Quick Takeaways from the WNBA's 2022 Qualifying Offer Period
What the core decisions made and qualifying offers sent out tell us heading into the negotiation period of 2022 WNBA free agency
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So we've hit January 15, which means the period where WNBA teams send out qualifying offers to make players reserved, restricted or cored is now over. Teams are now officially allowed to talk to players and negotiate deals, although nothing negotiated can actually be signed until February 1 (you may still see qualifying offers accepted during the remainder of January). Let's take a look at the decisions that were made in the opening weeks of 2022 and what they tell us about where free agency may be heading.
Cored Players
After going into free agency with the distinct possibility of as many as five teams using their core designation, we ended up with only three. Connecticut made the straightforward and expected move of coring Jonquel Jones, retaining the exclusive rights to the current league MVP. They'd presumably love to sign her to a long-term deal, but we'll see what Jones herself wants to do.
The other core qualifying offers were handed out by teams who had choices to make. Chicago cored Kahleah Copper, holding on to her exclusive rights while allowing Courtney Vandersloot to become a true unrestricted free agent. It's the same thing I did in our Her Hoop Stats mock offseason podcast, hoping to lock up the significantly younger player while trusting that Vandersloot's ties to the franchise and the area bring her back to the Sky anyway. Chicago may have been helped by the news that Sue Bird is intending to return for another year in Seattle - the area and team that always seemed most likely to attract Vandersloot if she was going to head anywhere else. The Storm could technically fit both Bird and Sloot on the same roster for a year, but it seems a lot less likely than chasing one star point guard to replace the last.
Seattle themselves were the other team to core a player, choosing to cement the exclusive negotiating rights to Jewell Loyd rather than Breanna Stewart. The primary reaction to this has to be that the Storm are as certain as they can possibly be - without having signed paperwork in their hands - that Stewart will return. Otherwise you don't allow an absolute superstar like her to become a true unrestricted free agent. That said, Stewart will be getting plenty of calls from other teams, just in case there's even a glint of a chance to tempt her away. If Loyd wants out she'll now have to request it, which certainly wouldn't be an unprecedented action from a cored player. But if, say, Loyd wanted to go home and play in Chicago, the Storm would now be in a position to demand a significant return for her.
Core Moves Not Made
The most glaring player who wasn’t cored was in Las Vegas, where the Aces allowed Liz Cambage to become a true unrestricted free agent. It wasn't an entirely shocking move. Cambage had a tumultuous 2021 pockmarked by injury, illness and off-court drama, and to guarantee her a supermax deal would make filling out the rest of their roster difficult in cap terms. However, given Cambage's impact when she's available and on the floor, she's not the sort of player that teams are usually willing to lose for nothing. She's still perfectly entitled to re-sign in Las Vegas anyway, of course, but this would seem to indicate that the Aces may no longer want her - at least not at supermax cost.
Where Cambage would go now becomes an open question. She's long been linked to the glitz and glamour of Los Angeles, but right now the Sparks have minimal cap space and zero spots for new guaranteed contracts. So unless they can make some moves to open up room, it's a marriage that seems unlikely until 2023. Cambage also recently split from her Disrupt The Game agent Allison Galer, just to complicate things even further. Could this be the first free agent contract to be negotiated via OnlyFans DMs?
The only other real possibility for a core move was in Atlanta. Personally, if I were in charge of the Dream, I'd likely have cored Courtney Williams. Even if you don't want her on your roster anymore, she surely still has some trade value. Maybe they were worried that she'd sign the core qualifying offer and refuse to go anywhere else, or they've gauged interest around the league and it isn't as high as I think, but to me that was the value move. Even if they didn't want to do that, the Dream have so much cap space that they could've cored someone like Tiffany Hayes to make sure she doesn't leave. Supermax for Hayes would've been an overpay, but barring a huge splash in free agency or the trade market, they're probably not going to use all their cap space this offseason. Hayes could be popular on the open market as a true free agent, especially if she's willing to take a little less money to go somewhere with a chance to win.
Qualifying Offers Not Made
Our cap sheets and free agent list designate players in the groups they're likely to fall into - assuming their previous team makes the qualifying offer to place them in that category. Sometimes, the team decides they don't even have enough interest in the player to make that offer (all one-year, non-guaranteed contracts for both reserved players and restricted free agents). Qualifying offers not given out this year include Crystal Bradford in Atlanta, which was an expected move after she was involved in the same off-court incident that led to the Dream washing their hands of Courtney Williams. After flashing some exciting skills in Atlanta last year, Bradford could draw meaningful interest as an unrestricted free agent, assuming that off-court drama doesn't scare everyone else off.
Elsewhere, Seattle chose not to send an offer to Karlie Samuelson, which wasn't a huge surprise after she signed late in the 2021 season to fill a gap and was only used in a very limited role. Phoenix saved the stamp/email by not bothering with qualifying offers to Sonia Vasić (still referred to by her maiden name of Sonia Petrović in WNBA circles, for some reason) and Angel Robinson. Vasić has retired, and Robinson hasn't been seen in the WNBA since 2018, so both of those were reasonable and largely meaningless moves.
Other Moves
Teams also used the opening couple of weeks of January to clear the decks a little for what's to come. Dallas waived 2020 draftee Luisa Geiselsöder, creating a little extra cap space for them to maneuver with. In a somewhat more surprising move, Atlanta waived Tianna Hawkins to create a lot more cap space, despite already having plenty. The Dream probably overpaid Hawkins last year to tempt her into leaving Washington, hoping that she might break out in a new role on a different squad. However, after a disappointing 2021 season, Atlanta decided to cut their losses and release her. As the entire contract was non-guaranteed, the Dream wipe away the whole $144,200 that Hawkins was scheduled to earn in 2022. They now have nearly a million dollars in cap space to spend in free agency - if they can attract enough quality players worth spending it on.
The other recognizable name waived in recent days was Megan Walker, whose WNBA career never really got started in New York or in Phoenix. The Mercury made that move because without releasing somebody (Kia Vaughn was the other realistic option besides Walker), they didn't have the cap room to give a qualifying offer to Kia Nurse. After her ACL injury in the 2021 playoffs, Nurse may well not even play in 2022, but the Mercury clearly felt that retaining her rights was more valuable than holding on to Walker. Still on her rookie-scale contract, there's at least a small chance that someone claims Walker off waivers to give her another chance. This time of year, it now takes five days to clear waivers.
Keep your eyes trained on Her Hoop Stats for further coverage of 2022 WNBA free agency, including explaining some of the deals that take place and bringing you details of the contracts that are ultimately signed. Follow both my personal twitter and the Her Hoop Stats account for the occasional piece of breaking news along the way. Enjoy the madness.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.
thx for bringing me up to speed