 rebounds) in scoring 20+. Morrow had her second 20-20 game of the season, the only D-I player to have two of them so far (the rest of D-I has six 20-20 games combined).
Tennessee came up a bucket short for a second straight game but certainly answered some questions about the legitimacy of its 13-0 start. Perhaps most impressive was the Lady Vols’ ability to hang with LSU despite forcing fewer than half as many turnovers (14) as they came in forcing on average (27.6, which fell to 26.7). Jewel Spear and Talaysia Cooper combined to score 49 points on 17-for-34 (50%) from the field, but the rest of the team hit 35.7% of their attempts.
Other thrillers: Virginia Tech-Georgia Tech and Oklahoma-Mississippi State end in upsets, Duke-UNC is just upsetting
Georgia Tech fell for the first time in a 105-94 home loss to Virginia Tech in double overtime, ending the best start in school history at 15-0.
The Yellow Jackets got 61 points from Kara Dunn (33) and Tonie Morgan (28), but no one else scored in double-figures. That group includes freshman Dani Carnegie, who entered leading the team with 16 ppg (most among D-I players without a start) and had two points on 1-for-4 from the field before exiting in the third quarter due to an injury. They head to Louisville Sunday followed by a trip to Notre Dame next Thursday.
Virginia Tech completed a surprising 2-0 road trip through Miami and Atlanta to pull its ACC record even at 2-2 after losses by 22 points at Duke last month and by 31 points at home against Florida State last weekend. The Hokies got at least 17 points from all five starters including 20-point games from Carleigh Wenzel (24), Rose Micheaux (20) and Lani White (20), only the second time they’ve had three 20-point scorers in a game in the HHS database. They’ll start a three-game homestand against Wake Forest Sunday.
Mississippi State held off Oklahoma 81-77, sending the Sooners to their second loss in their first three SEC games.
OU came all the way back from a 14-point first-half deficit, led by 19 points and 10 rebounds from Raegan Beers, though she attempted just eight field goals in the game. That’s 10 fewer shots than Payton Verhulst hoisted up en route to scoring 15 points, a recurring trend for the Sooners against top competition. Beers has attempted single-digit field goals in each of her last five games against major conference competition, with 36 field-goal attempts in those five games. Verhulst has at least 11 attempts in the same five games, more than doubling Beers with 79 shots.
Mississippi State avoided a third straight loss after falling to Kentucky and South Carolina by a combined 49 points the previous two games, earning its second win over a team in the HHS top 50 in the process (previously 1-3). They’ll face an opponent outside the top 50 next in Georgia (No. 114 in HHS rating), but six of their 12 remaining regular season games are against top 50 opposition (with HHS No. 51 Florida also on the docket).
Duke and North Carolina’s 53-46 overtime battle was ugly enough that both will likely want to burn the film, but a big win for UNC nonetheless. The Blue Devils and Tar Heels went to halftime tied at 16 and overtime tied at 40, meaning their 24-point second halves each represented a 50% increase over the first half.
Their 80 combined points heading to overtime were the same as Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech each had on the scoreboard as that game simultaneously went to an extra session.
The Georgia Tech duo of Kara Dunn and Tonie Morgan had enough points (61) to win the Duke-North Carolina game by an eight-point margin over UNC’s winning total of 53 (granted Dunn and Morgan had an OT session).
Cal holds off NC State in bicoastal ACC top 25 showdown
The Wolfpack led by six points after a quarter but trailed by the same margin at halftime and never went back in front as the Golden Bears won the first AP Top-25 matchup at Haas Pavilion since 2018.
All five Cal starters finished in double-figures, led by Marta Suárez with 17 points while three others scored exactly 15. That trio included top scorer Ioanna Krimili, who ticked up from her 10-point outing the previous game but is 9-for-29 from the field in those two games.
NC State had a seven-game win streak snapped, falling for the first time since starting the season 4-3. The Wolfpack dropped to 1-4 this season against teams in the top 40 in HHS rating (2-4 against the top 50 to use a more traditional but equally arbitrary threshold).
Notre Dame, Kentucky extend win streaks
Notre Dame cruised to its eighth straight win, leading by double-digits after a quarter and winning every quarter en route to a 100-64 rout of Wake Forest.
Hannah Hidalgo scored 17 of her 23 points in the game’s first 17 minutes and has 20+ points in all eight of Notre Dame’s consecutive wins.
Kentucky backed up an 18-point win at Vanderbilt with a 16-point win at Florida, its seventh straight win overall.
The ‘Cats should be favored in each of their next four games (against Auburn, Georgia, Texas A&M and Arkansas), meaning a 7-0 start to SEC play is on the table before they get into the teeth of the schedule.
They’ve got a pretty favorable SEC schedule overall — they only face South Carolina, Texas, LSU, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Alabama once each, with four of those six games in Lexington.
I hope you’re enjoying this free preview week of Tulin’s Treasures, a premium daily Her Hoop Stats newsletter. If you’ve read my work at HHS or elsewhere, you have a pretty good idea what to expect. That starts with research-driven previews and recaps for all the big games in the non-stop world of women’s hoops, from college basketball (with conference play kicking into high gear), to Unrivaled (with opening night less than two weeks away) and of course the WNBA (with my promise to keep my Liberty fandom out of it to the best of my ability). We’ll also have fun when the moment calls for it, and at some point I’ll probably find an excuse to make it about Taylor Swift.
And now for something completely different worth knowing about 22 more AP top 25 games
Northwestern (7-9, 0-5) at #1 UCLA (16-0, 5-0)
UCLA’s 16-0 start ties the best in program history, matching the Michaela Onyenwere-led 2019-20 team. The Bruins look to reach 17-0 for the first time against a Northwestern team which is No. 153 in HHS rating.
#3 Notre Dame (13-2, 4-0) at Clemson (10-6, 3-2)
Notre Dame looks for its ninth straight win since losing to TCU and Utah in the Cayman Islands, and Hannah Hidalgo looks for her ninth straight 20-point game coinciding with the win streak. One thing to watch for is if Maddy Westbeld moves into the starting five after posting 14 points in 18 minutes off the bench Thursday in her second game of the season, and who gets bumped to the bench if she does.
Penn State (9-7, 0-5) at #4 USC (15-1, 5-0)
The Trojans have won 11 straight since losing to Notre Dame, tied for the fifth-longest active streak in D-I and tied for second-longest among teams with a loss (trails LSU, UCLA, Ohio State and Grand Canyon, tied with Kansas St). USC trailed for more than half of Wednesday’s 79-74 win at Maryland but closed on an 18-6 run to avoid its second loss this season.
#7 UConn (14-2, 5-0) at Georgetown (8-7, 1-3)
Paige Bueckers will miss another game, but Geno Auriemma said Wednesday that there’s a chance she could return next week. The Huskies won 81-27 at home against Xavier without her but will go on the road to face a team that’s 175 spots higher than the Musketeers in HHS rating (Georgetown is No. 128, Xavier is No. 303).
#8 Maryland (14-1, 4-1) at Wisconsin (10-6, 1-4)
The Terps missed 14 of their final 18 field-goal attempts in Wednesday’s loss to USC, including three distinct streaks of at least four straight misses. They were hitting 41.1% from the field early in the fourth quarter and finished the game at 36.5%.
Oregon (12-4, 3-2) at #9 Ohio State (15-0, 4-0)
Jaloni Cambridge has scored 49 points over the last two games, her first two 20-point outings since scoring 31 in her OSU debut in November. She had 22 of her 29 points after halftime Wednesday at Michigan as OSU rallied after the break to improve to 15-0 for the second time in three seasons.
Texas A&M (8-7, 1-2) at #10 Oklahoma (13-3, 1-2)
Oklahoma will look to bounce back from Thursday’s loss at Mississippi State and to avoid falling to 1-3 in SEC play. The Sooners have road games against South Carolina and LSU to look forward to this month, but if they can make it to February, things ease up. They won’t see South Carolina, LSU, Texas or Tennessee between the end of January and the SEC Tournament.
#11 TCU (16-1, 4-0) at Texas Tech (12-5, 1-3)
TCU is already the deepest it’s ever gone into a season before taking a second loss, looking for its eighth straight win since being routed by South Carolina. The Horned Frogs are just two Big 12 wins shy of matching the six they posted last season, which were their most since going 13-5 in conference in 2019-20.
#12 Kansas State (16-1, 4-0) at BYU (10-5, 1-3)
Kansas State has been as dominant as any team in the country, winning its last 11 games by at least 17 points including Wednesday’s 24-point road win over a Utah team in the top 20 in HHS rating. The Wildcats’ +570 scoring margin is the second-best in D-I this season and they’re one of only three teams with a margin of +500 or better so far.
#13 Georgia Tech (15-1, 3-1) at Louisville (11-5, 4-1)
The most important question for Georgia Tech after Thursday night is the status of Dani Carnegie. If they’re without her for the next two games at Louisville and Notre Dame, their unbeaten start could quickly give way to a losing streak.
#14 Duke (12-4, 3-1) at Virginia (14-3, 2-2)
Duke looks to bounce back from a miserable outing in Thursday’s loss at UNC, posting its worst offensive rating in a game since Dec. 2019 at South Carolina and its third-worst in the HHS database. This is one of just two games left on the regular season schedule against an opponent outside the HHS top 100 (also Feb. 13 at Wake Forest).
Auburn (9-7, 0-3) at #15 Kentucky (14-1, 3-0)
The Wildcats continue to perform more like their AP ranking than their metrics (No. 23 in Friday’s NET, No. 38 in HHS rating), most notably in an 18-point road win last weekend over a Vanderbilt team ahead of them in both metrics. They’re looking for a ninth straight win since losing at North Carolina and a seventh win this season over a team in the top 75 in both the NET and HHS rating.
#16 Tennessee (13-2, 1-2) at Arkansas (8-10, 1-2)
Tennessee has lost its last two games after starting 13-0, but it’s left zero doubt it can play with top competition after taking both Oklahoma and LSU down to the wire. The Lady Vols will have several more opportunities to knock off a top team, with a five-game stretch including Texas, South Carolina, UConn and LSU starting in two Thursdays.
#17 West Virginia (13-2, 3-1) at Oklahoma State (13-2, 3-1)
West Virginia heads to Oklahoma State (No. 34 in HHS rating) looking for its first win over a team in the HHS top 50, with five-point losses to HHS No. 2 Texas (on a neutral floor) and at HHS No. 47 Colorado currently the Mountaineers’ only setbacks. They’re 13-0 against teams outside the top 50 with all 13 wins by at least 13 points.
Boston College (10-7, 1-3) at #19 North Carolina (14-3, 2-2)
UNC’s win over Duke Thursday was anything but pretty, but the Tar Heels got the job done to avoid an 0-3 start in ACC home games and 1-3 start in conference play overall. They get a reprieve from HHS top-20 opponents for a while after facing Notre Dame and Duke back-to-back, with their next four opponents outside the top 75 and their next nine outside the top 20.
#18 Alabama (15-2, 2-1) at Ole Miss (11-4, 2-1)
Alabama saw its six-game win streak snapped Thursday at Texas, but perhaps more to the point the Crimson Tide came up woefully short in their first opportunity to prove they can play with the SEC’s best. They’ll need to get Sarah Ashlee Barker back on the floor quickly with a home game against South Carolina following this trip to Oxford and with only two games against teams outside the HHS top 100 left in the regular season.
Washington (12-4, 3-1) at #20 Michigan State (12-3, 2-2)
Michigan State’s dropped three of four after starting 11-0, all away from home against teams in the top 35 in HHS rating. The Spartans return home from a loss at Nebraska to face a Washington team on a five-game win streak but 0-3 against teams in the top 30 in HHS rating.
#21 NC State (11-4, 3-1) at Stanford (9-6, 1-3)
The Wolfpack will look for their best win of the season so far according to HHS rating. NC State’s seven-game win streak was snapped Thursday at Cal, leaving this opportunity to salvage a 1-1 record on the cross-country road trip. Stanford had dropped three straight and five of six before beating Florida State Thursday night for its first ACC win.
Houston (4-11, 0-4) at #22 Utah (12-3, 3-1)
Utah’s looking to bounce back from Wednesday’s 24-point home loss to Kansas State, just its second setback in 11 games under interim coach Gavin Petersen. Top scorer Gianna Kneepkens has had her two lowest-scoring games of the season in succession with a combined 21 points on 7-for-16 (43.8%) from the field. She averaged 18.1 ppg and made 50.4% of her 10.8 field-goal attempts per game over the first 13 games this season.
Indiana (11-4, 3-1) at #23 Iowa (12-4, 2-3)
Iowa lost its second straight game Thursday at Illinois and dropped to 4-4 since starting life after Caitlin Clark 8-0. The Hawkeyes also fell to 1-4 against the top 40 in HHS rating — their next two opponents (Indiana and Nebraska) are each ahead in the top 40, though Iowa faces each of them at home.
Florida State (13-3, 3-1) at #24 California (15-2, 3-1)
Cal improved to 2-0 against the HHS top 20 and 6-1 against teams in the top 70 in HHS rating in Thursday’s win over NC State, with a chance to add another top-50 win against Florida State. The Seminoles had a five-game win streak snapped Thursday at Stanford and are 1-2 against teams ranked in the HHS top 40 (Cal is No. 37).
#25 Michigan (10-5, 1-3) at Purdue (7-8, 0-4)
Michigan needs a “get right” game after letting a double-digit lead slip away against Ohio State Wednesday during its third straight loss and fourth in five games. The Wolverines hit the road to face the Big Ten’s third-worst team according to HHS rating in Purdue, who is on a three-game losing streak of its own and coming off a 34-point home loss to UCLA.
Thanks for reading Tulin’s Treasures. This article is free for all, but starting next Tuesday it’ll be available as part of our premium tier for either $5 monthly or $50 annually. Be sure to subscribe to receive future installments.