2022 WNBA Salary Cap and Roster Breakdowns: Part 2
We continue to examine and explain the state of rosters around the WNBA heading into the 2022 offseason
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?
On Wednesday, we brought you the first six of our 2022 WNBA roster breakdowns. We do all the math and explain the roster situations for each team, especially where they stand in regards to the salary cap and options available heading into free agency. Below, you’ll find analysis for the remaining six teams.
Los Angeles Sparks
Without trades, retirements, or cheap buyouts, the Sparks have virtually no room to do anything. When you add Gabby Williams to this year's group, they have six players signed to guaranteed contracts, which is the maximum (free agents of any value tend to want guaranteed money, so that would be a significant restriction). If they keep Brittney Sykes (underpaid and on an unprotected contract), Arella Guirantes and Jasmine Walker (both on cheap rookie-scale deals) they'd only have $157,417 left for two roster spots. Te'a Cooper, Lauren Cox and Maria Vadeeva are all reserved, and hence could be left to re-sign for the base minimum of $60,471 and battle it out (along with Guirantes and Walker and anyone else they can add for the minimum) for spots on the end of the bench.
They'd have around $100,000 for their 11th roster spot, which could go to Nia Coffey or anyone else they can attract. But even with the appeal of LA that would be a significant discount for any meaningful free agent. Of course, if someone like Chiney Ogwumike or Kristi Toliver were to retire, or if they traded Nneka Ogwumike to shift into a more genuine rebuild, then all the math changes dramatically. But right now, their 2022 roster is already pretty locked.
Minnesota Lynx
Last year, the Lynx had lots of room to do whatever they wanted. Cheryl Reeve went spending with that space, and those contracts are now making things look a little tighter this year. Sylvia Fowles is the major unknown element in any 2022 calculations. Coming off a contract from the previous Collective Bargaining Agreement that left her significantly underpaid in 2021, Fowles would be due a big raise if re-signed. However, she didn't sound certain about her future in interviews after the Lynx's playoff exit. If she walks off into the sunset, the Lynx will obviously have a lot more money to spend, but also a huge hole to fill.
If the Lynx keep the eight currently under contract for 2022, and Bridget Carleton (reserved) returns on the vet minimum ($72,141), the Lynx would have nine players signed for $1,019,143. That leaves $360,057 in cap space for two or three spots. If Fowles returns, she'd have every right to ask for the supermax ($228,094), although given her relationship with the franchise, there's a chance she'd give them a discount. If they gave Fowles every cent, that would leave $131,963. Technically, that's enough for two players (one of them presumably the #8 pick they own in the 2022 draft). However, we haven't yet accounted for Layshia Clarendon, who spent most of the 2021 season as Minnesota's starting point guard. Clarendon could potentially cost most of that 132k to retain and leave the Lynx going into 2022 with an 11-player roster (and that first-rounder needing to beat someone out to make the team).
Also, none of that accounted for the possibility of Cecilia Zandalasini returning, or any efforts to retain local favorite Rachel Banham. Assuming Fowles comes back - which obviously the Lynx will be hoping is the case - it's all become a bit of a tight squeeze in Minnesota.
New York Liberty
Yet again, the story in New York is more about paring the roster down and trying to work out who to keep than worrying about space, although things are a little tighter than in recent years. There are only three expensive contracts on this roster - the three free agents they signed last offseason - with everyone else on a rookie-scale deal. They'll be hoping to see near-forgotten names like Asia Durr, Marine Johannès, Han Xu and Jocelyn Willoughby back in the fold next year, but if they're around they'll be beating out players like Leaonna Odom and Kylee Shook who have a similar cost.
The one slight complication is that while none of their contracts are guaranteed outside of the expensive three, they all count on the cap until waived or suspended (only first-year rookies or single-season minimum deals count as 'training camp contracts' that would cost $0 on the cap until the opening day of the season). So while the Liberty have $196,560 in cap space - just enough to give one free agent the max - they'd have to cut/trade/suspend people to make any additional signings beyond that. Their one meaningful free agent is Rebecca Allen, who they may well want to re-sign but maybe not until they see who's interested in joining from the free agent pool. The opportunity to make a splash is there again.
Phoenix Mercury
Assuming no trades or retirements, the Mercury have very little room to work with this offseason. Those four big deals at the top of their cap sheet eat up a lot of space. Let's assume for now that they keep the seven listed above as under contract for 2022. That would leave them $246,938 in cap space for at least four roster spots. Four players at the absolute minimum - so not even the veteran minimum for players with 3+ years in the WNBA, but only players with 0-2 years - costs $241,884. So none of the four could even be vet minimums, the absolute base cost of Kia Nurse, Sophie Cunningham, Shey Peddy or Alanna Smith, among others. Those players could, of course, re-sign for the minimum and then beat out Megan Walker or Kia Vaughn, but they can't be additions on top of the current seven. Nurse’s ACL tear in the playoffs means she may not be signing anywhere for 2022.
The Mercury may well release Vaughn, despite their comfort with her as a backup post. The difference between her $110,000 salary and a minimum deal would give them at least a little room to maneuver and retain/sign some players to fill out their roster. Otherwise they're going to be searching for young options to compete for those spots. The only other somewhat plausible option that could create cap space for the Mercury would be a Diana Taurasi retirement, which no one in Phoenix wants to see. However, if she did call it quits, they would immediately open up the supermax space that she currently occupies - and therefore create a lot more options in terms of chasing free agents or re-signing their own.
Seattle Storm
That's a bare-looking roster for Seattle in 2022 right now. Breanna Stewart, Jewell Loyd and Sue Bird are all unrestricted free agents, which is a scary situation for the Storm - especially after losing multiple key free agents last offseason. At this point in her career, no one is expecting Bird to play anywhere else if she plays, but they will be hoping for speedy clarity as to whether she's retiring or not. Even if she gives the Storm a discount to help with the cap math they'd need the room to pay her, and it affects how much they might give Jordin Canada or any other available point guard. They have their core spot available, which it seems likely they'll use on Stewart or Loyd. If they have any uncertainty about Stewart staying, she's the caliber of player that you have to core. At the very least you want value in a trade, even if she decided that she wanted to play somewhere else. If they're 100% certain Stewart wants to return, then coring Loyd would also be reasonable, as she'll have multiple max offers from other franchises. Seattle, obviously, will hope to retain both.
The unknown elements with the Big Three make the math rather difficult with the rest of the roster, because so much of it is hypothetical. If Bird, Stewart and Loyd all re-signed for somewhere between the standard max and the supermax, they'd have eight players under contract and something in the region of $350,000 left in cap space. Mercedes Russell and Jordin Canada (both restricted free agents) would be next on the re-signing priority list and could potentially both be retained as well, depending on what kind of offers they find on the open market. There's room there, but the Storm would have to decide whether it's worth matching what other teams are offering. Stephanie Talbot is also a restricted free agent that they might like to keep, but who may not cost much more than the veteran minimum.
That 350k of space - plus potentially a lot more if any of the three stars don't return - could also be used to dip into free agency, of course. That bare roster opens up opportunities to reload and if they can re-sign stars like Stewart and Loyd first, Seattle could be a very appealing destination.
Washington Mystics
With four expensive players already under contract for 2022, the Mystics are a little complicated for next season. Retaining unrestricted free agent Tina Charles, keeping restricted free agent Myisha Hines-Allen and talking Emma Meesseman into returning to play in the WNBA never really looked feasible. They have six players under contract and only $456,900 in space remaining. They could add $30,000 or so to that by swapping minimum players in for Sydney Wiese and Erica McCall but even then they couldn't afford to pay two of Charles, Hines-Allen, and Meesseman near-max money, never mind all three of them.
In interviews at the end of the season, Charles seemed unsure about whether she'll return. The Mystics can't core her (she's reached the allowed limit), so she's free to leave if she wants. You have to imagine that they'd like to retain her, given how central she was to everything they did in 2021, but it may be out of their hands. Charles walking away would at least make re-signing Hines-Allen more viable. She's likely to have plenty of offers from other teams, but Washington will have the right to match. They'll hope to at least have Charles's situation sorted out before having to make that decision.
Meesseman, like Charles, is an unrestricted free agent who could play anywhere she wants. Unfortunately for WNBA fans, there's a chance that she may not want to play anywhere in the US any more. Given the other players they'll be trying to retain, Washington may need a definitive answer on whether she wants to play earlier than they appeared to get in 2021. Keeping lots of space open for the possibility of her signing later on may not be an option this year.
One disappointing possibility that may have to be faced at some point is an early retirement from Elena Delle Donne. She's played three games of basketball in over two years now. An announcement like that obviously isn't something Washington or basketball fans in general would want to see, but it would change the calculations for their roster. This is a team that's only going to have money to spend on any free agents if they lose key pieces from the previous roster - so the math depends on who they manage to keep.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram.