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The Pac-12 made its usual debut in the preseason polls with almost half of the league ranked and a couple more receiving votes, but preseason polls are based on very little. For the media, they’re something to write about. For the fans, they’re something to argue about. What happens when the lights finally go on and games are played?
As it turned out, the media appeared to be very wrong about Arizona, but their take on Stanford was backed up by the results in the early going.
Both teams had some reason to feel disrespected when the preseason polls debuted. The two teams had just played for a national title six months before. Was Arizona really only the No. 22 team in the nation, as the AP voters thought? Should the national champs, who lost very little from a balanced roster, be given the benefit of the No. 1 ranking until other teams took it from them, or was it justifiable to put them behind two other teams? How did the games reflect on the preseason assumptions of pollsters?
No. 1 South Carolina beat then-No. 5 North Carolina State on the road before heading to South Dakota and beating one of the toughest mid-major teams in the country by 31 in their own state. If anyone has questions about who should be No. 1 right now, the Gamecocks’ performance combined with Stanford’s loss at home to Texas closes the book on it.
The loss of Kiana Williams may weigh heavier on the Cardinal than anticipated. The assist-to-turnover numbers for Stanford are concerning in the early going. In their first game against Morgan State, the Cardinal had 20 turnovers and just 18 assists. They were able to beat the Lady Bears 91-36, but that just makes it more alarming that they had more turnovers than assists. What happens when the talent isn’t overwhelmingly on the side of the Cardinal?
That issue is magnified because it wasn’t just about the newcomers struggling to hold onto the ball. Seasoned veterans from last year’s title run had an equally difficult time with ballhandling. Last year’s Final Four Most Outstanding Player Haley Jones had two assists and three turnovers in 22 minutes of play. For Lexie Hull, it was four assists and three turnovers in 19 minutes. Of the returners, Fran Belibi was the standout with three assists and just one turnover against Morgan State.
The problem persisted against Texas. Jones led the team with five assists, but she also led the team with five turnovers. Hull and Cameron Brink both turned the ball over twice without notching an assist. Texas was definitely not Morgan State, so those rates were the downfall of Stanford in their 61-56 loss.
Stanford head coach Tara Vanderveer got another look at her team when they played Portland on Nov. 16. For the first time, the team had more assists than turnovers, but the turnover rate was still high for a team that hopes to defend its title. The Cardinal dished the ball out 20 times while turning it over 15. Jones was able to improve her ballhandling on the way to a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio and a triple-double with 10 assists.
“We made it a little tougher on ourselves than we had to,” Vanderveer said after the Texas loss. “They challenge you with ballhandling and, obviously, with losing Kiana, this was throwing our young or inexperienced point guards into the deep end of the pool.”
The case of Arizona told the opposite story of early-season rankings. It was most interesting precisely because of who the Wildcats faced.
Both Arizona and then-No. 6 Louisville lost a dominant point guard who scored about 20 points and dished out roughly four assists per game last season. To AP voters, that meant Arizona was, at best, a fringe Top 25 team, but Louisville was a solid Top 10 team.
The argument could be made that the Cardinals had more balanced scoring last season that could withstand the loss of Dana Evans’ offense while the Wildcats were more impacted by the loss of Aari McDonald on that end of the court. That’s a legitimate argument, but it’s also an argument that ignores defense.
Arizona has been a defensive-oriented team since head coach Adia Barnes took over. The Wildcats have had a lower defensive rating each year since they bottomed out with six wins in 2017-18.
What that means is that they have cut their opponents’ scoring per 100 possessions by a significant margin almost every season under Barnes. Since that 2017-18 year, Arizona has allowed fewer points per 100 possessions every season. On a side note, they have also allowed fewer points per 100 possessions than Louisville every year during that period.
In short, the loss on offense doesn’t necessarily mean a defensive-oriented team cannot recover, and it was certainly interesting to see a 16-place difference between the preseason rankings of the two teams.
Of course, McDonald also had a significant impact on the defense of Arizona. She was a two-time Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year. The fact remains that a player like Sam Thomas was still in Tucson.
Thomas has been Pac-12 All-Defense for those same two years, and there’s a solid argument that she was a linchpin in the Arizona defense on equal standing with McDonald. A six-foot player who has the quickness, the anticipation, the savvy, and, most importantly, the desire to guard one through five is a rarity, but it’s one that doesn’t always impress those who rely on stats to evaluate players.
Close observers of Arizona know that a strong offensive player will often be left on the bench over a player who plays strong defense. It has been Barnes’ philosophy since she returned to Tucson. While McDonald was an important part of the defensive success of the past three seasons, the defensive principles didn’t disappear with her, nor did most of the players who put the principles into practice last year.
It raises the question of what goes into preseason polls and the impact they have on visibility in the sport. It also brings up the issue of what it means to have respect and how long it takes to get that respect - and what it takes to lose it.
“Maybe it’s me, but they always doubt what we do and I think we’re pretty good,” Barnes said. “And I think that we just earned some respect today, and I like that.”
When the first AP poll of the regular season came out, Barnes and her Wildcats had earned some respect. They sat at No. 11.
Voting for the best
As a member of the local media that covers the Pac-12, I have a vote in the weekly polls for Pac-12 Player of the Week and Freshman of the Week. I will discuss who I voted for and why each week. For week one, I was in line with the majority of my peers.
Pac-12 Player of the Week
My vote: Cate Reese, Arizona
Winner: Cate Reese, Arizona
Of the players nominated, Reese didn’t post the highest averages in any category. She averaged 17.5 points per game and 5.0 rebounds. Part of that was because Barnes played her starters very little in the opening game against Cal State Northridge. Yet, Reese still scored 14 points in just 18 minutes that night.
What got Reese the vote was that she was the player who stepped up and dominated in the biggest game of the opening week. Putting up 21 points on 6-for-12 shooting (including hitting three of five 3-pointers) against a top 10 team was an accomplishment no one else in the conference came close to.
Pac-12 Freshman of the Week
My vote: Jayda Curry, California
Winner: Jayda Curry, California
The Golden Bears had a strong freshman class join them last year before the pandemic and injuries decimated their roster. They have another impressive group this year. Curry was the standout the opening week.
The San Francisco Dons are coming off a 15-11 season, so the opponents weren’t pushovers. Yet, Curry became the first Cal freshman to average over 20 points in her first two college games, averaging 25.0 points against USF and Sacramento State.
It’s a performance that should encourage the Golden Bears’ faithful after a year when they won a single game and dropped contests to Cal State Bakersfield and San Jose State.
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