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As conference leadership mentioned a few times at Pac-12 Media Day, the West Coast’s major conference welcomed five of the top eight (and six of the top 14) recruiting classes this season.
Many of those freshmen are already having an impact on the court. Not only are they getting significant minutes, but several are starting for their teams in the early going.
“Obviously, really good freshmen come to our league,” said Arizona head coach Adia Barnes. “I think that also early you have opportunities to play a lot of people and give opportunities, which is really good for down the line, and I think we all are doing that. Getting them experience now can help you in March, April.”
Teams are busy signing the next class as national letters of intent started coming in on Wednesday, Nov. 9. Those classes once again include many of the best players in the country with five schools landing in ESPN HoopGurlz’s Top 25 rankings for 2023 and a sixth program listed as under consideration for the top 25. Arizona leads the way at No. 3, joining Stanford (No. 7) and USC (No. 10) in the top 10.
The biggest recruiting news came out at the end of the signing period when No. 1 recruit Judea Watkins announced that she would be joining the Pac-12 for one season. Watkins committed to USC, which will play in the league for two more seasons before leaving for the Big Ten. That vaulted the Women of Troy into ESPN’s rankings.
Our three-part rundown of how the 12 teams changed during the offseason ran at the end of the summer. Now, it’s time to talk about real games, who’s been injured since the summer, and how I ranked the teams in the preseason media polls.
Top games, key changes, and opening week results
Three of the top four teams in both the coaches and media’s Pac-12 preseason polls have already watched a player go down with a season-ending injury. When Pac-12 media voting was done, only one of those injuries had occurred. They could upend these projections, but let’s jump in anyway. Teams are listed in the order in which I selected them for the preseason poll.
No. 1 Stanford Cardinal
Pac-12 media poll: 1st
Pac-12 coaches poll: 1st
AP poll: 2nd
WBCA coaches poll: 2nd
Outlook: Is there anything new to say about Stanford? They’re a great team with a great coach, elite size, and a strong tradition. There’s no reason they shouldn’t win the league easily as long as they stay healthy.
Key games (including AP rankings): No. 1 South Carolina (Nov. 20), RV Gonzaga (Dec. 4), No. 11 Tennessee (Dec. 18)
Early results: The Cardinal have already played four games, two of which were on the road. As expected, they have easily handled their four overmatched opponents. The closest score was an opening night 86-48 drubbing of San Diego State.
Tara VanDerveer is still working on a set starting five. The starters in the first three games were Haley Jones, Cameron Brink, Hannah Jump, Kiki Iriafen, and Agnes Emma-Nnopu. In their game against Portland, freshman Talana Lepolo stepped in for Emma-Nnopu.
The Cardinal gear up to face the reigning national champions in a thrilling 1 versus 2 matchup on Sunday.
No. 2 UCLA Bruins
Pac-12 media poll: 4th
Pac-12 coaches poll: 4th
AP poll: The Bruins have been receiving votes. They were 27th with 26 points in the preseason poll then moved 26th with 31 points after week one.
WBCA coaches poll: Receiving votes
Outlook: My vote for UCLA to finish second in the league is one of the major differences in my picks versus those of my peers or the coaches. UCLA has had a lot of bad luck in recent years, but their influx of high-quality freshmen combined with one of the league’s best veterans in Charisma Osborne should be enough to turn it around. The season-ending injury to presumed starter Angela Dugalic is the one thing that could derail them.
Key nonconference game: RV South Dakota State (Nov. 20), No. 1 South Carolina (Nov. 29)
Early results: The Bruins jumped right into things and played three games in the opening week, winning all three. They had relatively close calls against both UC Riverside and Troy. They defeated the Highlanders 64-43, then followed that up with an even closer call in a 95-83 victory over Troy.
Cori Close is also still working on her starting five. She started the group of Charisma Osborne, Emily Bessoir, Dominique Onu, Camryn Brown, and highly-touted freshman Kiki Rice in the opener against Cal Poly. By the second game, there were already changes with freshman Gabriela Jaquez stepping in for Onu. In the third game, Gina Conti took over for Jaquez.
It’s looking like it might take a little while for the Bruins to settle in. It won’t be easy as they face the always formidable South Dakota State Jackrabbits to open the Battle for Atlantis on Saturday, Nov. 19.
No. 3 Arizona Wildcats
Pac-12 media poll: 2nd
Pac-12 coaches poll: 3rd
AP poll: The Wildcats were 19th in the preseason poll but climbed to 18th after the first week.
WBA coaches poll: 19th
Outlook: Arizona has a lot of new faces to integrate, but they are extremely talented new faces. The pure number of new faces kept me from placing the Wildcats higher than third. They returned just five of last year’s 15-player roster. Three of those were starters. Since the preseason polls were released, yet another starter was lost for the season when junior forward Lauren Ware had another patella injury. This was a recurrence of the dislocation she suffered in the middle of the season last year. She recently underwent surgery and will begin rehab.
Off the court, Barnes made a splash by bringing back former Wildcat star and current Atlanta Dream guard Aari McDonald as her director of recruiting operations. McDonald will be in Tucson during the WNBA’s offseason, where she will be able to work for the program while also having access to training facilities.
Key nonconference games: RV Kansas (Dec. 8), No. 17 Baylor (Dec. 18)
Early results: Arizona’s first week of play was dominant on the offensive end, but Barnes will need to work to get her defense to play the way she wants it. That’s a big change for the Wildcats, who are generally known as a defense-first program. That is still Barnes’ goal, but having seven new players including four freshmen will be a challenge on that end of the floor.
Arizona defeated Northern Arizona 113-56 in its regular-season opener. That was just over a week after scoring 104 points in its final exhibition. NAU was coming off a narrow 69-68 loss to Arizona State. The Wildcats followed that up with an 87-47 victory over Cal State Northridge.
Those are big numbers for the team even against lesser competition as demonstrated by comparing them to early games during the years McDonald was running the show at Arizona. Her final year at Arizona was heavily affected by the pandemic, but in 2019 Arizona scored 74 and 65 points in its first two games against similar competition.
Barnes has done a little bit of shifting of her starting five. The four positions that seem to be set are Cate Reese at the five, Esmery Martinez at the four, Jade Loville at the two/three, and Shaina Pellington at the one. In the opening game, Lauren Fields started at the two and Loville at three. Fields gave way to Helena Pueyo in the starting five in the second game. That essentially made Pueyo the three and Loville the two, but they are fairly interchangeable as far as position designation.
No. 4 Oregon Ducks
Media poll: 3rd
Coaches poll: 2nd
AP poll: The Ducks were ranked 20th in the preseason poll, but slipped to 21st after the first week.
WBCA poll: 20th
Outlook: Arizona, Oregon, and UCLA were ultimately a toss-up. The number of points the three teams got in the preseason polls makes it clear that the voters were torn about these three, as well. Coincidentally, Oregon and UCLA also lost significant experience to injury when Sedona Prince’s final college season was wiped out by a tear of ligaments in her elbow. She will enter the WNBA draft in the spring. That was quickly followed by the news that freshman big Kennedy Basham would miss “several weeks” after going down with a knee injury against Northwestern in the season opener.
“We don’t need injuries right now, and one injury when you only have 10 players is magnified,” Oregon head coach Kelly Graves told James Crepea of the Oregonian. “I feel for Kennedy. She had been making great strides. I just really feel for her.”
The injury leaves the Ducks with only one player taller than 6-foot-3 on their roster.
Like Barnes, Graves also decided to bring a recent star back to town when Sabrina Ionescu was hired last week to fill the newly-created position of director of athletic culture.
Key nonconference games: No. 13 North Carolina (Nov. 24), No. 8 Ohio State or RV USF (Dec. 21)
Early results: Oregon got started with a splash, defeating Northwestern 100-57 on Nov. 7. It was a huge debut for freshmen Grace VanSlooten, Chance Gray, and Jennah Isai, all of whom scored in double figures. Isai accomplished the task from off the bench, but she played as many minutes as some of the starters.
The Ducks followed up the win over Northwestern with an equally dominant win over Seattle before traveling to Baton Rouge to play Southern in the first year of the Pac-12/SWAC Legacy Series that includes home-and-home arrangements between programs in both conferences.
The starting five has been stable for the Ducks. With just nine healthy players, there’s not a lot of wiggle room to shake up the lineup. Graves is going with an opening group of Te-Hina Paopao, Endyia Rogers, Gray, VanSlooten, and Phillipina Kyei. With Isai getting the most minutes off the bench, Oregon is getting key contributions from its freshmen. That can be both a good thing and a bad thing, but the Ducks don’t have much choice at this point.
No. 5 Utah Utes
Pac-12 media poll: 5th
Pac-12 coaches poll: 5th
AP poll: The Utes were the first team on the outside looking in for the preseason poll, but moved up to No. 25 after the first poll of the season.
WBCA poll: Receiving votes
Outlook: The question for the Utes was who was going to play point guard. Utah lost two talented fifth-year guards, both of whom decided to return closer to home to play their final year of college basketball. Dru Gylten, who wanted to be closer to her fiance this year, left the team with big shoes to fill.
A second question was whether USC transfer Alissa Pili would be the player she was as a freshman when she won Pac-12 Freshman of the Year or more like the player she was as a sophomore when she wasn’t nearly as feared around the conference.
Utah head coach Lynne Roberts said throughout the offseason that Pili would admit that she did not work as hard as she should have with the Women of Troy, but her new coach has seen her buckle down and is excited about what the junior has brought to the Utes.
Key nonconference games: No. 16 Oklahoma (Nov. 16-win), RV Ole Miss (Nov. 23)
Early results: Roberts has been shifting her starting lineup to find what works. She kicked off the season against Idaho with a starting five of Isabel Palmer, Jenna Johnson, Kennady McQueen, Gianna Kneepkens, and Kelsey Rees. Four days later, Pili stepped in for Rees against Utah Valley. Against Southeastern Louisiana, the change was in the backcourt as Ines Vieira joined Pili, Johnson, McQueen, and Kneepkens at the opening whistle. That is the starting five that stuck for the Utes’ big game against Oklahoma.
Vieira showed the ability to facilitate for her team when she got the nod. She leads the team with 25 assists.
But Pili made the biggest splash, showing signs of being the player she was expected to be after her breakout Pac-12 Freshman of the Year season at USC. The junior leads the Utes with 18 points per game in the early going despite averaging the fewest minutes among the seven players who have started at least one game. She was one of three Utes to score at least 21 points as they dismantled the Sooners.
All of Utah’s four games have been dominant wins. That was expected with the first three, but the fact that they absolutely dominated No. 16 Oklahoma by the score of 124-78 should have them climbing the rankings next week.
No. 6 Washington State Cougars
Pac-12 media poll: 7th
Pac-12 coaches poll: 7th
AP poll: The Cougars received two points from the media to land near the end of the “receiving votes” list.
WBCA poll: None
Outlook: The Cougars have almost all of their team from last year back. This group has been together for a while now. Although point guard is always a big position to fill, head coach Kamie Ethridge has shown that she can get the most out of her players. Given the stability of the program and the fact that Charlisse Leger-Walker is one of the best players in the league, there’s no reason WSU shouldn’t stay in the top half of the league.
Key nonconference games: RV South Dakota State (Nov. 28)
Early results: Most of the early nonconference slate has gone as expected. WSU stands at 3-0 after the first week, but San Francisco gave the Cougars a bit of a scare.
Washington State got away with a 69-63 road victory over the Dons, which isn’t reassuring. USF ended last year at 106 in the NET, so it’s not a loss WSU would have been happy to have. It’s not like the Dons impressed in their other game, either. They beat Division II Cal State East Bay by just 13 before playing the Cougars.
Sophomore Tara Wallack has joined the four returning starters in the starting five. Unlike the teams above them, the Cougars have been stable in their lineup. That gives them the opportunity to continue growing as an established group rather than trying to plug and play with other transfers.
No. 7 Oregon State Beavers
Pac-12 media poll: 6th
Pac-12 coaches poll: 6th
AP poll: None
WBCA poll: Receiving votes
Outlook: It’s difficult to know how the Beavers will be this year. They once again went through a lot of roster shuffling in the offseason. The early season hasn’t given much of a clue, either, with some of their presumed contributors sitting out. The roster changes had a big influence on my feeling that they would finish behind the more stable Washington State Cougars this season.
OSU will certainly be battle-tested by the time it gets to Pac-12 play. They could face two top-five teams before the end of November.
Key nonconference games: No. 4 Iowa (Nov. 25), either RV Duke or No. 5 Connecticut (Nov. 27), No. 15 LSU (Dec. 18)
Early results: The Beavs barely squeaked out a win over Hawai’i in their opener, getting a 61-60 victory. They had a much more comfortable 89-53 win over Seattle, but there are some concerns. Arizona transfer Bendu Yeaney and freshman Timea Gardiner have yet to play this season. The Democrat Herald reported that head coach Scott Rueck chalks those up to minor injuries, but there’s no real clue when they will return.
In the first two contests, Rueck has gone with a starting lineup of Shalexxus Aaron, AJ Marotte, Talia von Oelhoffen, Jelena Mitrovic, and former walkon Noelle Mannen.
Of their highly-touted freshmen, Raegan Beers made a big impact in the team’s win over Seattle. The 6-foot-2 forward had a double-double with 22 points and 11 rebounds in 23 minutes on the court.
No. 8 Colorado Buffaloes
Pac-12 media poll: 8th
Pac-12 coaches poll: 8th
AP poll: None
WBCA poll: None
Outlook: Quay Miller and Jaylyn Sherrod are enough to make the Buffaloes look like a team that should remain at least in the middle of the conference. The question will continue to be about plugging the holes left by the departure of Mya Hollingshed. Did the head coach bring in enough in the way of recruits and transfers to take another step forward?
Key nonconference games: No. 11 Tennessee (Nov. 25)
Early results: The Buffs had a relatively uneventful opening week with wins over New Mexico State and Louisiana. The next step was facing Texas Tech in a true road game. Taking on a Power 5 team on the road is something many of their fellow Pac-12 teams avoid in the first week or two of the season. It was a risk that didn’t pay off for Colorado, as the Buffaloes dropped the game in overtime.
CU has gotten good early production out of Arizona transfer Aaronette Vonleh. The sophomore has started both games for the Buffs, averaging 11 points and three rebounds. It’s Frida Formann and Miller who are carrying the team offensively right now, though.
No. 9 Arizona State Sun Devils
Pac-12 media poll: 12th
Pac-12 coaches poll: 12th
AP poll: None
WBCA poll: None
Outlook: The teams who landed in 9th through 12th in the Pac-12 preseason polls all have serious questions. They could have been ranked in any order coming into the season and it would have made sense. ASU was selected last by both the coaches and the media likely because they have a new coach who had to bring in a lot of transfers.
I placed the Sun Devils at the top of the four schools with the biggest questions for a few reasons, some of which have more to do with the teams behind them than with the Devils. First, I think new head coach Natasha Adair brought in some nice transfers, including former Kentucky guard Treasure Hunt. I also think she was able to retain a few nice pieces from the end of the Charli Turner Thorne era.
Really, though, ASU landed here on my ballot because there were equally significant disruptions at USC, which is prone to losing some of its top players to transfer every year and will have to get through the early part of the season without head coach Lindsay Gottlieb. Washington signed a good recruiting class, but they have not produced in years and will probably still need time. As for Cal, I have given them the benefit of the doubt in previous seasons. They haven’t been able to produce wins on the court. Until they do, they will be a safe bet for 12th in the league.
Key nonconference games: No. 9 Notre Dame (Nov. 25 or 26)
Early results: The Sun Devils had a scare in their first game against NAU. They squeaked by the Lumberjacks by the slimmest margin of 69-68. A few days later, Arizona was hanging 113 points on the same NAU team.
ASU had more comfortable wins against Grambling State at home and Montana State on the road, but they still allowed those teams to hang around long enough for there to be concern about the Sun Devils going forward. Other than their game against Notre Dame in Bimini, the team will not face strong competition until Pac-12 play begins, so it will be tough to judge them for a while.
No. 10 Washington Huskies
Pac-12 media poll: 10th
Pac-12 coaches poll: 10th
AP poll: None
WBCA poll: None
Outlook: With their top 15 recruiting class and some quality transfers, the Huskies may be able to take a step up the ladder this season. With a team that has a lot of new parts and that hasn’t produced winning on the court yet, it’s unwise to pin hopes of considerable improvement on them too early.
Key nonconference games: Washington is the only team in the league which will not play a ranked team or even a team receiving poll votes before Pac-12 play starts.
Early results: The Huskies have two double-digit wins to start the season, but the competition level makes it impossible to tell how good UW will be this year. With a team that has so many new faces and a coach that is in just her second season in the conference, UW needed to do more to win over the doubters. An 87-74 win over Utah Tech (formerly Dixie State) didn’t do that.
No. 11 USC Trojans
Pac-12 media poll: 9th
Pac-12 coaches poll: 9th
AP poll: None
WBCA poll: The Trojans received enough votes to garner five points in the coaches preseason poll.
Outlook: The best news for USC won’t do anything to help them this season. The commitment of Watkins, who will be in uniform for their final season in the Pac-12, is what’s exciting fans this week.
In the offseason, Gottlieb said that she was approaching this as a completely new team due to all of the changes that happened in the offseason. The problem for the coach was that she wasn’t able to be around for much of the preseason when that team was being molded. Gottlieb was out on maternity leave with her second child.
It’s difficult to see the Trojans climbing out of the bottom two this season.
Key nonconference games: No. 3 Texas (Dec. 18)
Early results: In the first week of play, USC has built a 3-0 record. The wins over CSU Bakersfield and Idaho State were easy enough, but the Trojans escaped from San Diego with an eight-point victory. It could be like that for a while.
USC has talent. Destiny Littleton and Kadi Sissoko average double digits in scoring. Rayah Marshall already has 11 blocks in three games while averaging 9.2 points and 8.0 rebounds. The question is what happens when the competition gets tougher for them? Do the numbers stay the same?
No. 12 California Golden Bears
Pac-12 media poll: 11th
Pac-12 coaches poll: 11th
AP poll: None
WBCA poll: None
Outlook: There’s no denying that the Golden Bears have one of the most talented young players in Jayda Curry. There’s also no denying that they have had talented young players on campus for the last few years yet have struggled to win games in the Pac-12. Can they do it this season? It would be great to see, but it’s not something anyone should rely on until they actually can see it.
Key nonconference games: No. 9 Notre Dame (Nov. 12-loss)
Early results: The Golden Bears gave the Fighting Irish all they could handle during the first week of the season. Cal traveled to the Midwest to play Notre Dame in St. Louis, Missouri. No one expected it to be close, but that’s just what it was. The Bears were done in by the opening quarter when they allowed the Irish to score 31 points. Notre Dame outscored them by just two the rest of the way.
Strangely, Cal returned home to play Idaho and only managed a 13-point win over the Vandals. It was a win, but it wasn’t the kind of dominant win that the close game against the Irish suggested might lie in store.
Still, the fight against Notre Dame was a very encouraging result for the Bears. Unfortunately, they have had encouraging results before that didn’t help them turn the corner. With Curry, Evelien Lutje Schipholt, Kemery Martin, and Leilani McIntosh all averaging double figures in the early going, maybe this is the time that the encouraging results turn into a winning record.
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