ACC Recap: UNC downs Louisville, NC State captures regular-season crown
The Tar Heels and Wolfpack picked up program-defining wins during a chaotic week in the ACC
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If you told me seven days ago that four teams would go 2-0 on the week in the ACC, I wouldn’t have batted an eye. If you told me those four teams would be NC State, North Carolina, Miami, and Virginia, I would have laughed in your face. This level of parity is exactly what makes college basketball one of the most exciting sports in the world. You think you have a grasp on what each team is made of and then 40 minutes later none of that even mattered.
With Louisville’s upset loss and two blowout victories for the Wolfpack, NC State officially captured at least a share of the ACC regular-season title for the first time in 32 years. They also secured the No. 1 seed in the upcoming ACC tournament. It’s a long awaited accomplishment for Wes Moore and the NC State program, and they deserve all the praise for the work they have put in not only this season but the past few years.
Weekly Update:
NC State (AP: 3, HHS: 3, NET: 2) - While Wake Forest and Syracuse are not the highest quality of opponent, it’s hard to top a 36.5 average margin of victory for a week. The Wolfpack are playing fantastic basketball at the right time and will try to keep it going when they travel to Virginia Tech on Sunday for the last game of the regular season.
The Wolfpack only committed four turnovers against Wake Forest and grabbed 59 boards against Syracuse. That’s the least turnovers and third-most rebounds in an ACC contest this season. Not to mention they are still a top-5 three-point shooting team in the country. NC State can beat you in a variety of ways with a variety of different players, which is why they are national championship contenders.
North Carolina (AP: 18, HHS: 11, NET: 5) - For the sake of Tar Heel fans and the program itself, I might have to keep diminishing the accomplishments of North Carolina. Every article in which I have questioned their validity has been directly followed by a massive victory. On Thursday, UNC took down Louisville at home 66-65 in an epic showdown of grit and determination. Despite shooting poorly, the Tar Heels got key offensive rebounds and went to the line for twenty free-throw attempts, with those extra possessions and points proving to be pivotal. Kennedy Todd-Williams made crucial baskets down the stretch and finished with a game-high 19 points.
It is North Carolina’s first top-25 win of the season and their first-ever ACC victory over Louisville. It is also a huge win in the Tar Heels’ pursuit of a double-bye in the ACC tournament. UNC then went on the road and beat Florida State 64-49, with Deja Kelly scoring 26 points on her way to the ACC Player of the Week award. While North Carolina is still not as polished as their more-experienced conference opponents, they finally have a marquee win to silence their critics (me).
Miami (AP: NA, HHS: 80, NET: 60) - The odds are still not in their favor, but could this week have been the catalyst for a Miami Cinderella run? The Hurricanes secured a routine win over Pittsburgh and then traveled to Georgia Tech for their second matchup against the Yellow Jackets this year. The first time these two teams met resulted in Miami’s only ranked win of the season, a 46-45 home victory, and they once again proved to be a matchup nightmare for the No. 16 team in the nation.
ACC Freshman of the Week Ja’Leah Williams and backcourt partner Kelsey Marshall played excellent perimeter defense, forcing tough looks out of the Yellow Jacket guards. Karla Erjavec led the way with 12 points en route to a 51-39 win, the fewest points Georgia Tech has scored in a game all season.
The advanced metrics do not favor Miami, but looking back at all of their losses, it is likely only one will be to a team that does not make the tournament. If the Hurricanes can compete against Virginia Tech or even make it to the semifinals of the ACC tournament, they have a very compelling argument for an at-large bid over Duke, Boston College, or Florida State.
Virginia (AP: NA, HHS: 264, NET: 165) - While there are no postseason implications for the recent Cavalier success (barring a truly magical ACC tournament run), it should be celebrated nonetheless. After starting 0-15 in conference games, Virginia is riding a two-game winning streak, beating Duke and Pittsburgh at home. It can be so grueling to put your heart into every game just to lose night after night, so I am happy for the players and coaches that they were able to get into the W column. Junior Taylor Valladay scored 30 points in the win over Pittsburgh. With four starters returning next season, the future is brighter than the past for Virginia.
Louisville (AP: 4, HHS: 4, NET: 4) - While they did not go undefeated this week like the teams above, the Cardinals picked up a very strong 70-56 win over Virginia Tech after their loss to North Carolina. After watching the Hokies demolish Syracuse in person on Thursday, I was expecting a closer matchup between these two ranked teams, but the stout Louisville defense held Georgia Amoore and the rest of Virginia Tech’s guards in check. Hailey Van Lith finished with 20 points and Emily Englster added 19 points and 15 rebounds.
But what happened against the Tar Heels? North Carolina out-hustled the Cardinals on the offensive boards and Emily Engslter’s technical foul with 2:27 remaining that fouled her out of the game proved costly. Despite shooting the ball better and being the overall better team, the Cardinals let their chance at a third consecutive outright ACC regular season title slip away.
Luckily for Louisville none of the currently projected two-seeds made a case to move up, so the Cardinals are still hanging on to a one-seed in the NCAA tournament.
ACC Blunders of the Week:
Another two for one this week, with two teams who are falling behind the rest of the ACC. First is Duke, who gave Virginia their first win of the season and then barely beat Clemson. Losing to the Cavaliers is frankly inexcusable for a team on the bubble, and while bracketology predictions still have the Blue Devils in the tournament, I would rather see Boston College or Miami get the chance to continue their season.
Georgia Tech has now lost four of their last five, including to Notre Dame in overtime and Miami this week. While their at-large bid is secure, it is now impossible for the Yellow Jackets to get a double-bye in the ACC tournament. Georgia Tech has struggled offensively all year, and I would implore them to get Lorela Cubaj in more scoring situations. Their best player on the court and a projected first round draft pick, Cubaj only took four shots in the loss to Miami. She and the coaching staff need to be more aggressive in getting her shots around the paint.
Important Game Tracker:
Miami @ No. 23 Virginia Tech, Thursday, February 24th
HHS Winner Prediction: Virginia Tech (88.9%)
Boston College @ Duke, Thursday, February 24th
HHS Winner Prediction: Duke (66.8%)
No. 4 Louisville @ No. 14 Notre Dame, Sunday, February 27th
HHS Winner Prediction: Louisville (69.4%)
No. 3 NC State @ No. 23 Virginia Tech, Sunday, February 27th
HHS Winner Prediction: NC State (69.4%)
James’ Weekly ACC Power Rankings:
Tier 1 (Overall) (ACC)
NC State - (25-3 overall | 16-1 conference) ⇧1
Louisville - (23-3 overall | 14-2 conference) ⇩1
Tier 2
Notre Dame - (20-6 overall | 12-4 conference)
North Carolina - (21-5 overall | 11-5 conference) ⇧2
Virginia Tech - (19-8 overall | 12-4 conference) ⇩1
Georgia Tech - (19-6 overall | 10-6 conference) ⇩1
Tier 3
Boston College - (17-10 overall | 8-8 conference) ⇧1
Miami - (16-10 overall | 9-7 conference) ⇧2
Duke - (16-10 overall | 7-9 conference) ⇩2
Florida State - (14-12 overall | 8-8 conference) ⇩1
Tier 4
Wake Forest - (13-14 overall | 3-13 conference)
Syracuse - (11-15 overall | 4-12 conference)
Clemson - (9-18 overall | 2-14 conference) ⇧1
Virginia - (5-20 overall | 2-15 conference) ⇧1
Pittsburgh - (11-16 overall | 3-13 conference) ⇩2
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