Lessons learned from the 2022 WNBA Mock Offseason
On the brink of the WNBA's 2022 free agency period, we take a look at what can be learned from our mock exercise before reality takes over
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One of the most fascinating parts of our Mock Offseason exercise is what it reveals about the state of play around the WNBA that you might not have otherwise realized. Initially, it forces each of us playing as General Managers to take a close look at the roster and cap situation of our teams, and see exactly what might be possible. Then, as events continue to play out, you begin to see what's possible to accomplish and what might be very tricky. Obviously, it won't be a perfect representation of reality - last year it turned out that our fake version wasn't anywhere near as crazy as reality - but it lets you see the possibilities. As a prelude to the opening of the real WNBA free agency period on January 1, let's take a look at some of the lessons learned from our Mock reality. All our deals are in the summary article, and all the real existing contracts are in our Cap Sheets (which will be consistently updated with new deals when they begin being signed).
Reloading Contenders
Seattle Storm
PG: Sue Bird, Jordin Canada
SG: Jewell Loyd, Riquna Williams
SF: Angel McCoughtry, Katie Lou Samuelson
PF: Breanna Stewart
C: Tina Charles, Ezi Magbegor
Perhaps the most remarkable series of events came in Seattle, where mock GM Kevin Pelton both managed to retain all his superstars and bring in a star-studded supporting cast via free agency. As I felt like I was repeating ad nauseam in my offseason cap/roster breakdowns, this illustrated the double-edged sword of having lots of open roster spots and cap space - it's scary initially that no one is locked in, but it opens up a world of possibilities.
The first decision that Kevin had to make - and that the Storm in reality will have to handle - was who to core. He chose Breanna Stewart, which is perfectly reasonable given that you can't afford to lose a superstar of her caliber for nothing. However, there is the alternative of trusting in their relationship with Stewart and the statements she's made about Seattle being home, thereby opening up the core designation for Jewell Loyd. If she isn't cored, Loyd will definitely have suitors. It was slightly surprising in the podcast that there weren't more teams chasing her, but maybe some were a little gun-shy that early on. It was, however, an immediate illustration that for the top tier of free agents they need to want to leave or it's hard to make a compelling case from outside. She can win in Seattle, they can pay her more and for an extra year, and she knows she's a comfortable fit. Chicago definitely wanted to make a push, but it'll be difficult unless several players are willing to take discounts and/or Allie Quigley retires.
Then the unexpected elements started to kick in. By avoiding long-term commitments in previous years (sometimes by choice, sometimes not), Seattle has a lot of cap space even beyond Stewart, Loyd and the hopeful Bird return. That could be for restricted free agents Mercedes Russell and Jordin Canada, or as GM Pelton illustrated could be used to hunt big game. He managed to add Tina Charles, Angel McCoughtry and Riquna Williams, and then still brought back Canada - only Russell was sacrificed. These are moves that would absolutely make them the darling of the experts in preseason, and show how superstars and winning attracts other talent. When the money isn't much different, players with choices are usually going to go to teams with the best chance to win. Sometimes they want playing time or every last possible cent, but the ring is still the thing. Charles and McCoughtry are currently two of the WNBA's greatest to still not possess one.
Chicago Sky
PG: Courtney Vandersloot, Dana Evans
SG: Allie Quigley, Courtney Williams
SF: Kahleah Copper
PF: Azurá Stevens
C: Candace Parker, Ruthy Hebard
After finally winning their championship, the key in Chicago felt like retention. Vital pieces like Vandersloot, Copper and Quigley needed to return if at all possible, with the remaining space used to either strengthen or bring back reserves like Diamond DeShields and Stefanie Dolson.
As with Seattle, the first decision was coring, again with multiple options. Vandersloot is probably the more essential player, but it felt like using it on her was likely unnecessary and might upset her rather than create an advantage. So Copper was cored, and ultimately all three key free agents returned and all for less than their possible maximum salary. The problem was that even with those discounts (Vandersloot at 200k, Quigley 150k, Copper 210k) adding another max player essentially didn't add up. The most I could have given someone like Loyd would've been around $160,000 - more than $35,000 below the max and nearly $70,000 less than Seattle could pay her. It showed that adding someone like that is probably only going to be possible in Chicago this offseason if a player like Quigley or Copper is gone.
Courtney Williams seemed like a worthwhile gamble to me. Yes, there have obviously been off-court issues in Atlanta, but Chicago has solid veteran talent who should be able to keep her in line. The upgrade from what DeShields gave them last year seemed worth moving on to Williams instead, who still has a higher ceiling than she's shown in Atlanta or Connecticut if a coach can talk her into fewer mid-range shots. In this exercise DeShields and Dolson both left for more money than Chicago could offer, and the bench would still need filling out. But between the No. 6 pick in the draft and the remaining cap room to offer around 100k to one of the free agents we didn't get to, that would still be relatively straightforward.
Las Vegas Aces
PG: Chelsea Gray, Destiny Slocum
SG: Kelsey Plum
SF: Jackie Young
PF: A'ja Wilson, Dearica Hamby
C: Liz Cambage, Kiah Stokes
Las Vegas managed to retain their stars, but that was about it. Coring Cambage saw her re-sign for one more year, and as an RFA A'ja Wilson was never going anywhere unless she demanded out. Signing Wilson for one year may well mean they need that core designation for her in 12 months, so this could potentially be the final run for this group with Cambage, Chelsea Gray, Kelsey Plum and Dearica Hamby all in their final contract year in 2022 as well.
Having those veterans under contract was what prevented Vegas from the sort of free agency attack we saw in Seattle. Once Wilson and Cambage were re-signed they couldn't offer anyone else more than around $110,000, which led to Riquna Williams and Angel McCoughtry both walking out the door and no replacements coming the other way. Some teams are definitely starting to see the effect of the CBA signed in 2020 and how they have to be more careful managing the numbers these days. Vegas had Williams on a cheap deal in 2021 due to free-agent money running out around the league (and possibly a lack of offers due to her off-court issues). The Aces may need to shop around for more bargains to fill out their rotation in 2022.
Good, but Constrained
Connecticut Sun
PG: Jasmine Thomas
SG: Briann January, DiJonai Carrington
SF: DeWanna Bonner, Kaila Charles
PF: Alyssa Thomas
C: Jonquel Jones, Brionna Jones
The primary element here was obviously retaining Jonquel Jones, which was immediately achieved. With the help of the core designation, and only for one year, but it got the job done (she would likely be cored again 12 months later in this scenario). Then things got complicated.
As in 2021, the Sun have very little cap space, which is going to make it difficult to make moves beyond re-signing Jones. In the Mock, Briann January re-signed for $89,500, but that perhaps reflects how things can get lost in the frantic nature of compressing this entire exercise into a few hours. If she signed for that much, Connecticut would not be able to retain reserved player Natisha Hiedeman (who we didn't address in the podcast) unless they cut Kaila Charles. Even then, they would have to fill out the bottom of their roster with minimum salaries, having to either cut or stash their 2022 first-round pick.
Assuming they want to keep Charles and Hiedeman, and roster the No. 12 pick in the draft, the most they could give January would be $78,472. Which is an illustration of how awkward things are in Connecticut, and how they may have to look elsewhere for options.
Phoenix Mercury
PG: Skylar Diggins-Smith, Bria Hartley
SG: Diana Taurasi
SF: Sophie Cunningham, Leaonna Odom, Megan Walker
PF: Brianna Turner, Crystal Bradford
C: Brittney Griner
Phoenix is another team that is so top-heavy that they had to make moves around the fringes to try to fill out their roster and support their stars. GM Merchant managed to tempt Sophie Cunningham into returning, despite the real-life team having rejected her 4th-year option. A deal for a 2nd-round pick got them Leaonna Odom as another wing alternative, and Crystal Bradford was picked up as an inexpensive reserve, hoping she can replicate her promising season in Atlanta with less off-court drama. The final two spots would have to be filled with young players on minimum contracts, and the Mercury wouldn't have any picks in the first two rounds of the 2022 draft.
Even to make those moves, Kia Vaughn had to be released immediately and reserved guard Shey Peddy would have to beat out someone like Megan Walker to make the roster. Unless Diana Taurasi retires or the Mercury swing a big trade, they're going to be counting pennies this year both in Mock-land and reality.
Minnesota Lynx
PG: Layshia Clarendon, Crystal Dangerfield
SG: Aerial Powers
SF: Kayla McBride, Rennia Davis
PF: (Napheesa Collier), Damiris Dantas, Jessica Shepard
C: Sylvia Fowles, Natalie Achonwa
As this played out in our Mock, the Lynx seemed fairly straightforward. Once Sylvia Fowles decided she was returning, she got the supermax deal that her tenure with Minnesota and her continuing level of play demands, and then Layshia Clarendon got pretty much everything they had left. There were no free-agent additions because there was neither cap space nor roster spots for them.
The question is what would happen next. The ten players listed above - and Napheesa Collier would still count in full on the cap, even if moved to the Pregnancy/Childbirth List - would leave less than $80,000 in space. So one spot left for Bridget Carleton, the No. 8 pick in the draft, the return of Cecilia Zandalasini, or anyone else they might want to sign. As this exercise indicated, if Fowles returns, this may well be an 11-player roster in 2022 - and one of those 11 would be Collier, who'd be expected to miss much of the year.
Bad Teams Looking to Spend
Indiana Fever
PG: Danielle Robinson, Kysre Gondrezick
SG: Kelsey Mitchell, Marine Johannès, Aaliyah Wilson
SF: Tiffany Mitchell
PF: Jantel Lavender, Nia Coffey
C: Teaira McCowan
The Fever were a reflection of how difficult it can be to drag a team up from the bottom, unless you strike gold in the lottery. Attempts were made to add Emma Meesseman and then Myisha Hines-Allen as a power forward who would fit the timeframe of their current key players Kelsey Mitchell and Teaira McCowan, but both free agents ultimately went elsewhere. Eventually, worthwhile gambles on Nia Coffey and Marine Johannès were the most that could be achieved (Coffey a free agent tempted by playing time, Johannès a cheap trade when New York decided they were full up).
Attempts to trade Robinson and Lavender proved unsuccessful, but those 2021 deals should hopefully at least be a lesson for 2022. If you strike out on the top tier, don't overpay for players lower down the list who aren't going to move the needle. In this Mock universe the Fever would hope to see development from their youth, add another lottery pick, maybe see someone like Coffey or Johannès break out, and then go again the next year. They're also one of very few teams with meaningful cap space remaining, creating opportunities if another team desperately needs to dump a contract at some point (as with Odyssey Sims and Minnesota last season).
For the record, I would also be hoping to bring back Julie Allemand and at least bring players like Lindsay Allen, Victoria Vivians, Temi Fagbenle, Chelsea Perry and Bernadett Határ to camp. However, we ran out of time for players like that whose exclusive rights were held by their existing teams.
Atlanta Dream
PG: Chennedy Carter, Aari McDonald, Maite Cazorla
SG: Tiffany Hayes
SF: Diamond DeShields
PF: Isabelle Harrison, Tianna Hawkins
C: Stefanie Dolson, Elizabeth Williams, Charli Collier
A swift rebuild here resulted in a team that would at least be intriguing heading into the 2022 season. It's hard to project exactly what's going on with Chennedy Carter from the outside, but GM Barzilai took the reasonable decision to hold on to her and hope relationships can be rebuilt on a reshaped roster. Tiffany Hayes may have been the most surprising of the core decisions made by our GMs, but on a team with so much cap space they could afford the resulting overpay.
Dealing Cheyenne Parker away brought back a solid veteran replacement in Isabelle Harrison and potential for the future in last year's No. 1 pick Charli Collier. Other veteran posts were added on reasonable contracts with Elizabeth Williams re-signing and Stefanie Dolson coming in from Chicago. On the wing, Diamond DeShields was another relatively inexpensive contract that was a worthwhile gamble that she might fulfill more of her potential than we've seen in the last couple of years in Chicago.
None of the free agents besides Hayes was signed for more than $130,000, or for more than two years. It's an indication that even if you don't manage to attract any of the top tier of available players, a team with space can build a useful roster with the potential to develop. They'd also have a lottery pick coming in on top, and even more cap space than Indiana to potentially swallow someone else's bad contract.
New York Liberty
PG: Sabrina Ionescu, Jazmine Jones
SG: Sami Whitcomb, DiDi Richards
SF: Betnijah Laney, Michaela Onyenwere
PF: Emma Meesseman, Jocelyn Willoughby
C: Natasha Howard, Mercedes Russell, Kylee Shook
There were a lot of moving parts and things going on in New York. As illustrated by the machinations of GM Corriette, New York's young roster means they do actually have plenty of room to spend on free agents, but only if they shed bodies. There are so many players under contract, and they all count against the cap until traded away, waived, or agreeing to be suspended. So they gave up on Asia Durr, Han Xu, Marine Johannès, Leaonna Odom and others for very little in return, splashing out big money on Emma Meesseman and Mercedes Russell to significantly strengthen their post corps instead.
There's definite logic behind the moves. Meesseman's still only 28, and if she makes the commitment to show up every year that's a home-run move for a team that was light in the post last season. Three guaranteed years for Russell, starting at $170,000, would be a gamble - especially with Meesseman and Natasha Howard presumably ahead of her in the rotation. If those two stay healthy then Russell becomes a very expensive defense-first backup, whose value may depreciate if she doesn't play that much. The Liberty also suddenly become a top-heavy roster who can only fit 11 players under the cap (and the No. 5 pick in this year's draft would have to beat out one of the backups listed above to make the team). However, regardless of whether the players they chase in reality are Meesseman and Russell or other big fish, it's an illustration of the options available to the Liberty this offseason.
Limited by the Cap
Los Angeles Sparks
PG: Erica Wheeler, Moriah Jefferson
SG: Brittney Sykes, Arella Guirantes
SF: Gabby Williams
PF: Nneka Ogwumike, Jasmine Walker
C: Amanda Zahui B, Chiney Ogwumike
The pile of veterans on guaranteed contracts in Los Angeles left GM Merchant with limited options. Maybe a complete tear-down is possible - presumably starting with a Nneka Ogwumike trade, assuming she's willing to play elsewhere - but it would be complicated and painful. Some of the other contracts on the books were undoubtedly difficult to move. Instead, it was just a matter of deals around the fringes. A trade with Dallas sent Kristi Toliver to the team near where she's working in the NBA as a coach, bringing back Moriah Jefferson (also with only one year left on her ugly contract) and adding a first-round pick. Having given up their own first-rounder in a trade last year, that was a positive gain. Otherwise, it's simply a matter of hoping better health and the arrival of Gabby Williams will lead to an improvement from last year.
Nia Coffey left for more money elsewhere, illustrating the constraints affecting the Sparks. The most they could offer any free agent even after the slight saving from Jefferson-for-Toliver was around $112,000, and none of that could be guaranteed because they already have the maximum of six guaranteed deals on their books. Barring the complete demolition option it's going to be hard for LA to make moves this offseason. On the bright side, every veteran on the roster is heading into the final year of their contract, so this time next year they are going to have a lot of options.
Dallas Wings
PG: Kristi Toliver, Tyasha Harris
SG: Arike Ogunbowale, Marina Mabrey, Chelsea Dungee
SF: Allisha Gray
PF: Satou Sabally, Kayla Thornton
C: Cheyenne Parker, Bella Alarie, Awak Kuier
Trapped in the same roster crunch that Dallas has been navigating for years now, GM Pelton didn't manage to pull off a blockbuster move for a star but did find some new veteran help for the young Wings roster. Isabelle Harrison and Charli Collier became Cheyenne Parker in a deal with Atlanta, in the hope that Parker could become the player she hinted at in her final season with Chicago in 2020. The final year of Moriah Jefferson's bulky contract and the lesser of their first-round picks became Kristi Toliver, hoping she can bring more stability and shooting to the Wings backcourt (assuming she's healthy).
Each of those deals being a two-for-one means there would only be 11 rostered players, opening up space for their lottery pick to make the roster without giving up on anyone else. Alternatively, if the pick were to beat out someone listed above, there would still be around $100,000 in space for someone else to be added. This part of the exercise showed that Dallas doesn't have to be stuck in this endless grind of drafting youngsters, rolling picks over and hoping people develop. But to make meaningful changes, they will have to make some real decisions on one or two of their recent picks.
Washington Mystics
PG: Natasha Cloud
SG: Ariel Atkins
SF: Alysha Clark, Rebecca Allen
PF: Elena Delle Donne, Myisha Hines-Allen
C: ?
Once again, this was an illustration of how difficult it can be to build and manipulate a WNBA roster these days when all your key players are on high-end veteran contracts. Tina Charles walked away for a better chance at a ring elsewhere, which at least left behind enough room to retain Myisha Hines-Allen - although her desirability elsewhere pushed her cost to a three-year guaranteed max deal. That left limited space and limited options for the Mystics.
They managed to pick up Rebecca Allen late in our process for a relatively cheap $93,000 and that would be essentially the end of their spending in this scenario. Their lottery pick would take up any remaining space, forcing the rest of the roster to be minimum contracts. Barring trading away someone like Alysha Clark (or an unfortunate retirement), the Mystics only have room for one big deal this offseason. In our Mock it was Hines-Allen, and then there wasn't much else they could do. Even the limited space needed for Allen required Sydney Wiese and Erica McCall to be released at an earlier stage. All this while waving goodbye to Charles, and being unable to bring back Emma Meesseman. It's going to be just as tricky an offseason for Mike Thibault as it was for GM LeBlanc, although their good fortune in winning the Draft Lottery will help.
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First I would like to point out is Howard is a power forward not a center. Also Meissen is also a forward. Why would Russell go to New York and come off the bench. In Seattle she was a starter so if she isn't a starter I see her staying in seattle