When WNBA Free Agency Went Wild
Part Two
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The drama continues in the WNBA, as the league has served up yet another big trade since Part One of this analysis came out. First, let’s take a look at how that shakes things up. Restricted free agent Courtney Williams was sent to Atlanta, with forwards Jessica Breland and Nia Coffey moving from the Dream to Phoenix. The Mercury sent veteran guard Briann January to take Williams’s place in Connecticut. A couple of marginal draft picks changed hands as well.
Exactly whose actions led to this trade has been the focus of much debate on social media in the last 24 hours, but now that the deal is done it ultimately doesn’t matter. Atlanta picks up a 25-year-old near-All Star caliber scoring guard who still has room to improve if head coach Nicki Collen can convince her to play a slightly more efficient style. All it cost them was Breland - a useful power forward but one who’s about to turn 32, shot 38% from the field last year, and who they already signed a replacement for in Glory Johnson - plus backup forward Coffey, who’s yet to prove much at all at WNBA level. Adding Williams without giving up Tiffany Hayes or the #4 pick in the upcoming draft makes this a home run for the Dream.
Photo Credit: Chris Poss
The deal also works out nicely for the Mercury. After their free agent losses and various moves they were looking desperately thin at both forward spots, as mentioned in Part One of this piece on Tuesday. Breland gives them a veteran to play the 4 next to Brittney Griner who can defend, rebound, and hopefully move her shooting accuracy back in the right direction with all the space she’ll be in as a 4th or 5th option. Coffey is only 24 and could still improve, and at least gives them an option at small forward with some size (although whether she’s a 3 or a 4 at this level remains unclear).
The question marks with this deal are largely around what Connecticut received. January remains a useful player, but at 33 years old is very much on the downslope of her career. She’s certainly not the dynamic creator that Williams can be, although she can hit the three, which will help the Sun stretch the floor after giving up Shekinna Stricklen. The defensive group of January, Jasmine Thomas and DeWanna Bonner on the perimeter could be downright scary - but it’s not much of a return for a young potential star like Williams.
Now let’s take a look at the moves made by all the remaining WNBA teams over 2020 free agency so far.
Dallas Wings
While the Skylar Diggins-Smith trade was the headline news for Dallas, the Wings made some smaller moves to try to prepare for life after Skylar. One of the picks from the deal with Phoenix went immediately to Chicago for Astou Ndour, a Spanish post who’s a star in Europe and has shown flashes in the WNBA but rarely for extended stretches. Her three-year 185k max deal is a risk for a player with that resume but Ndour is still only 25 and in a perfect world she’ll break out along the lines of Natasha Howard once presented with greater opportunity. The Wings will also be hoping that the cash encourages Ndour to participate in the league more consistently, as her commitments with Spain have often led to her missing significant time in the WNBA.
With Ndour coming in, Dallas gave up on a previous frontcourt project, trading Azura Stevens to Chicago for Katie Lou Samuelson and a first-round pick. Stevens has been an intriguing prospect since entering the draft early in 2018 but struggled with injuries last season. Meanwhile Samuelson had injury issues of her own in her rookie year and never seemed to gain the confidence of Sky head coach James Wade. Both players now get a fresh chance on teams where they may be a better fit.
The Wings also re-signed starting forward Isabelle Harrison, along with a raft of fringe deals which included Samuelson’s sister Karlie. Glory Johnson left for Atlanta as a UFA, creating a hole which may well be filled by expected #2 pick in the draft, Baylor’s Lauren Cox (although early entries like Oregon’s Satou Sabally could shake that up). Exactly what Dallas is going to do in the draft now becomes their key question. After the Diggins-Smith deal, last year’s Liz Cambage trade and their own poor 2019 season, the Wings now own the #2, #5, #7 and #9 picks in the 2020 draft. That’s a lot of rookies to try to fit in on an already young roster. More deals could be on the way, especially considering head coach Brian Agler often favoured veterans during successful stints in Los Angeles and Seattle.
Chicago Sky
The biggest change for Chicago came from being on the other side of that Samuelson/Stevens switch, which offers them an intriguing new option at power forward. If healthy, Stevens provides length and mobility which they haven’t had in the recent past, and a different look from post players like Stefanie Dolson, Jantel Lavender and Cheyenne Parker. Dolson herself recently re-signed in a two-year contract just below the max that actually declines slightly, and starting shooting guard Allie Quigley was also re-signed. Star point guard Courtney Vandersloot’s own reported new contract is also expected to become official shortly.
The Sky had so many people to re-sign this offseason that there was always likely to be a casualty or two, and ultimately that was Astou Ndour. Letting her leave is a risk, especially as she has more potential to develop compared to an established veteran like Dolson who is a known commodity. Along with the trade for Stevens as a replacement, James Wade chose to spend the money that could’ve gone to Ndour on backup wing Kahleah Copper. She also still has the potential to grow from the 15 minutes per game backup she’s been throughout her four-year rookie contract and has shown flashes at times during that period. Whether she’ll have the opportunity to flourish with Quigley and Diamond DeShields ahead of her on the wing, and whether giving her 165k to be their backup was a smart use of resources, remains to be seen.
Atlanta Dream
Atlanta was the worst team in the WNBA last year, which can make it difficult to attract quality free agents. Fortunately for the Dream, Courtney Williams grew up in Georgia which made them her first choice, and the trade detailed above makes their offseason look much rosier. Until then it had been a series of smaller moves and signings that they were hoping might help build some depth. A trade with Los Angeles gave up one of Atlanta’s leading scorers in Brittney Sykes but brought back a center with true size in Kalani Brown, something they haven’t had for a long time. While Elizabeth Williams can be productive inside, she’s often undersized against the league’s giants. Brown gives them a prospect at center that many people loved coming into the 2019 draft, and someone who may not have had the opportunity to show all her talents last year in LA.
The Dream also added UFAs Glory Johnson to deepen their post options further (helping make Jessica Breland expendable in the Williams trade), and Shekinna Stricklen to give them shooting on the wing (and replace Sykes). They’re not splashy moves, but they’re part of refreshing a roster that definitely needed attention. The splash came with Williams, who offers actual hope that Atlanta could move in a positive direction in 2020.
Washington Mystics
Losing Kristi Toliver hurts, but Mike Thibault made a nice move to paper over that hole by adding Leilani Mitchell. She had the best season of her career last year in Phoenix, and while she’s not the creator that Toliver is she can shoot the lights out from the perimeter. Mitchell also offers some extra ballhandling, which was necessary with Toliver gone and Natasha Cloud the only real option remaining at point guard.
The Mystics also locked up MVP Elena Delle Donne for four more years, and re-signed Finals MVP Emma Meesseman - although only for one year, which could be a concern down the line. Both were expected moves, but Washington’s decision not to core either of them shows the confidence they have in the relationships they’ve built with their players. Unfortunately for the Mystics their relationship with Toliver wasn’t enough to keep her in town once the power of the almighty dollar came into play.
Seattle Storm
Similar to Washington, Seattle have so far re-signed their superstar and made one fringe move. The re-signing was Breanna Stewart, who only signed for two years, but that’s no cause to worry. Under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, if you’re not signing an extension to a rookie-scale contract, you become eligible for the supermax after five years of WNBA experience. Having missed last season due to injury, Stewart currently only has three. So the two-year deal takes her up to the new supermax threshold, at which point the Storm will hope to re-sign her again for as long as possible. It’s a reasonable choice by Stewart.
The other deal was a trade with Connecticut, acquiring Stewart’s former UConn teammate Morgan Tuck for the cost of moving down from #7 to #11 in this year’s draft. Tuck was never entirely convincing in Connecticut and often struggled for playing time or to look fully healthy, but she does have some inside-outside skills if she can stay on the floor. The contract is structured with only the first year of a two-year deal guaranteed, so Seattle can escape if things don’t work out or they find themselves desperate for cap room next offseason. In a truly ideal world maybe she becomes Alysha Clark’s eventual replacement at small forward, and/or a useful backup for Stewart and Natasha Howard inside.
Indiana Fever
Indiana matched an Atlanta offer sheet to restricted free agent Tiffany Mitchell (a fairly reasonable and movable three-year deal) and re-signed fellow wing Betnijah Laney. As mentioned earlier in regards to Atlanta, it’s hard to attract players when you’ve been unsuccessful for a while (unless you get lucky and they’re coming home). The Fever will be hoping for growth from within, help from new head coach Marianne Stanley, and a boost of talent from the #3 pick in the draft.
New York Liberty
The Liberty have been quiet, merely signing point guard Layshia Clarendon as a UFA. They’ll be hoping that she’s the steady hand who can help presumptive #1 pick Sabrina Ionescu learn the WNBA ropes while either playing alongside her or backing her up. Clarendon was reasonably cheap on a team that isn’t hurting for cap space anyway. It was certainly a less costly deal than the one that tempted Bria Hartley away from the Liberty to Phoenix.
The big remaining question for New York is the Tina Charles situation. The Liberty cored her, retaining her rights, but we’ve seen many times in the past that players can force their way out from that position. She was linked publicly with a move to Phoenix, but the Mercury gave up a lot of their limited assets in the deal for Diggins-Smith and now appear to have moved on entirely with the trade for Breland and Coffey. While Charles had easily the worst season of her career last year she’s still only 31 and was expected to help lead the Liberty into their new era in Brooklyn alongside Ionescu. The return from a trade would obviously be important, but giving Charles up would leave a big hole in the paint that New York’s current roster would struggle to fill.
The Liberty also have several reserved players left to sign - players who can only negotiate with their previous team - in Marine Johannes, Reshanda Gray and Nayo Raincock-Ekunwe. Those deals are usually fairly straightforward, and the main question is whether Johannes will show up in an Olympic year. After flashing some exciting talent in her stint last year it’d be nice to see her return.
Minnesota Lynx
Last and somewhat least, the Lynx have done literally nothing to this point in free agency. Like everybody else, they made their pitches for the stars that were available, but unlike many others once they struck out they decided to sit on their money. At some point they’re going to have to add some guards, because Danielle Robinson has left for Las Vegas, Odyssey Sims will miss at least some time due to pregnancy and even Seimone Augustus currently remains unsigned. Right now they have Lexie Brown as virtually their only available guard.
They also have reserved players to handle, with Temi Fagbenle and Cecilia Zandalasini hopefully returning at some stage. But for the Lynx it’s now likely to be a waiting game. As we saw in the NBA in 2016 when the salary cap leapt up significantly, many teams spent big and regretted it in future years. This is the WNBA’s closest analogue, and the changes to the cap structure are such that you now have to be smarter and plan more carefully. Minnesota will be hoping that either via trade or free agency, they’ll be best-placed to take advantage when all this madness starts again in 2021.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs and shirts!